Al-Qaeda still significant but losing ground, says study

8 September 2006

Key messages:

• Al-Qaeda's image as a global player has been unintentionally enhanced by the US and its allies

• However, the US-led globally coordinated security measures have seriously undermined Al-Qaeda's communication, finance and recruitment networks

• One of Al-Qaeda's most significant propaganda gains is its successful creation of a commonly held view that there is a link between terrorism and regional crises - e.g. Israel-Palestine and Iraq

• Al-Qaeda has lost support with the 'Muslim street' - although it has disturbed the political status quo in the Middle East and prompted further terrorist attacks in Madrid and London

Al-Qaeda is facing a very serious challenge to its legitimacy and, because of its terrorist activities, is less popular than it could be in the Muslim world. Rather than increasing its support among Muslims, Al-Qaeda has witnessed increased support for moderate non-violent factions within the Islamist movements - as evidenced by the electoral victories achieved by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Worse still for Al-Qaeda, the post 9/11 terrorist activities it inspired in Madrid and London failed to resonate with the 'Muslim Street' even although its stature as a global player has been unintentionally enhanced by the US and its allies. These are some of the main findings of 'Al-Qaeda Five Years On: Threats and Challenges' a new Chatham House report to mark the fifth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks in 2001.

Dr Maha Azzam, author of the report, said: 'Five years after 9/11 a mixed picture of Al-Qaeda's fortunes is emerging. Although its image as a powerful terrorist organization has been enhanced, its leaders hide in caves and have lost the broad support of Muslims in the Arab world who oppose its terror tactics and its justification of violence in the name of Islam.'

However, the report argues that the more recent attacks such as those in London and Madrid have created an additional security problem with the emergence of a small minority within the West who find the Al-Qaeda cause appealing. The problem has therefore transformed from being one of terrorism finding its way to Europe's shores into terrorist activity that is partly home-grown.

The report also says that the hampering and foiling of terrorist plots reflect a large measure of success on the part of security services in the US, Europe and Pakistan, but the fact remains that terrorist attacks have continued over the past five years from Bali to Cairo and from Madrid to London, while the prospect of new attacks indicates a large degree of failure in eliminating the threat.

Finally, the report highlights how other regional issues have a unifying effect among Muslims. These include perceived injustices by Israel and the West towards the Palestinians, the ongoing and apparently worsening troubles in Iraq, and the recent conflict in Lebanon. These are all seen as major justifying forces behind suicide bombings. Because of this, the vast majority of Muslims - and now even some Western governments - increasingly accept that there is a link between regional crises and terrorism. The report views the successful linking of terrorism with these regional crises as a major propaganda gain for Al-Qaeda and it is here, perhaps, that Al-Qaeda has set in motion the most significant potential challenge for policy-makers.

Dr Maha Azzam said: 'Five years on from 9/11, one of Al-Qaeda's most significant and important successes has been the growing acknowldegment of the link between terrorism, regional concerns and Western governments' foreign policy. This is likely to affect and challenge policy-makers for some time to come.'

Notes for editors:
'Al-Qaeda Five Years On: Threats and Challenges' is written by Dr Maha Azzam and is published on Friday 8 September 2006 by Chatham House.

Dr Maha Azzam is an Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House.

Dr Maha Azzam is currently based in Boston.

For more information or to speak to the author please contact:

Sam Hardy
Chatham House Press Office
+44 (0) 20 7957 5739
+44 (0) 7946 642 205

Dr Maha Azzam
Tel: +1-781-893-1128
Mob: +1-339-222-6424

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