• Research
  • Africa
  • Americas
  • Asia
  • Energy, Environment and Development
  • Europe
  • International Economics
  • International Law
  • International Security
  • Middle East
  • Russia and Eurasia
    • About the programme
    • Current projects
      • Russia's Future Prospects
      • The Black Sea Region after Bucharest
      • The Non-Russian Energy Sectors of the Former USSR
    • Research events
    • Press releases
    • Staff
    • Audio and transcripts
    • The World Today articles
    • International Affairs articles
    • Reports and Papers
    • Books
  • Global Trends - Food Supply Project

The Black Sea Region after Bucharest

NATO's Bucharest Summit commitment - Ukraine and Georgia 'will become members of NATO' - will change the dynamics of the Black Sea region whether NATO honours the commitment or not. In the wake of the summit, hopes were expressed that this declaration would diminish pressure on NATO, enhance the confidence of Ukraine and Georgia, temper the ambitions as well as the apprehensions of Russia and establish a measured and consensual approach to the next stage of enlargement. Already, the picture looks different.

The summit declaration has made divisions in NATO more explicit and made critics more adamant that enlargement be treated as a 'political' decision, based not upon fulfilment of criteria, but the impact on 'stability and security in Europe'. Rather than diminish short-term thinking in Ukraine and Georgia, the visibility of these divisions has only revived it, along with the fear that NATO and Russia will do deals over their heads and at their expense. These divisions are also shaping Russia's assessments and tactics. Issues long regarded as settled (e.g. Ukraine's territorial integrity) are being reopened, and the region's so-called 'frozen conflicts' now present a new set of opportunities and concerns. These developments arise in a region already troubled by rivalry and conflict and of growing strategic and economic importance for Russia, NATO and the EU.

Key areas of interest will be:

• The interests and aspirations of the region's post-Communist states;
• The region's territorial conflicts, current and potential;
• Sources of cohesion, division and vulnerability in newly independent states still limited in their autonomy and capacity;
• The evolution of Russia's objectives and the tools and techniques of its influence;
• The impact of NATO's highly institutionalised presence on the internal and external course of Ukraine and Georgia;
• The influence of NATO Membership Action Plans - or their deferral - on defence and security sectors;
• The growing security profile of the EU;
• The role and efficacy of other institutional actors: e.g., the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), GUAM Organization for Democracy and Economic Development.

Further Information

For more information about this project contact:

Alex Nice, Programme Administrator
Tel: +44 (0)20 7314 3627

More information about Chatham House work on the future of NATO >>