Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict

30 September 2008

Six new briefing notes from the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House offer analysis and insight on the conflict in Georgia.

Culpabilities and Consequences

James Sherr, Head, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

Culpability in this conflict is not equal, but it is shared. Mikheil Saakashvili's decision to respond with force to Russian-sponsored provocation was rash and ill-considered. Russia, which primed the mechanism for the August war, has succeeded in transforming the political and military landscape in the south Caucasus. The West, which also carries responsibility for its policy failures in the region, has given some indications of a more positive approach. The task ahead is to strengthen the security of Russia's neighbours, restore confidence, and create the conditions in which Russia starts to question the value of a foreign policy based on 'spheres of influence'. Read briefing note >>

After the Battle: What the August War will mean for Russia's Domestic Politics

Dr Lilia Shevtsova, Carnegie Moscow Center; Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

The true driver of Russia's foreign agenda is the domestic situation. The Russian ruling class has returned to a traditional matrix of power which cannot exist without spheres of influence, macho posturing and the search for an enemy. The war provides essential support for the status quo, a status quo which is destroying all modernising impulses. However, the reserves of power and legitimacy needed to maintain this matrix are not unlimited; at some point the elite will face a choice between reform and collapse. The war in Georgia has brought forward this new moment of truth. Read briefing note >>

The Paradoxical Regional Implications of Russian Actions in Georgia

Professor Neil Macfarlane, St Anne's College, Oxford University

Across Eurasia, recent events have complicated the security agenda. Russia's show of force may deter external actors from contesting its policy towards neighbouring countries; however the subsequent recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia could embolden separatist movements within the Russian Federation itself, and further south in Nagorno-Karabakh. The internal security of Georgia is also now uncertain; the current show of national unity may soon dissipate as increasingly critical questions are asked about poor, if not rash, decision-making in Tbilisi. Read briefing note >>

Russia and Europe in the Aftermath of the Georgian Conflict: New Challenges, Old Paradigms

Dr Arkady Moshes, Finnish Institute of International Relations; Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

Following the Georgia conflict, Russia's policy towards the EU has been proactive, coherent, and well-articulated. European policy has been none of these things. Europe instinctively clings to the old paradigm of relations with Russia, which does not demand strategic goals to be formulated. The EU must find the courage to address the new reality, and give a greater strategic focus to its dealings with Russia. Read briefing note >>

US-Russian Relations After the Events of August 2008

James Nixey, Manager, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

Publicly unequivocal in its support for Georgia, the US is privately alarmed by President Mikheil Saakashvili's unpredictability and rashness. This may prompt a re-examination of the risks attached to Georgia's NATO candidature. As for Russia, the US is deeply concerned over the intentions of the regime, and uncertain about the most effective counter policy. The real challenge for the US is how to manage a Russia displaying a dangerous combination of vulnerability and over-confidence. Read briefing note >>

The August 2008 Conflict: Economic Consequences for Russia

Professor Philip Hanson, University of Birmingham; Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

The recent war in Georgia will have both positive and negative consequences for Russia's economy. Doubts over the future viability of energy transit routes through Georgia should assist Russia's market power in Europe, and strengthen its bargaining power vis-à-vis neighbouring oil and gas suppliers. In the longer term, however, the conflict may increase the perceived risk of conducting business in Russia and deter foreign investment. A best guess at the overall economic impact has a long-run net negative effect, superimposed on other factors slowing Russian growth. Read briefing note >>

Contact

Nicola Norton
Media Relations Manager
+44 (0) 20 7957 5739
+44 (0) 7917 757 528
nnorton@chathamhouse.org.uk

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