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Iraq in Transition: Vortex or Catalyst?
Briefing Paper
Middle East Programme, September 2004
There are three possible scenarios for Iraq in the 18-month transitional period which began with the handover of power on 28 June 2004. If the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG) or its successors fail to assert control over the country and/or its members quarrel with each other and the US, the country could progressively fall apart, or fragment. Alternatively, Iraq could hold together under the auspices of the transitional government, provided this has real power, a national security force begins to take shape, and the US presence is supportive but not overbearing. In addition, transnational or regional dynamics could overtake Iraq, such that it becomes simply the epicentre of a broader reconfiguring of Sunni/Shi'a, Arab/Iranian and Kurdish geopolitics - a 'regional remake'.
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