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After the Battle: What the August War will mean for Russia's Domestic Politics

Briefing Note (part of the Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict series)
Dr Lilia Shevtsova, September 2008

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The true driver of Russia's foreign agenda is the domestic situation. The Russian ruling class has returned to a traditional matrix of power which cannot exist without spheres of influence, macho posturing and the search for an enemy. The war provides essential support for the status quo, a status quo which is destroying all modernising impulses. However, the reserves of power and legitimacy needed to maintain this matrix are not unlimited; at some point the elite will face a choice between reform and collapse. The war in Georgia has brought forward this new moment of truth.

This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'.