Thinking About the Future of Food: The Chatham House Food Supply Scenarios

Chatham House Food Supply Project, May 2008

Demand for food is increasing because the global population is rising and major developing economies are expanding. Global supply capacity, meanwhile, is struggling to keep up with changing requirements.
Four global food supply scenarios have been developed by the Chatham House Food Supply Project to consider the challenges created and their impact on the EU/UK:
- 'Just a Blip': what if the present high price of food proves to be a brief spike with a return to cheap food at some point soon?
- 'Food Inflation': what if food prices remain high for a decade or more?
- 'Into a New Era': what if today's food system has reached its limits and must change?
- 'Food in Crisis': what if a major world food crisis develops?
Across the world the responses to change will be conditioned by uncertainties surrounding the availability of sufficient energy, water, land and skills. EU/UK stakeholders need to start planning now to develop new food supply systems that are up to the task.