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The Black Sea Region after the Georgia Conflict

It was widely forecast that NATO's Bucharest Summit commitment that Ukraine and Georgia will become members of NATO, would change the dynamics of the Black Sea region whether NATO honoured the commitment or not. The Russia-Georgia conflict vindicated this forecast earlier but far more destructively than most had predicted.

In spring 2008, hopes were expressed that the Bucharest declaration would diminish pressure on NATO, enhance the confidence of Ukraine and Georgia, reign in the ambitions as well as the apprehensions of Russia and establish a measured and consensual approach to the next stage of enlargement. These hopes have been dashed.

Concerns over Nagorno-Karabakh, Crimea and the scheduled withdrawal of Russia's Black Sea Fleet have been amplified. The gap between NATO's principles, commitments and collective capacity has been starkly exposed and the value of US support brought into question. Nevertheless, it is far from clear that Russia will emerge as the ultimate beneficiary of these events. The conflict is stimulating reassessment of Russia's methods, means and intentions. Despite division and disorientation, neither NATO nor the EU display any inclination to accept Russia's claim of 'privileged interests' nor write off their own interests in Ukraine, the South Caucasus or the Black Sea region.

The focus of this project will be politics and security. It will examine the following key issues:

• The interests and aspirations of the region's post-Communist states (including the non-littoral BSEC members, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Moldova);
• The future of Georgia;
• The implications of South Ossetia's and Abkhazia's 'independence' on the region's other territorial conflicts;
• Sources of cohesion, division and vulnerability in post-Communist states still limited in their autonomy and capacity;
• The evolution of Russia's objectives and the tools and techniques of its influence;
• Implications for NATO policy and for its highly institutionalised presence in Ukraine and Georgia;
• The future of Georgia's armed forces and of defence and security sector reforms in Ukraine;
• The growing security profile of the EU (security sector reform; EUBAM, 'Black Sea Synergy') and its possible reassessment of membership perspectives for Moldova and Ukraine;
• The future relevance and efficacy of other institutional actors: e.g. BSEC, OSCE, GUAM.

Forthcoming Events:

• Implications of the Georgia conflict (co-sponsored by the FCO);
• The Black Sea Region after the Georgian Conflict (co-sponsored by the Titelescu Foundation in Bucharest) (to be confirmed);

Within the next few months, we will be organising three additional roundtable seminars:

• A comparative assessment of post-conflict dynamics on other territorial conflicts (Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Osetia);
• Crimea as a potential factor of instability (Russian economic presence and political interference, the Black Sea Fleet, inter-ethnic relations, Islamist penetration and the unspoken linkage between politics, business and crime);
• NATO enlargement: Is there a 'third way'?

Further Information

For more information about this project contact:

Alex Nice, Programme Administrator
Tel: +44 (0)20 7314 3627