The Future of NATO

The future of NATO and the debate over its structure and organization remain hotly contested. There is a growing sense that structural readjustments are required to adapt to an increasingly fluid and dynamic international system. Questions surround issues of future expansion, perhaps into the south Caucasus, along with uncertainty regarding ongoing military operations, and debate regarding an appropriate stance towards Russia.

As NATO develops its new Strategic Concept and debate continues regarding Britain's role in the world and its relationships with international organisations and its American and European allies, the programme's research will continue to assess the transatlantic security relationship.

Resources

Operationalizing the Comprehensive Approach
Julian Lindley-French, Paul Cornish, Andrew Rathmell, Programme Paper, March 2010

NATO's New Strategic Policy: Going Nuclear
Paul Cornish, The World Today, December 2009

New NATO Strategy: Just What is it For?
Karl-Heinz Kamp, The World Today, October 2009

Assurance and US Extended Deterrence in NATO
David S Yost, International Affairs, July 2009

NATO: From Kosovo to Kabul
James Sperling and Mark Webber, International Affairs, May 2009

NATO At Sixty: Unhappy Returns
Michael Clarke, The World Today, April 2009

NATO At Sixty: Power and War
Lawrence Freedman, The World Today, April 2009

NATO At Sixty: Digital Defences
Rex Hughes, The World Today, April 2009

NATO At Sixty: On Our Terms
Dmitri Rogozin, The World Today, April 2009

Does a Multi-Tier NATO Matter? The Atlantic Alliance and the Process of Strategic Change
Timo Noetzel and Benjamin Schreer, International Affairs, March 2009

Russia, NATO and the Future of European Security
Roundtable Summary, February 2009

Two-Tier NATO: Alliance Divided
Timo Noetzel and Benjamin Schreer, The World Today, October 2008

NATO: Back to the Future?
Dr Paul Cornish, Transcript, October 2008

Events

Members event Unity of Purpose in Hybrid Conflict: Managing the Civilian/Military Disconnect and 'Operationalizing' The Comprehensive Approach
23 March 2010
Lieutenant General Sir Richard Shirreff, Commander of NATO's Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC)

Members event The Way Forward for NATO
8 December 2009
Dr Liam Fox MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Defence

Members event The Future of the Atlantic Alliance
20 July 2009
Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, Secretary-General of NATO

Members event NATO at 60: SAUCER's Perspective
1 April 2009
General Craddock, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe

Members event NATO in Afghanistan: Transatlantic Security and Canadian Defence Strategy
16 February 2009
The Hon Peter Gordon MacKay, Minister of National Defence, Canada

Forthcoming Book

In a forthcoming book, Multi-tier NATO: The Atlantic Alliance in the 21st Century, to be published by Chatham House in 2011, Dr Timo Noetzel and Tobias Bunde examine the concept of a 'two-tier NATO'. This is by now an established piece of shorthand in international strategic debate, used to indicate an 'alliance à la carte' divided into two or more factions of member states with divergent interests.

They argue that the organization has developed from a fixed 'two-tier' into a fluid 'multi-tier' alliance. On many issues the alliance is divided into several camps that are pushing in different directions. Thus, allies can be grouped into one of three tiers: a 'reformist', a 'status-quo' and a 'reversal'-oriented one.

While the evolution of such a multi-tier alliance will not inevitably result in NATO's demise, unmanaged this manifestation of camps will continuously disrupt the organization's strategic agility and flexibility. The book finds that if NATO is to maintain its vitality, it needs not only to develop new institutional mechanisms, but also to establish a consensus on its strategic posture in the changing international order and to make 'variable geometry' work.

Read:

membersonlyDoes a Multi-Tier NATO Matter? The Atlantic Alliance and the Process of Strategic Change, Timo Noetzel and Benjamin Schreer, International Affairs, March 2009

About the authors:

Timo Noetzel is a Research Group Leader at the Centre of Excellence at Konstanz University. He is also a Fellow of the Stiftung Neue Verantwortung, Berlin and Senior Policy Advisor to the Chairman of the Munich Security Conference. Previously, he was a Transatlantic Post-doctoral Fellow (TAPIR) at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, and at Chatham House. In autumn 2007 he was a political advisor to the ISAF Regional Commander North. Between 2003 and 2006 he worked as a parliamentary aide in the German Bundestag.

Tobias Bunde is a doctoral candidate at the Centre of Excellence at the University of Konstanz and Assistant to the Senior Policy Advisor to the Chairman of the Munich Security Conference.


Further Information

For more information please contact the International Security Programme.

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