http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/rss/11 This feed contains all new content on the Chatham House website related to International Economics. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/759/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/759/ The Forum for China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), established to coordinate relations between the two entities, is due to hold its next meeting later this year. This paper assesses what the outcomes from that meeting will be on this evolving, dynamic, and complex relationship. China's involvement in African countries goes back many years. Relationships from mid 1950s to late 1970s based more on emotional intimacy than that of 1980s and the period after the cold war. To some extent, the current relationship builds more on pragmatic economic considerations. China is already Africa's third largest trading partner. China is a complex actor, and Africa a complex continent. China, while predominantly state led in its behaviour, differs depending on which country it works in Africa, how it works, and what actors are involved, be they state, or non state, companies. Some of this involvement has been positive, with major investment, under very flexible terms, going to aid projects. Some has been highly problematic, causing China reputational damage. In the coming years, China will almost certainly increase its interests in Africa. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 15:31:29 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/643/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/643/ Iran's elections were a monumental miscalculation and now the Islamic Republic faces the most serious crisis of authority in a generation, writes Ali Ansari in this month's The World Today. Hard liners may have overreached in their quest for democratic approval. On climate change, Bernice Lee and Antony Froggatt write that the international community is not doing enough to deviate from 'business as usual' in tackling greenhouse gas emissions. Politics is trumping science as national interests come before a concerted global effort to do something about emissions. Economist Max Watson outlines a programme of action for the Euro area where policy often lags behind events. He argues that the Euro area cannot afford to wait and see what strains emerge over the medium term; it needs stronger policy coordination now. Full contents Iran Elections: Monumental Miscalculation, Ali Ansari Democracy: Dicing With Democracy, Richard Youngs Democracy: The Quiet Democrat, Nicolas Bouchet Engaging Iran - European Lessons for America: Tempting Tehran, Riccardo Alcaro Burma: All Change or No Change?, Richard Horsey Burma: Trust the People, Maung Zarni Climate Change Politics: Dangerous Game of Dare, Bernice Lee and Antony Froggatt Russia: Strategic Loneliness, Vadim Kononenko Central Asia: Power Plays, Graeme P Hern and Katva Palazzolo Mexico - Swine Flu: Victor or Victim?, Rodrigo Delgado Aguilera The Euro and the Global Financial Crisis: Surviving Strain, Max Watson Thu, 25 Jun 2009 15:49:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/641/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/641/ There is an urgent need for progress at the G8 on a number of key items that were not adequately addressed at the London G20 Summit, says this new briefing paper. Issues such as toxic assets, reform of economic governance and strong legal measures to counter protectionism were not resolved. The G8 agenda is much broader and includes a wider variety of issues - such as development, security, Africa or climate change - but there is a real need to continue to push for progress on the economic front, particularly since it seems that many G20 members have gone off and 'done their own thing' since April. Now that IMF resources have been increased, the priority should be reform of IMF governance. Discussing the EU representation within the IMF is politically difficult, but it cannot be avoided for much longer. Europe should show leadership and be the 'first mover', rather than be eventually forced to confront the question of IMF governance. It would be relatively easier for the Italians to raise the issue, given that Italy does not have a seat on the IMF's board. The Italian presidency should promote the idea of a single EU constituency. But most of all, it should seize the opportunity to link major economic discussions between the G8 leaders and key partners among developing countries, indicating that action is needed in the short term and ensuring clarity for the G20 agenda for Pittsburgh in September 2009. What is at stake is Europe's relevance at the international level. This is especially critical in view of the increasingly intense US-China dialogue. Europe's 'big four' (UK, Germany, France, Italy) therefore have a responsibility as well as the interest to bring up such a dialogue and move it forward. Notes to Editors From London to L'Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8 Chatham House and CIGI Briefing Paper, Paola Subacchi and Eric Helleiner, June 2009 Event: The G20-G8 Continuum: Global Governance in a World of Crisis Monday 6 July 2009, held in Rome. Chatham House and CIGI are jointly launching a blog to track the G8. Read >>Read more on Crisis and Reform of the International Financial Architecture >> The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) is an independent, nonpartisan think-tank that addresses international governance challenges. Contact Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager +44 (0)20 7957 5739 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 10:34:44 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1229/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1229/ 23:00, 5th July 2009 - This roundtable event will have panels on: From L'Aquila to Pittsburgh and Muskoka: Bridging the G8 and the G20 Post London Summit: Role and Expectations for the L'Aquila Summit Measuring G8 Compliance The Future of Global Economic Governance The event is held with The Centre for International Governance Innovation, G8 Research Group and Istituto Affari Internationale. For more information please contact Ruth Davis. PLEASE NOTE: There will be an opportunity for the press to interview our experts at 4pm - for details and to register please contact Anna Gaone, IAI (+39 06 3224360, a.gaone@iai.it). Wed, 24 Jun 2009 16:16:57 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/757/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/757/ From many perspectives, the London Summit of the G20 leaders at the beginning of April 2009 was a success - and a hard act to follow. The discussion was framed around crisis resolution and the strengthening of the international financial architecture. Beyond any concrete achievement, the success of the London Summit is that it morphed into an ongoing process with a rolling agenda, rather than remaining a one-off event. Undoubtedly the Italian Presidency of the G8 has a hard task, being caught between the success of London and the decreasing relevance of the G8. But there is also scope for building a meaningful bridge between London and the G8 meeting in L'Aquila in July 2009, and continuing and strengthening the economic governance reform process. There is an urgent need to continue to push for progress on a number of key items that were not adequately addressed at the London Summit and where progress can be made in L'Aquila - fostering clarity for the G20 agenda for the next meeting in Pittsburgh in September 2009. With regard, in particular, to the reform of the International Monetary Fund, the Italian Presidency should use its G8 chair to initiate a dialogue on reform of the European representation, taking advantage of having all the key players gathered together in L'Aquila. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 14:23:58 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1924/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1924/ On the verge of crucial mid-term elections, President Felipe Calderon's struggling government is facing the fallout from the swine flu epidemic, unabated drug violence and the country's third economic crisis in as many decades, the worst in the western hemisphere. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:08:17 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1923/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1923/ Smaller states selling to the highest bidder; not a distant Cold War memory, rather a new reality in Central Asia. And for good measure, as he shakes hands on a new deal with Russia the president of Kyrgyzstan gives his people the chance to renew his power. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:07:00 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1922/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1922/ Preparing for the first visit by United States President Barack Obama, Moscow sees the global recession not only in economic terms, but also as a sign that the political and ideological predominance of the west is withering. Despite itself being severely affected by the meltdown, Russian leaders sense the right moment to launch ambitious new policy proposals on pan-European security and energy. While the Kremlin might be right in assuming that, stricken by crisis, Europe is open to new ideas, its schemes are not a real alternative. It is also unclear, whether Russia is prepared to play by the rules it so actively promotes. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:05:17 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1921/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1921/ This year was meant to herald the end to the carbon-intensive global energy system. Instead of sending unmistakable signals to the global markets that change is imminent and inevitable, the climate negotiators gathering in Bonn last month did just the opposite. Two weeks of talks resulted in several hundred pages of negotiating texts. The already complex politics of climate negotiations is now burdened with the kind of technical and beggar-thy-neighbour haggling that has stalled many trade talks. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:04:13 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1202/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1202/ 16:00, 23rd June 2009 - In the light of growing Chinese investment overseas, how large is China's contribution across EU member states and between regions, and what role does regional policy play in attracting Chinese FDI? This roundtable meeting will feature original findings from comparative country case studies carried out by pan-European research teams at Chatham House and CASCC as part of a major collaborative project. With the research results presented here publicly for the first time ahead of the publication of a major report on Chinese FDI in Europe, the meeting will provide a unique opportunity for policy-makers and experts to assess the policy implications and engage in an important discussion with leading researchers in the field. Attendance at this event is by invitation only. For more information please contact Amalia Khachatryan. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:48:58 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1201/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1201/ 14:00, 15th June 2009 - The recent financial turmoil and the following global economic crisis have led to a serious re-think of the existing financial and economic world. Financial regulation and current architecture are being revised and are undergoing crucial changes. The speaker will discuss how the European Union, currently in the midst of talks about micro- and macro- prudency, is dealing with these issues. THIS EVENT IS NOW CLOSED AND REGISTRATION HAS NOW CLOSED Fri, 05 Jun 2009 15:19:24 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1200/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1200/ 07:00, 16th June 2009 - At this special Under 35s Forum breakfast meeting, Gillian Tett, will give her analysis of the current financial crisis and its impact on younger generations. She will discuss the effect on students, young people in the workforce, and issues surrounding generational debt. Registration and coffee will be available from 7.30. For more information please contact Members Events. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 18:39:51 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1197/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1197/ 13:00, 10th June 2009 - Russia, along with the rest of the world, has been hit hard by the global financial crisis. Falling oil and commodity prices have exposed structural weaknesses in the Russian economy, and there have been sharp increases in unemployment, particularly in mono-industrial towns. Professor Gontmakher, one of Russia's leading economic and political commentators, will examine the implications of the crisis for the political establishment and the likely social repercussions of higher unemployment, a sharp fall in budgetary receipts, and a squeeze on public spending. Professor Evgeny Gontmakher is a Management Board Member of the Institute of Contemporary Development, a Moscow think-tank launched in March 2008 that is chaired by President Medvedev. He is also Head of the Social Policy Center, Institute of Economics, at the Russian Academy of Sciences. He has served in various positions including Deputy Minister for Social Protection (1993-1994), Head of the Social Development Department of the Cabinet Apparatus (1998-2003), and Vice President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (2003-2004). Attendance at this event is strictly by invitation only. For more information please contact Alex Nice. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:47:37 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/749/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/749/ Although ODI from emerging economies is gaining ground, it remains very much a developed-country phenomenon. China's direct outbound investment flows accounted for only 1.1 per cent of the world total in 2007 and in terms of stocks, China still lags behind many industrial and emerging economies. For fiscal reasons, most Chinese ODI is officially reported to flow to Hong Kong and tax havens. Europe and the rest of the world have only a modest share. Market-seeking considerations rank first and strategic-asset-seeking motivations second in Chinese ODI. State intervention in Chinese ODI is generally exaggerated. The domination of state-owned enterprises in Chinese ODI reflects the fact that government policies generally favour the public sector within the Chinese economy. Chinese investment in Europe is growing but remains relatively insignificant. It is biased towards service activities; in manufacturing it is heavily concentrated in ICT and the automobile sector. Through mergers and acquisitions, Chinese investors seek access to brands and distribution networks or to engineering know-how and customer networks. Greenfield investments aim to access the European market and help to customize products for local needs. Overall, Chinese firms' performances in Europe tend to be disappointing, particularly in terms of profitability. The current economic crisis may provide new investment opportunities but it is also a major challenge for Chinese firms which invested in ailing European firms. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:27:14 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/748/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/748/ Fast rising government deficits and debt across the major economies are leading to the possibility that the average public sector debt/GDP ratio for the OECD could be as high as 100% in a few years time. The US may well be at 75% by the end of 2009 and if the government's deficit remains in the 5-15% of GDP range over the next three to four years, then its debt/GDP ratio will quickly reach 100%. Similarly for leading Euro area economies France and Germany, they could end 2009 with an equally high debt ratio of about 70-75%. With continuing deficits of 3-5% of GDP over the next five years, they too could reach 100%. Japan already has a debt/GDP ratio of 170% (100% for net debt) and yet it will run a large deficit in 2009 and for the foreseeable future. Yet the country under imminent threat of a debt downgrade, losing its AAA status, is the UK, in spite of it enjoying a previously lower debt ratio, of around 50%. This downgrade threat makes little sense - except that the UK has somehow allowed itself to fall into the position of OECD punch bag. This briefing note argues that the UK should have more actively opposed previous examples of the UK economy being pilloried and placed at the bottom of the league tables for the OECD member states performance - the repercussions of allowing the UK economy to become the 'whipping boy' could be more costly to the UK than expected. The UK needs to be more pro-active to avoid this trap. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:55:24 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/606/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/606/ In this month's issue, Dr David Heymann, Head of Chatham House's new Centre on Global Health Security, and formerly Assistant Director-General at the World Health Organization, traces the means of managing the risks of influenza and outlines today's challenges for practitioners to identify emerging infections such as swine flu. Prem Shankar Jha, columnist and former editor, The Hindustan Times, argues that the Obama administration must understand that there will be no peace settlement in Afghanistan if India is left out of the process. And Kerry Brown, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House, writes on how China is rising again but faces a major task in communicating what it calls its 'benign objectives and intentions' to the rest of the world. Full list of contents: Afghanistan and Pakistan: Obama's Quagmire, Prem Shankar Jha Afghanistan and Pakistan: Taliban Toxin, Wolfgang Danspeckgruber and William Maley Health: Preparing for Pandemics, David L Heymann Health - China and Russia: Life Support, Christopher Davis Group of Eight - Aid in Africa: Party Over, Tom Cargill Group of Eight: Thinking, Not Talking, Alex Vines China: Rising Again, Kerry Brown Coal and Climate Change: Electrifying Issue, Michael Hogan Coal and Climate Change: Between a Rock and a Hard Place, Jon Gibbins Europe: Jobs for the Boys, Richard Whitman Thu, 21 May 2009 15:51:04 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/746/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/746/ During the economic boom, Kazakhstan's banks borrowed heavily on international markets to finance massive investments in construction and real estate. The international credit crisis has left the country's banks extremely exposed, in turn putting a large section of the economy under threat. The crisis has been compounded by the machinations of certain political elite factions, which are alleged to have taken advantage of the crisis in order to advance private interests. In particular, the state has moved quickly to nationalize the largest bank, Bank Turan Alem (BTA), after it failed to raise its reserves to levels demanded by the government. This appears to be the latest attempt to strengthen the position of the political grouping centred around Timur Kulibaev, which controls Kazakhstan's second and third largest banks. The government takeover of BTA triggered an early debt repayment clause which may lead to bankruptcy for the bank. This could lower Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating, bring down the financial sector, and much of the country's economy with it. Analysts believe that the crisis currently gripping Kazakhstan's banking sector is serving as an important test case scenario insofar as BTA's default could portend other corporate and bank defaults in the former Soviet Union over the next year. Wed, 20 May 2009 10:09:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1913/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1913/ If the United States, China and the European Union do not commit to a programme in which their overall carbon dioxide emissions fall rapidly soon after 2020, continue falling for the rest of the century and then stay low forever, we are probably not going to avoid dangerous climate change. But China in particular can probably only make that commitment if it is able to keep on using coal for as long as necessary, while at the same time making the required big cuts in carbon dioxide emissions. The only way to do this is carbon capture and storage: geosequestration. Tue, 19 May 2009 14:11:42 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/744/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/744/ Latin America and the Caribbean are currently seeing severe collateral damage to their economies owing to the impact of the global downturn. Although this comes after the longest period of sustained growth since the 1970s, one which has left previously crisis-prone countries with stronger economic credentials than before, forecasts by the major international institutions (IMF, World Bank, ECLAC) are likely underestimating the scale of the local crisis in 2009. The region has primarily suffered as a result of the slump in demand in the industrialized economies, and the subsequent weakening in trade and commodity prices. This has been compounded by the losses in capital and income flows and the tightening of international credit. Regional currencies also witnessed severe devaluations last year although many have recovered some of the lost ground. The impact of the crisis will be particularly severe for the most vulnerable sectors of the population, many of which might be pushed deeper into poverty or unemployment, reversing the gains made during the growth period. However, the macroeconomic lessons gained as a result of previous crises have secured unprecedented fiscal discipline and monetary credibility, leading to the accumulation of foreign reserves and a reduction in the debt burden. This, in turn, has been reflected in upgrading by credit rating agencies and lower country risk premia, which have increased only slightly over the last year, comparing favourably with previous bouts of instability. These factors should help the region to cope with global turbulence and local recession, making it likely to emerge ready for a robust recovery once growth picks up in the industrialized economies. Nevertheless, while medium term prospects appear bright, fundamental concerns remain regarding the region's long-run economic performance, specifically the need for more balanced growth and the alleviation of poverty and social inequalities. Mon, 18 May 2009 14:47:42 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1169/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1169/ 16:30, 3rd June 2009 - With regret, Niall Ferguson is no longer able to give the Dillon Lecture on Wednesday 3 June. We hope to reschedule the meeting for September. Niall Ferguson sends his sincere regrets and apologies. For more information please contact Members Events Thu, 14 May 2009 14:19:02 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1168/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1168/ 15:00, 2nd June 2009 - The speaker will discuss the current global crisis from the perspective of its experience in the 1990s - the collapse of Japan's bubble economy and the subsequent 'Lost Decade', involving multiple bank failures and protracted recession. He will consider similarities between Japan's experience and today's global crisis, how Japan was able to restore economic growth, and what lessons can be learned. This meeting will be held under the Chatham House Rule REGISTRATION IS NOW CLOSED. THIS EVENT IS FULLY BOOKED. Thu, 14 May 2009 14:09:37 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1147/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1147/ 12:30, 3rd June 2009 - The global economic crisis is having an obvious and significant impact on world consumption and as a result, challenging the world's status quo. How is China working to maintain economic and social stability? How will China and the West re-invent themselves to survive the recession and what are the implications for the future? Can the Chinese government's RMB 4 trillion stimulus package work and how much of it is 'real' money? How is it being spent and what opportunities will it bring? The Asia Programme at Chatham House, in conjunction with Schmittzehe & Partners China Advisory and Chopsticks Club, are organizing this seminar on China's stimulus package. The event will take the form of a panel discussion followed by interactive debate and networking opportunities. A summary research white paper on the stimulus package will be available with a discount on the full published report for all attendees. This event is specifically aimed at the business community. As such, senior executives of organizations with significant operations and interests in China would benefit greatly from taking part. This event is the first in a series of three events. The following seminars will take place on Monday 21 September 2009 - China Moves up the Value Chain at Home and Overseas: How Will it Achieve This and Will it Work?, and Thursday 12 November 2009 - China: The Shift from Export to Domestic Consumption. There is a package discount if tickets for all three events are bought in one booking. Ticket price: £45.00 (£35.00 for Chatham House and Chopsticks Club members). Bookings can be made via the Chopsticks Club website >> For more information please contact the Asia Programme. Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:34:11 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2386/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2386/ Germany's role in Operation Allied Force has been described as a watershed in its foreign policy. It remains perhaps the pinnacle of Germany's security and defence policy transition after the Cold War. Germany's participation in Operation Allied Force was the first aggressive use of force by the Bundeswehr since the Second World War and, remarkably, was undertaken without a United Nations Security Council mandate. The deployment of German forces in 1999 suggested that German reluctance to burden-share in crisis management alongside NATO allies had been overcome. Yet Germany remains a cautious actor when it comes to the deployment of offensive military force. In this regard, Germany has maintained a considerable degree of continuity in its foreign and security policy after unification, a theme which this article will outline. Wed, 29 Apr 2009 15:55:08 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/580/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/580/ Climate of Change? Ahead of the Copenhagen summit in December, this month's The World Today looks at how China, Russia and Brazil are preparing for a post-Kyoto climate change agreement. Linda Jakobson, Senior Researcher, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, writes on the delicate balancing act the Chinese government are pursuing: while some Chinese leaders are adamant that combating climate change must not deter economic development, they are also keen to show they are willing to shoulder international responsibilities in line with the status of a rising power. However, the view that China is a victim of climate change, rather than a country to be held responsible for it, is shared across the party. Looking ahead to Iran's presidential elections, Ali Ansari, Associate Fellow, writes that the faltering economy will be a key issue, but with political comebacks beckoning and harsh criticisms of Ahmadinejad by potential candidates rife, one thing stands out: everyone is arguing about the need for change. And, Tony Elumelu, Chief Executive, United Bank for Africa, writes on how in a world of largely negative economic growth, African stocks and shares are showing strong results. But Africa needs to get the message across that it is a continent of growing economies, with institutions and entrepreneurs willing to play important roles in providing solutions to the economic crisis. Full list of contents: Climate Change: China's Changing Climate, Linda Jakobson Russia and Climate Change: Costs or Benefits?, Anna Korppoo Brazil and Climate Change: Global Positioning, Paulo Wrobel Moldova: Question of Power, James Sherr Global Economc Crisis: Crunching Eastern Europe, Sean Hanley European Elections: Big Yawn, or Wake-Up Call?, Julie Smith Europe's Eastern Partnership: Between Europe and Russia, Georgy Bovt Council of Europe: Conscience of a Continent, Martyn Bond The Global Economic Crisis and Africa, Tony Elumelu Iranian Presidential Elections: Ghost at the Election Banquet, Ali Ansari Lebanon Elections: Into the Shadows, Hussain Abdul-Hussain Thu, 23 Apr 2009 12:23:36 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/729/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/729/ The collapse of world trade is threatening to create a negative feedback loop to the global economy. Some countries have seen their trade fall by 30-50% in the year to February 2009, a bigger fall than between 1929 and 1930. Annual figures for world trade in 2008 show a big fall in the fourth quarter - a trend that has been accelerating. The world's trade ministers have failed to get the Doha Development Agenda back on track, despite direct instructions from the G20 leaders to do so quickly after the November summit in Washington, DC. This failure sends a very powerful negative signal about the G20's lack of policy coordination on even bigger issues. There is a two-way interaction between trade and the macro-economy at a national and global level. The current crisis is threatening countries that rely on export-led growth, a strategy that has led billions out of poverty. It is imperative for there to be recognition that the current shrinkage in global trade is a macro-economic problem requiring macro-economic solutions, and that the necessary actions must be coordinated. Tue, 31 Mar 2009 09:47:16 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/727/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/727/ Download executive summary Attempting to resolve the international financial and economic crisis has become one of the first major tests of the transatlantic relationship since the inauguration of President Obama in January 2009. Preparations for the London Summit of G20 leaders on 2 April 2009 have revealed some important differences between the US and European approach and among EU members themselves. To explore these differences and generate ideas on how best to overcome them in the midst of the financial and economic storm, Chatham House and The Atlantic Council of the United States brought together over 80 business leaders, financial experts and academics from Washington, New York, Brussels, Geneva, London, Paris and Rome in two one-day workshops. A number of these experts were commissioned to write brief policy papers which were presented and discussed at the two workshops, held within the same week in March 2009, in Washington, DC and London. These papers form the body of the report. More information on the project - The Crisis and Reform of the International Financial Architecture >> Fri, 27 Mar 2009 10:42:35 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/546/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/546/ Prime Minister Gordon Brown should offer to give up Britain's single seat on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the London summit as part of a fundamental consolidation of European representation on the Fund. By making this radical offer, Britain would demonstrate strong leadership on the need to reform the governance of the international financial system. It would also serve as a critical signal for immediate action by the G20 leaders to kick-start the world economy and make this summit a success. This is one of the recommendations contained in a new report, New Ideas for the London Summit: Recommendations to the G20 Leaders. The report is a joint partnership between Chatham House and The Atlantic Council of the United States which seeks to build transatlantic consensus on the summit agenda. Its recommendations are drawn from 20 papers by European and American specialists. Its overall conclusion is that G20 leaders should commit to two sets of actions at the London summit - those that will have an immediate effect on stemming the global financial and economic crisis and those that will have a longer-term structural impact. Key recommendations include: Actions for immediate impact to deal with the crisis First, rather than recommending one-size-fits-all fiscal stimulus packages, G20 leaders need to agree on how they will share the burden of the stimulus. Each national plan must be cast in a credible medium-term framework as well as having an immediate impact. Second, the US and other G20 leaders need to follow the example of Japan and the EU and provide credit lines that will immediately increase IMF lending facilities to help the most vulnerable countries deal with the crisis. Third, reject all forms of protectionism by committing to a twelve-month freeze on new protectionist measures, including those that are WTO-legal. Actions for medium and long-term impact Fourth, strengthen the international financial and regulatory architecture by agreeing to improve supervision and rules for all financial institutions and instruments, including credit derivatives and other structured investment vehicles. This regulation must be appropriate and correctly targeted. Fifth, a major increase in the IMF's financing capacity is necessary, and must be accompanied by reform of the IMF's governance to increase the voting weight and representation of emerging economies. Sixth, in order to address long-term economic imbalances, set up a 'caucus on currency misalignments' within the G20 that would include China, Japan, the euro-zone and the US, with two rotating seats for G20 countries with the largest accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. NOTES TO EDITORS Read New Ideas for the London Summit: Recommendations to the G20 Leaders >> Read Executive Summary >> EVENT Wednesday 1 April 2009 09:30 to 11:00 The London Summit: Multiple Perspectives on the G20 Dr Youssef Boutros-Ghali, Minister of Finance, Egypt; Chairman, International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) Lord Malloch-Brown, Prime Minister's Special Envoy for the G20 London Summit Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia Dr Paola Subacchi, Research Director, International Economics, Chatham House Chair: Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House For media enquiries, please contact Nicola Norton: +44 (0)20 7957 5739 +44 (0)79 1775 7528 ENDS Thu, 26 Mar 2009 17:21:31 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1116/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1116/ 08:00, 3rd April 2009 - The Prime Minister will discuss the global economic crisis and its effects on Turkey and will outline measures taken by the government to overcome the present crisis. HE Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been Prime Minister of Turkey since March 2003. The Prime Minister spoke in Turkish. The audio translation is available below. Thu, 26 Mar 2009 10:45:42 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1105/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1105/ 08:30, 1st April 2009 - With economies around the world at a critical moment, expectations for the London Summit on 2 April are running high. However, there is a limit to what the G20 can realistically achieve. A panel of experts will ask what the leaders' key priorities should be - boosting demand, halting protectionism, reforming the IMF or agreeing new rules for international financial regulation? The event will mark the launch of the Chatham House-Atlantic Council report: New Ideas for the London Summit: Recommendations to the G20 Leaders. For more information please contact Members Events. Mon, 23 Mar 2009 10:00:34 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/719/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/719/ This is a summary of a Russia and Eurasia Programme roundtable event with Professor Vladislav Inozemtsev, Director of the Centre for Post-Industrial Studies, Moscow, held on 10 March 2009. Mon, 16 Mar 2009 12:25:45 +0000