• Research
  • Africa
  • Americas
  • Asia
  • Energy, Environment and Development
  • Europe
  • International Economics
  • International Law
  • International Security
  • Middle East
    • About the programme
    • Current projects
      • Transatlantic Relations in a Changing Mediterranean Context
      • The Regional Dimension of the Palestinian Refugee Issue
        • The Minster Lovell Process
        • Stage 1
        • Stage 2
        • Stage 3
      • The Kurdish Policy Imperative
      • Kurdish Politics and Syria
      • Understanding Iran and the Iranian Issue
    • Research events
    • Press releases
    • Staff
    • Audio and transcripts
    • The World Today articles
    • International Affairs articles
    • Reports and Papers
    • Books
  • Russia and Eurasia
  • Global Trends - Food Supply Project

The Minster Lovell Process: Stage Three

The Regional Dimension of the Palestinian Refugee Issue

About the Minster Lovell Process >>

Project Stage Three: January 2006 - December 2008

This three year project builds upon work already undertaken by the Middle East Programme in facilitating dialogue between Arab and international stakeholders on the Palestinian refugee issue during the previous two phases of the project.

As a contribution to facilitating progress toward Middle East peace, the project focuses on the regional dimension of the Palestinian refugee issue, to raise awareness of the potential pitfalls of neglecting this dimension and engage the relevant stakeholders in dialogue leading to new and creative ways of thinking about options.

The target groups are Arab host country nationals (from Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and West Bank/Gaza), Palestinian refugees, Israelis and members of the international donor community.

The project activities involve representatives from all these groups, including officials, in various and overlapping combinations, in a series of scenario-building exercises, leading to a stocktaking workshop.

Following this and a series of consultations across the region, a major simulation exercise will be organized, with country teams participating, to test out the possibilities for a regional approach to conflict resolution inclusive of the refugee issue.

Project Objectives

The overall objectives of the project are to help create conditions conducive to the re-launch and sustenance of the peace process and to create a solid foundation for a just and lasting peace in the Middle East.

Specifically, with a view to clarifying issues that will need to be settled in final status negotiations, this project will focus on the regional dimension of the refugee issue, taking into account the likely nature of a future Palestinian state and the future territorial state of the Middle East.

The project proceeds from the premise that inattention to the refugee issue, and in particular its regional dimension, in the initial stages of the re-launched peace process, could threaten the success of the whole endeavour and fuel regional instability. If left on the sidelines, while negotiations focus on devising the parameters (borders and sovereign powers) of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, refugees living in neighbouring countries, or indeed those currently living in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, could harbour resentments and suspicions that could drive them to try to sabotage the process. It would also be unwise to take for granted the goodwill of Arab host countries to accommodate a definition of Palestinian statehood which cannot accommodate their own concerns about refugees. Equally, if there is an early decision to trade refugee aspirations and/or rights for Palestinian statehood, without involving all the stakeholders in the refugee issue, that decision will likely be rejected and/or opposed by those required to accommodate it.

More positively, the project proceeds from the assumption that early acknowledgement of the regional dimension of the refugee issue can open the way to creative thinking about the whole refugee question and thence a regional solution to the conflict. Hitherto the perception has prevailed, within the peace process, that refugees must either settle in place or exercise the Right of Return to an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. Little thought has been given to the possibility that an end to conflict could facilitate the free movement of people, including erstwhile refugees, within the region, such that they may hold citizenship in one state, residency in another, and conduct business in a third.

Consequently, the intention is to help raise awareness, at the grass roots and policy levels, of the regional dimension of the refugee issue; promote better understanding among the regional stakeholders (Arab and Israeli) of their respective concerns; and facilitate dialogue about innovative approaches to resolving the issue through scenario-building and simulation exercises that can generate and test out new ways of thinking about the issue.

Project Activity

Phase One: Scenario-building

• April/May 2006 Scenario-building Workshop (Minster Lovell)
  Report / Agenda
• Dec 2006 Consultative Workshop (Brussels)
  Report / Agenda
• April 2007 Scenario-building Workshop (Cyprus)
  Report / Agenda

Phase Two: Making Connections

• July 2007 Stocktaking Workshop (Minster Lovell).
  Report / Agenda
• Summer/Autumn Regional Consultations
• Nov 2007 Arab Host Country Workshop
  Report / Agenda

Phase Three: Simulation and Conclusions

• June 2008 Simulation Exercise
• Sept 2008 Concluding Workshop