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The Petraeus Report - Implications for the UK

By Rosemary Hollis, Director of Research, Chatham House

General David Petraeus will make few converts with his testimony, so the Bush strategy is likely to remain on course. Some US troops will be able to come home, but there will be no mass exodus. For British policy in the region that is moderately good news in the near term. The continuance of the US presence in Iraq will at least avert a regional meltdown, even if US-Iranian hostility remains unresolved and dangerous.

Thus the British can proceed with their existing plans to draw down their military presence in southern Iraq and still argue that this is a reasonable response to objective conditions. Those conditions include a power struggle in the south between the main Shia factions, smuggling and corruption, pervasive Iranian influence and minimal sectarian or al-Qaeda violence.

By contrast, as Petraeus highlighted, in Baghdad US troops have been confronting mass sectarian killings, and in Anbar Province they have forged alliances with local tribal levies. To walk away now, he warned, would be to invite a free-for-all bloodbath. So Washington will choose to 'stay the course'.

This persistence will not necessarily fix Iraq, but will buy time - time for all the Iraqi factions, regional and international players to continue the consultations initiated this year by the Iraqi government. The United States, Iran and Syria are participants and their involvement chimes with Britain's assessment of the need for inclusive diplomacy.

While retaining diplomatic relations and some limited leverage with Damascus and Tehran, Britain's strongest ties are to the Gulf Arab regimes, Jordan, Egypt and Israel - all allies of Washington. Britain's role, therefore, can be as a bridge-builder, in the shadow of Washington, but with broader access.

However, by cutting troop numbers in Iraq, Britain will count less as a player there and thence in Washington. Moreover, there will be no compensating benefits in terms of Britain's influence over peace-making on the Arab-Israeli front. In this connection, British parliamentarians are calling for dialogue with Hamas, to which Washington and the Israeli authorities are implacably opposed.

On balance, therefore, the Petraeus verdict on Iraq will enable British forces to regroup and concentrate on other priorities, including Afghanistan. British commercial relations with the Arab Gulf states will also continue to flourish under the US regional security regime. But Britain's reputation in the wider Middle East will still be coloured by the Iraq adventure and its consequences, as well as the fate of the Palestinians, even though its capacity to affect either will most likely be diminished.

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