Reports and Papers

China's 17th Party Congress: Leadership, not Policy

Briefing Note
Kerry Brown, November 2007

China's five yearly Party Congress saw four new figures enter the Standing Committee of the Politburo, and three retire. One had died before the Congress.
The old factional divisions are breaking down. Elite politics in China is now increasingly resembling politics elsewhere - politicians with personal interests, loosely associated with allies, but with no one powerful enough to broker consensus.
Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang are the more prominent figures in the new leadership. However, neither has a clear advantage. The decision over who will replace President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao is likely to result in a political tussle lasting until the next congress.
The challenge over the next year for the new politburo will be to address China's massive internal problems to handle the increasingly fractious relationship with the US, particularly during a US election year, and to ensure that the Olympics is an unqualified success.
China's politburo leaders are, as never before, global figures. Their composition has never been more complex. The challenges facing them (resource allocation, economic growth, social stability, the environment) are increasingly in need of international solutions. Western leaders have to understand what makes them tick, how to interact with them, and how to work with them. The old parameters and received wisdom are breaking down, fast.