Membership

Horn of Africa Group

What Drives Events in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia/Somaliland?

What Should the Outside World do About it?

A combined study hosted by Chatham House

Sally Healy OBE - Associate Fellow, Chatham House

The first phase of this research concluded in July 2008 with a comprehensive report on the region and its challenges - Lost Opportunities in the Horn of Africa: How Conflicts Connect and Peace Agreements Unravel. Details of the first phase can be found below. The second phase is focused on the economic dimensions of conflict and development in the region. More information >>

Summary

Chatham House, in association with the Royal African Society, the Rift Valley Institute and the Centre for African Studies at London University is producing a series of authoritative policy relevant options for the international community relating to the Horn of Africa. Using a combination of internal expertise, extensive global contacts and convening power, these allied independent research institutes are positioned to collect, analyse and interpret comprehensive information in this complex environment.

Why the Horn?

The Horn lies at a strategic crossroads linking the Middle East, Africa and the Indian Ocean. It is a source and transit route for ideas and commodities throughout these regions. Conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia have posed intractable challenges for the international community for some years. Existing global expertise on the region has been poorly utilised.

Who is it for?

The target audience is policy makers in and outside the region, diplomats, academics, opinion formers and those with an interest in the Horn of Africa. Its findings will be of interest and relevance to people involved in conflict resolution, regional dimensions of conflict, development assistance, good governance and counter-terrorism.

Areas the Series will Explore

How can the Outside World Help to Promote Peace?

The series seeks to understand why it is that apparent successes in conflict resolution, nurtured and funded by the international community, have turned out to be so many false dawns.

The 2000 Algiers Agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea ended the war but has yet to bring about an enduring peace. The Transitional Federal Government of Somalia, brokered so laboriously from 2002-4, has signally failed to bring government to Somalia. The seeming triumph of Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005 carried in its wake the deadly new conflict in Darfur. Is this just bad luck? Or are we missing something? Can the CPA survive? Why can't diplomacy make headway on the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict?

The Interplay of Local and Global Interests

The series explores the complex interplay of local and global interests, notable in the nexus of Somali-Ethiopian relations.

In 1977 these perennially hostile neighbours invoked Cold War allegiances to fight the Ogaden war. In a classic case of the tail wagging the dog, they managed to suck a reluctant US and USSR into their quarrel. Could this be repeated today? Ethiopian responses to the growth of Islamist rule in Somalia slot all too easily into the template of the so-called Global War on Terrorism. Could the Islamic Courts have brought law, order, justice and unity to Mogadishu? Or are they a front for Al Qaeda? What are US perspectives on the Horn of Africa as a theatre for counter terrorism?

Problems of Governance

Governance constitutes the third major thread.

The Horn of Africa displays a remarkable range of poor governance along the spectrum of much too much government to practically none at all. Throughout the region, crises of state legitimacy serve to complicate relations between rulers and ruled. The people are no strangers to conflict. Bad treatment of citizens can quickly fuel rebellion. This equally quickly invites the unwelcome attention of hostile neighbours. Can these long standing cycles of malicious intervention be broken? Or managed? Is there any unifying logic as to why representative government has proved so elusive in the Horn? How can external actors engage usefully with governments whose representative qualities or working methods fall far short of democratic norms? Can development goals be achieved despite poor governance? And if so, what are the limits?

Organization of the Series

The series is a collaboration between Chatham House, the Royal African Society, the Rift Valley Institute and the Centre for African Studies at the University of London, pooling the experience of the four organisations. It is soliciting a wide range of views, seeking to involve policy makers and a range of area specialists. It challenges received wisdom and takes a long term view. It seeks out new angles and new voices, using unexpected sources, particularly from within the region. The views and analysis of leading figures (officials, journalists, academics) from the countries of the Horn, especially their take on each other, will be an important component of the series. It includes visiting speakers on key topical issues.

The format of the meetings varies according to subject matter, sensitivity and available speakers. Some are private meetings held under the Chatham House Rule, others are public meetings. Mini-conferences are held on some themes. Participation in the meetings will also vary. The series will include a core group taking part in all the meetings, sharing analysis and formulating conclusions. Key players in Whitehall will be invited to be part of this core group. At the conclusion of the series, the resulting analysis and policy relevant conclusions will issue as a joint Chatham House/RAS publication.