Independent Thinking: Is time running out for Ukraine?

President Biden has finally signed the $61 billion aid bill for Ukraine, but has help arrived too late for Ukraine and is momentum now back with Russia?

This paper discusses six kinds of humanitarian arrangements intended to provide some security to civilians caught in armed conflict – notifications, evacuations, humanitarian corridors, suspensions of hostilities, protected zones and no-fly zones – outlining relevant international law, identifying operational challenges, and making recommendations for good practice.

Alliance countries need better understanding of the risks to their undersea infrastructure, and improved signalling to deter Russian sabotage and hybrid attacks.

Beijing’s diplomatic activism shows it is worried Iran–Israel tit-for-tat may undermine Saudi–Iran reconciliation.

Direct clashes between Israel and Iran have brought the Middle East to the brink of a regional war. Will both sides de-escalate or have tensions reached the point of no return?

Conventional, publicly capitalized financial instruments are the only way to mobilize private finance on a very large scale.

The judgement shows litigation can be used to hold governments to account on their climate ambitions – but much will depend on policy outcomes.

While the global economy is showing signs of strong growth, public debt levels in emerging markets are rising at an alarming rate.

For Western governments, India’s status as the world’s largest democracy is one of the key pillars for engagement with New Delhi, even though India rarely uses democracy promotion as an overt tool of its foreign policy. There is potential, too, for an erosion of India’s democratic credentials to limit the scope for cooperation in particularly sensitive areas, and to raise questions about India’s claim to offer a worldview that is non-Western but not explicitly anti-Western.

The strikes demonstrated a more assertive approach from Tehran, but the region’s security now depends on Israel’s ability to play a longer game.

Israel’s attack signalled a shift in its strategy towards Iran. Tehran’s response and the US promise of ‘ironclad’ support for Israel risks escalation of this transnational conflict.

Prime Minister Kishida’s state visit to Washington focused on security, but that alone will not be enough to influence the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

Tehran’s dilemma is finding a response that maintains its position in the ‘axis of resistance’ but does not precipitate an escalation which it would likely lose.

Millions are at risk as a result of Sudan’s devastating civil war, but attention lies largely elsewhere. Has the world failed the people of Sudan?

As Modi heads towards a third term, concerns about India’s imperfect democracy will matter less to the West than its potential as a bulwark against China.

With a UN Security Council increasingly stymied by great power politics, the US and its regional allies must lead efforts to constrain an increasingly dangerous North Korea.

Turkey’s voters moved decisively against President Erdoğan in the local elections. Does this give an opening to the opposition in 2028?

Long-running border disputes between Ethiopia and Sudan are intersecting with other internal conflicts, bringing greater militarization and economic instability.

Amid civil war and territorial rivalry on both sides of the Ethiopia–Sudan border, sesame has become central to a conflict economy that perpetuates violence and political instability.

Germany’s national identity is being challenged amid its response to the wars in Gaza, Ukraine and a fraught relationship with France.

As climate change and the trade of water-intensive goods exacerbate global water scarcity, how can importers of commodity products improve the sustainable use of water at sites of production?

After a breakaway part of Moldova appeals for Russian protection, evidence mounts that Moscow is stepping up interference in the eastern European state ahead of key elections.

China’s long-term strategy around bases in Africa is unclear, but countries hosting them must also make political calculations.

As NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary, the UK must overcome its capability gaps to boost the alliance’s deterrence power and account for threats like China.

The UK’s new strategy highlights how clarity of purpose, careful calibration and flexibility can help ensure sanctions regimes are effective.

Co-hosted with Japan House, the event brought together Japanese, UK and Global South stakeholders to discuss how the G7 can find ways to improve understanding with developing countries.

Having a foreign secretary with status that is largely free of domestic political concerns matters, but a lack of strategy matters more.

Democracy is being challenged in Senegal and Nigeria while military dictatorships seize power in the Sahel region.

The Directive’s reduced scope will blunt its impact. But there will be much to learn from its implementation.

An April deadline for a decision to ‘snap back’ US and EU sanctions is approaching. The Biden administration must reimpose some measures – but in careful, calibrated fashion.