Open for Business: Syria’s Quest for a Political Deal

Briefing Paper
Rime Allaf, July 2007

The Syrian regime no longer feels weak and as its prospects of survival improve, its self-confidence is increasingly apparent.
The tactics of Syria's opponents have mostly been counterproductive, giving the Syrian regime increased leverage. Attempted isolation has not weakened the regime and external pressure has strengthened its domestic position.
Meanwhile, its regional position has been bolstered by policy failures in Iraq and Lebanon.
The Syrian leadership is now betting on certain favourable developments which will continue to boost its confidence, both in the region and vis-à-vis Western policy.
It is futile to conduct policy towards Syria on the basis of antipathy towards the regime. Syria's national interests must be recognized for there to be progress.
Syria will not 'capitulate' to US demands merely to become another 'moderate ally'. The Syrian regime is not looking for popularity, but for recognition. It seeks a business deal rather than a love affair.