Iran's regional position is key to its strength

23 August 2006

Key messages:

The 'war on terror' removed the Taliban and Saddam Hussein, Iran's two greatest regional rivals, and strengthened Iran's regional leverage in doing so;
Israel's failure to defeat Hizbullah has reinforced Iran's position as the region's focal point against US-led policy;
If seriously threatened, Iran has the potential to inflame the region yet further;
A US-sponsored military strike would be devastating for Iran, the Persian Gulf region and beyond

Iran's influence in Iraq has superseded that of the US, and it is increasingly rivalling the US as the main actor at the crossroads between the Middle East and Asia. Its role within other war- torn areas such as Afghanistan and southern Lebanon has now increased hugely. This is compounded by the failure of the US and its allies to appreciate the extent of Iran's regional relationships and standing - a dynamic which is the key to understanding Iran's newly found confidence and belligerence towards the West. As a result, the US-driven agenda for confronting Iran is severely compromised by the confident ease with which Iran sits in its region. This is the key finding of Iran, its Neighbours and the Regional Crises, a major new report published by Chatham House.

The report also looks into the ideology of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and unpicks Iran's complicated power structure. It claims that despite his popularity, Ahmadinejad neither holds an insurmountable position within Iran nor commands universal support for his outspoken foreign policy positions. The paper outlines the friction between Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, with the former increasingly trying to wrest control of foreign policy away from the extreme positions of Ahmadinejad and his hardline supporters.

On hostility with the US, the report argues that while the US may have the upper hand in 'hard' power projection, Iran has proved far more effective through its use of 'soft' power. According to the report, the Bush administration has shown little ability to use politics and culture to pursue its strategic interests while Iran's knowledge of the region, its fluency in the languages and culture, strong historical ties and administrative skills have given it a strong advantage over the West. The report also holds a cautious view of the Iran-Israel relationship. It outlines four future scenarios for the relationship between the two states, one of which is the creation of a 'cold-war' style nuclear stand-off should Iran achieve nuclear capability.

Dr Claire Spencer, Head, Middle East Programme said 'Iran's intricate relationships with other states in the region, as well as a number of sub-state actors within these countries, have put it in a remarkably flexible position from which to defend its interests'

Dr Ali Ansari, Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, said: 'Western policy towards the Middle East shows a complete lack of imagination. There is a world of opportunities between neglect and military action which has yet to be fully explored.'

Nadim Shehadi, Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, said: 'While the US has been playing poker in the region, Iran has been playing chess. Iran is playing a longer, more clever game and has been far more successful at winning hearts and minds.'

In the widest-ranging report of its kind, Iran's position in relation to all of the players in the Middle East and Asian regions is analyzed, with sections on Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, the GCC states, Turkey, Russia and the former Soviet states, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China and Japan.

NOTES FOR EDITORS:
Iran, its Neighbours and the Regional Crises is published by Chatham House and draws on the expertise of eighteen of its experts.

The report is available to download from this website free of charge. Printed hard copies will be available from 29 August, priced £8.00, including postage (£6.00 for Chatham House Members - please quote membership number). To order a printed copy, please email Laura Cooper or telephone: +44 (0)20 7314 3642. Payment is accepted by credit card or cheque made payable to 'Chatham House'. The report will also be on sale at Chatham House, priced £5.00 (£3.00 for Chatham House Members).

Contact:
Sam Hardy, Press Office: +44 (0)20 7957 5739 +44 (0)7946 642 205

Some contributors can be contacted direct:
Dr Claire Spencer: +44 (0) 20 7957 5714 +44 (0) 7808 721 303

Dr Ali Ansari: +44 (0) 7976 843 544

Nadim Shehadi: +44 (0) 7956 390 562

Robert Lowe: +44 (0) 20 7957 5737 +44 (0)7799 472 393

Gareth Stansfield: +44 (0) 1392 264105 +44 (0) 7764 499 727

CONTRIBUTORS:

Rime Allaf, Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House

Ali Ansari, Reader in Modern History, University of St Andrews and Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House

Maha Azzam, Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House

Olivia Bosch, Senior Research Fellow, International Security Programme, Chatham House

Laura Cooper, Administrator, Middle East Programme, Chatham House

Fadi Hakura, Founder, Conkura Consulting and Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House

Christopher Hood, Director, Cardiff Japanese Studies Centre, University of Cardiff and Associate Fellow, Asia Programme, Chatham House

Ayesha Khan, Centre of International Studies, University of Cambridge and Associate Fellow, Asia Programme, Chatham House

Robert Lowe, Manager, Middle East Programme, Chatham House

Yiyi Lu, Associate Fellow, Asia Programme, Chatham House

Valerie Marcel, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Development Programme, Chatham House

Yossi Mekelberg, Lecturer in International Relations and Politics of Development, Webster Graduate Centre, Regent's College and Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House

James Nixey, Manager, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

Gareth Price, Head, Asia Programme, Chatham House

Farzana Shaikh, Associate, Centre of South Asia Studies, University of Cambridge and Associate Fellow, Asia Programme, Chatham House

Nadim Shehadi, Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House

Claire Spencer, Head, Middle East Programme, Chatham House

Gareth Stansfield, Reader in Middle East Politics, University of Exeter and Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House

The Middle East Programme at Chatham House undertakes research and analysis on the politics and international relations of the Middle East and North Africa. The programme also provides a forum for the discussion of Middle East affairs by hosting conferences, seminars and meetings with visiting speakers.

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