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Kosovo

Experts' Comment - 18 February 2008

Robin Shepherd, Senior Research Fellow on Europe, Chatham House

Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia on Sunday was long expected, as were the problems which have already come in its wake. While the leading European powers - Britain, France, Germany and Italy - as well as the United States are likely to recognise Kosovo quickly other major powers around the world as well as several countries in the EU itself have already indicated their opposition.

Russia, a long time ally of Serbia, tried but failed to get a resolution in the UN security council blocking Kosovo's declaration of independence but vowed to continue to oppose the move. China expressed "deep concern" at the move to independence. In the European Union, Spain, worried about a contagion effect on its own separatist movements, declared the move contrary to "international law". Other countries inside the EU with deep reservations about Kosovo's independence include Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Cyprus and Greece.

As far afield as Sri Lanka, governments concerned that Kosovo may set a precedent for restive minorities in their own countries have been vocal in making their displeasure known.

In Serbia itself, the mood was predictably tense with mobs having already attacked the US and EU missions in Belgrade and heated statements emerging from politicians across the spectrum.

The bottom line here is that independence for Kosovo was always going to be a messy affair. In the heat of the moment it looks like an insoluble situation. However, tempers may cool in the weeks ahead. Whatever happens, the United States and the leading members of the European Union must make good on their pledges to contain the situation in Kosovo while offering Serbia the long term prospect of membership in transatlantic structures such as the European Union and Nato.

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