New paper outlines four scenarios for future of food supply

29 May 2008

With an increasing global population and the economic expansion of developing countries, new patterns of demand for food are being created. The Chatham House Food Project has outlined four scenarios in a new paper for food supply in the 21st century to examine the issues arising. The scenarios, outlined in a new interim briefing paper, Thinking About the Future of Food, are:

• Just a Blip - the present high price of food proves to be a brief spike with a
return to cheap food at some point soon

• Food Inflation - food prices remain high for a decade or more

• Into a New Era - today's food system has reached its limits and must change

• Food in Crisis - a major world food crisis develops.

In the light of the scenarios, the paper also assesses the national and global responses to changes to the supply of food that will be conditioned by uncertainties surrounding the availability of sufficient energy, water, land and skills. These issues will be analyzed thoroughly in a full report which will be published in October.

Note to editors:
Throughout 2008, Chatham House's work on food supply will be testing the responses of the UK's industry to international developments. Today's report is the result of a first series of interviews and discussions undertaken around Britain's wheat and dairy supply networks.

For further information please contact:
Sean Armstrong
Press Officer
Direct: +44 (0) 20 7957 5739
Mobile: +44 (0) 78 4985 3757

More about this project: UK Food Supply in the 21st Century: The New Dynamic

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