Russia's Future Prospects

The change of leadership in Russia has generated enigmas as well as expectations. In the West, President Medvedev is widely seen as a more accommodating and 'liberal' figure than Putin, but also a far weaker one. Earlier examples of power sharing in Russia have not been auspicious, and there are no examples of a new president sharing power with his predecessor. The proverbial 'question of power' has not been resolved by the establishment of the Medvedev-Putin diarchy, and it might not be for some time. How will this unusual arrangement influence the legitimacy and effectiveness of institutions, the legal environment and the economy, not to say the foreign policy of the Russian state?

The Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House is well placed to address these issues because of its proven ability to see the world through Russian eyes as well as the West's. Russia's preoccupations will not necessarily be the same as ours. Many inside its policy-making community believe that the opaque, personalised character of the Putin system will stay in place over the near-to-mid term and that core values and national interests might endure for an even longer period of time. Property, power and the coercive instruments of the state are closely connected in Russia. There is a widespread perception that institutions do not restrain powerful individuals but serve them, as does the law itself. The country benefits from neither a strong civil society, nor a civic state. Nevertheless, the current system has legitimacy in Russia, and it is associated with stability, economic success and international respect.

For how long will this be the case? Will these arrangements be able to generate solutions to problems already on the horizon: the challenges of creating an 'innovation economy', energy supply deficits, chronically dysfunctional bureaucracy and public services, inadequate infrastructure, the arrest (but not reversal) of negative trends in demography, education and health, internecine conflict on the ethnically non-Russian fringes of the Federation, the increasingly independent course of neighbours and the rise of China? How will the system respond if it is put under stress?

This project will examine sources of continuity and drivers of change - over Medvedev's first term and beyond - as well as the ability of the current system to evolve without strain and turbulence. It will consider how these continuities and pressures bear upon:

The institutions and processes of political, economic and foreign policy making under the Medvedev-Putin diarchy;
Prospects for economic modernisation and diversification;
The evolution of Russia's business culture; the relationship between big business, the state and the global economy;
Prospects for reforming the bureaucracy;
Prospects for the rule of law;
Relations between the federal centre and the regions;
Prospects for the emergence of political opposition;
The relationship between internal and external policy, including the role of geo-economics (the use of economic resources for political gain);
The means of influence and engagement with neighbours, the West and international institutions.

Further Information

For more information about this project contact:

Alex Nice, Programme Administrator
Tel: +44 (0)20 7314 3627

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