Reports and Papers

'Boffins' and 'Buffoons': Different Strains of Thought in Russia's Strategic Thinking

Briefing Paper
Yury E Fedorov, March 2006

Economic growth fuelled by exceptionally high oil and gas export revenues has provided Russia's top echelons with a feeling that a period of retreat and weakness is over.
Assurance of Russia's absolute sovereignty and restoration of its international status as a global great power are the principal aims of Russian foreign policy today.
To these ends, Moscow maintains a substantial nuclear force, uses its unique position as a major energy exporting country, has is establishing a strategic partnership with China, and is trying to restore its dominion over the new independent states.
Attempts to establish a 'new empire' are fuelling anti-Russian feelings in the new independent states. There are no 'pro-Russian' forces in the new independent states that would turn their countries into protectorates of Moscow were they to come to power.
Russia's emerging strategic relationship with China is highly asymmetrical and limited owing to the great disparity between the two countries' economies, and also because of differences in their strategic attitudes.
Incorrect assessment of the situation and overestimation of the nation's resources are resulting in unattainable goals being put forward. Frustration over inevitable failures will fuel hostility towards the West which could lead to Russia's self-isolation or semi-isolation.