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Ukraine's 2007 Elections

Experts' Comment - October 2007

Dr Andrew Wilson - Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

2007 has been another year of political crisis in Ukraine. The parliament elected in March 2006 was supposed to serve for five years, until 2011. In a close contest, the three 'orange' parties won an apparent initial victory, but were unable to reach an agreement to govern together. The defection of the Socialist Party to join an alternative coalition with the Party of Regions led to the return of President Viktor Yushchenko's nemesis Viktor Yanukovych as Prime Minister in July 2006. Yushchenko objected to Yanukovych's constant aggrandisement, and issued a shock decree ordering the dissolution of parliament in April 2007.

Elections were finally scheduled for 30 September, but how many problems will they solve? Opinion polls predict that Ukraine's regional voting divisions remain entrenched. The polls have also predicted the parties will finish in the same order. The Party of Regions' leaders agreed to an election because they thought they could win, and emerge all the stronger with a 'second mandate'; but a strong campaigning performance by Yuliia Tymoshenko could tip the balance back towards a new orange coalition.

Several small parties, some of which are covert allies of either Our Ukraine or Regions, are hovering close to the necessary 3% to win seats in parliament, and could also tip the balance. Leading moderates in Regions and Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party, mainly the two parties' respective business backers, are pushing behind the scenes for an 'historic compromise' coalition between the two. The time was not right just after the 'Orange Revolution', when the victorious orange parties wished to govern alone, and in 2006 Regions was in a revanchist mood. Now it may be possible - though both parties might split.

A final scenario is that there may constant legal challenges to a close result. Ukraine may face even more political instability, possibly all the way to the next presidential election in 2009 or 2010. Meanwhile, Ukraine is a test case for the neo-liberal proposition that economies actually do better without too much government. The economy continues to boom.

Please find a list of further resources below.

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Papers

The End of the 'Post-Soviet Space': The Changing Geopolitical Orientations of the Newly Independent States
Alexander Nikitin, February 2007

Ukraine on the Eve of the Post-Kuchma Era
Andrew Wilson, Hans Van Zon, James Sherr, Margot Light, Clelia Rontoyanni, October 2002

Meeting Transcripts

Members only contentThursday 2 February 2006
Meeting: Where Is Ukraine Going?
Yulia Tymoshenko, Former Prime Minister, Ukraine

Members only contentMonday 17 October 2005
Meeting: The Orange Revolution: Ukraine And Its Future In Europe
HE Victor Yushchenko, President Of Ukraine

The World Today

Ukraine: Oranges and Regions
Andrew Wilson, June 2007

Ukraine: Different Country, Different People (page 13)
Iain Elliot, January 2005

EU and Ukraine: Borderland (page 10)
Anna Reid, April 2004

Ukraine: Wild Dances (page 18)
Andrew Wilson, November 2004

Ukraine: Virtual politics, real corruption (page 13)
Andrew Wilson, June 2001

International Affairs

Members only contentBattle over the box: international election observation missions, political competition and retrenchment in the post-Soviet space
Rick Fawn, November 2006

Members only contentA Wider Europe: the View from Moscow and Kyiv, Margot Light, Stephen White And John Löwenhardt, January 2000

Books

Putin's Russia and the Enlarged Europe

Roy Allison, Margot Light and Stephen White, November 2006
This authoritative work examines recent changes in Russia's relations with the EU and NATO and explores the patterns of support for these various orientations among its own elites and public.

Ukrainian-Nato Relations and New Prospects for Peacekeeping

Leonid Polyakov, February 2003
This paper provides a cogent analysis of dvelopments which are playing an important part in the emerging security order in Eastern Europe.

Poland and Ukraine

Kataryna Wolczuk and Roman Wolczuk, December 2002
Outlines the traditionally difficult relations between Poland and Ukraine and assesses the changes in the last decade, which have resulted in very constructive bilateral relations between the two states.

Security Dilemmas in Russia and Eurasia

Edited by Roy Allison and Christoph Bluth, February 1998
The sixteen chapters of this book analyse the current security policy thinking and military ties of Russia, Ukraine and the Central Asian and Caucasian states, and assess their military and military-economic capabilities.

Ukraine and European Security

Tor Bukvoll, October 1997
This book is the first to rigorously analyse key issues in the consolidation of Ukrainian independence and cohesion.

Russians Beyond Russia: The Politics of National Identity

Neil Melvin, February 1995
This book contains detailed case studies to explore the development of a national identity within the Russian-speaking communities of five former Soviet republics: Estonia, Latvia, Moldova, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.




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