http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/rss/13 This feed contains all new content on the Chatham House website related to International Security. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2406/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2406/ Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:12:38 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2405/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2405/ The two books under review, The Tradition of Non-use of Nuclear Weapons, by T V Paul, and Deterrence: From Cold War to Long War. Lessons from Six Decades of RAND Research, by Austin Long, highlight the continued interest in the theory and practice of nuclear deterrence. Long traces the RAND Corporation's research on the subject, exploring the role that nuclear deterrence has played as a strategy of the Cold War. The author goes on to argue for the relevance of nuclear deterrence to the future strategic environment, considering threats from peer-competitors to non-state actors. By contrast Paul considers the rise and persistence of a tradition, or informal social norm, of non-use which has encouraged self-deterrence. Taken together, these books encourage further consideration of the relationship between nuclear deterrence and the tradition of non-use. Indeed, it is difficult to see how the two practices can successfully coexist if non-nuclear states have, as Paul suggests, already begun to exploit the existence of a tradition of non-use. Such deterrence failures, real or perceived, have profound implications for relationships between nuclear and non-nuclear states. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:11:42 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2404/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2404/ China's 30 years of reform are often presented as a seamless progression towards greater liberalization and opening up. This review article of Yasheng Huang's Capitalism with Chinese characteristics shows how the author makes a compelling argument about how radically China's economic reforms changed from before and after the Tiananmen Square incident in June 1989. The 1980s saw the pro-rural, largely equitable, and generally liberal economic policies, with a private sector able to find sources of capital from family or relationship networks, and the creation of a very flexible and largely unplanned town and village enterprise system across China. From the 1990s, however, China has been dominated by pro-urban, less equitable and much more heavily state-led economic policies. Shanghai exemplifies this, with a highly circumscribed non-state sector, stagnation of per capita GDP growth in favour of company growth, and the Pudong development area largely based on land grab, and disrespect for the private property rights of the former tenant farmers based there. China grapples with the legacy of this policy change in 1989 to this day, with an increasingly disenfranchised and impoverished rural population, and cities that are both unsustainable, but irrevocable. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:08:23 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2403/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2403/ Japan and China's ability to manage their bilateral relationship is crucial for the stability of the East Asian region. It also has a global impact on the security and economic development of other regions. For just as China's rise has inevitably involved an expansion of its global reach, so Japan's responses to the challenges posed by China have increasingly taken a global form, seeking to incorporate new partners and frameworks outside East Asia. Japan's preferred response to China's regional and global rise in the post-Cold War period has remained one of default engagement. Japan is intent on promoting China's external engagement with the East Asia region and its internal domestic reform, through upgrading extant bilateral and Japan-China-US trilateral frameworks for dialogue and cooperation, and by emphasizing the importance of economic power to influence China. Japan is deliberately seeking to proliferate regional frameworks for cooperation in East Asia in order to dilute, constrain and ultimately engage China's rising power. However, Japan's engagement strategy also contains the potential to tilt towards default containment. Japan's domestic political basis for engagement is becoming increasingly precarious as China's rise stimulates Japanese revisionism and nationalism. Japan also appears increasingly to be looking to contain China on a global scale by forging new strategic links in Russia and Central Asia, with a 'concert of democracies' involving India, Australia and the US. Nevertheless, Japan's perceived inability to channel China's rise either through regional engagement or through global containment carries a further risk of pushing Japan to resort to the strengthening of its military power in an attempt to guarantee its essential national interests. It is in this instance that Japan and China run the danger of a military collision. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:06:02 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2402/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2402/ The literature on China's regional rise reveals divergent understandings of why China changed its regional strategy and when such a transformation occurred. There are also different understandings of the extent of China's power in the region-or more often, the extent to which US power in East Asia is already challenged by China's regional rise. Nevertheless, there is a consensus of sorts over how Chinese policy has changed with an emphasis on a combination of proactive diplomatic initiatives and ever increasing economic interactions. After providing a brief overview of the existing literature, the main part of this article considers the role of China's 'soft power' in reconfiguring power relationships in East Asia. It suggests that while the US might have lost some of its ideational appeal, it is through working within existing frameworks and 'norms' (rather than establishing new revisionist alternatives) that China has had most success in assuaging fears of the consequences of its rise. However, the way in which others conceive of China's rise and Chinese power (and subsequently act) does provide a form of 'non-hard' power that might help China's leaders attain their regional objectives particularly in light of the continuing global economic crisis. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:01:51 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2401/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2401/ As its economic power, military strength and cultural influence expands, India draws ever closer to becoming a leading player in world politics. Yet relatively little is known about what Indians take to be the nature of international politics and, correspondingly, how their power and influence should be used. A survey of Indian political thought reveals sharp disagreements. Moralists wish for India to serve as an exemplar of principled action. Hindu nationalists want Indians to act as muscular defenders of Hindu civilization; strategists advocate cultivating state power by developing strategic capabilities; and liberals seek prosperity and peace by increasing trade and interdependence. This article argues that current trends indicate that India will increasingly prioritize its quest for prosperity and peace. But if this quest is thwarted by external threats, then calls to enhance India's military power will most probably grow louder, and be heeded more closely. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:47:43 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2399/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2399/ Historically the NATO allies have focused considerable attention on US 'extended deterrence' - that is, the extension by Washington of an umbrella of protection, sometimes called a 'nuclear guarantee'. A persisting requirement has been to provide the allies with assurance about the reliability and credibility of this protection. This article examines the definition of 'assurance' used by the US Department of Defense for most of the past decade and argues that it has drawn attention to long-standing policy challenges associated with US extended deterrence in NATO. The article considers the assurance roles of US nuclear forces in Europe, as well as elements of assurance in Washington's relations with its allies regarding extended nuclear deterrence. Whether the allies will retain the current requirements of extended deterrence and assurance in their new Strategic Concept or devise a new approach will be an issue of capital importance in the policy review launched at the Strasbourg/Kehl Summit. Contrasting approaches to these questions are visible in the United States and Germany, among other allies. The main issues to be resolved include reconciling extended deterrence with arms control priorities; managing the divisions in public and expert opinion; and avoiding certain potential consequences of a rupture with established arrangements. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:43:45 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2394/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2394/ Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:17:53 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/643/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/643/ Iran's elections were a monumental miscalculation and now the Islamic Republic faces the most serious crisis of authority in a generation, writes Ali Ansari in this month's The World Today. Hard liners may have overreached in their quest for democratic approval. On climate change, Bernice Lee and Antony Froggatt write that the international community is not doing enough to deviate from 'business as usual' in tackling greenhouse gas emissions. Politics is trumping science as national interests come before a concerted global effort to do something about emissions. Economist Max Watson outlines a programme of action for the Euro area where policy often lags behind events. He argues that the Euro area cannot afford to wait and see what strains emerge over the medium term; it needs stronger policy coordination now. Full contents Iran Elections: Monumental Miscalculation, Ali Ansari Democracy: Dicing With Democracy, Richard Youngs Democracy: The Quiet Democrat, Nicolas Bouchet Engaging Iran - European Lessons for America: Tempting Tehran, Riccardo Alcaro Burma: All Change or No Change?, Richard Horsey Burma: Trust the People, Maung Zarni Climate Change Politics: Dangerous Game of Dare, Bernice Lee and Antony Froggatt Russia: Strategic Loneliness, Vadim Kononenko Central Asia: Power Plays, Graeme P Hern and Katva Palazzolo Mexico - Swine Flu: Victor or Victim?, Rodrigo Delgado Aguilera The Euro and the Global Financial Crisis: Surviving Strain, Max Watson Thu, 25 Jun 2009 15:49:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1228/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1228/ 09:00, 8th July 2009 - In his first major speech as Secretary of State for Defence, Rt Hon Bob Ainsworth MP, will reinforce the UK's commitment to operations in Afghanistan. He will set out the nature of the comprehensive cross-government and international action that will be the platform for success. For more information please contact Members Events Tue, 23 Jun 2009 16:50:53 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1922/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1922/ Preparing for the first visit by United States President Barack Obama, Moscow sees the global recession not only in economic terms, but also as a sign that the political and ideological predominance of the west is withering. Despite itself being severely affected by the meltdown, Russian leaders sense the right moment to launch ambitious new policy proposals on pan-European security and energy. While the Kremlin might be right in assuming that, stricken by crisis, Europe is open to new ideas, its schemes are not a real alternative. It is also unclear, whether Russia is prepared to play by the rules it so actively promotes. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:05:17 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1226/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1226/ 16:30, 20th July 2009 - In his last speech before leaving office on 31 July, the Secretary-General will assess his legacy, comment on the challenges which lie ahead for the Alliance and give his views on what should be in NATO's new Strategic Concept. For more information please contact Members Events Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:35:56 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/624/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/624/ Ginny Hill, author of the Chatham House paper Yemen: Fear of Failure says: 'Al-Qaeda and its affiliates in Yemen have been responsible for the deaths of 14 tourists in the last two years. Spanish, Belgian and South Korean nationals have died in suicide attacks and gunfire on tourist groups. But the calculated execution of captive hostages would represent a new and chilling tactic, and confirm fears that al-Qaeda's capacity and ambition in Yemen are increasing. Nine foreigners were abducted at the weekend in a remote mountainous area near to the Saudi border. Since 2004, the Saada region has endured sporadic civil war between Yemeni security forces and local rebels, and media access is tightly restricted. We still don't have a reliable picture about the fate of the hostages. If any of the hostages has been executed, as several reports now suggest, if would mark a new phase in the pattern of violence towards foreigners. Local rebels in the Saada region have not taken foreign hostages before, and they deny any involvement in the kidnapping. Yemeni tribes have a long history of kidnapping foreigners to extract concessions from the central government - but these 'bargaining chips' are almost always released unharmed. Al-Qaeda and its affiliates in Yemen have been responsible for the deaths of 14 tourists in the last two years. Spanish, Belgian and South Korean nationals have died in suicide attacks and gunfire on tourist groups. But the calculated execution of captive hostages would represent a new and chilling tactic, and confirm fears that al-Qaeda's capacity and ambition in Yemen are increasing.' Notes to Editors: Read Yemen: Fear of Failure >> Ginny Hill is available for comment: Ginny Hill, +44 (0)7779 790 356 ginny.uk@gmail.com Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager, +44 20 7957 5739 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 10:09:56 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1207/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1207/ 23:00, 9th June 2009 - This is the inaugural workshop of a newly established European Security and Defence Forum (ESDF) and forms a crucial part of a major new initiative launched by the International Security Programme. The workshop will examine the ways in which security and defence are articulated and understood in academic and theoretical debates, and in government. The workshop will also examine the conceptual/practical debate at the level of international security organizations. A report of the proceedings will be available. The second workshop of this forum will be held later this year, to be followed by a conference early in 2010. For more information please contact the European Security and Defence Forum. More about the Forum >> Mon, 15 Jun 2009 10:16:25 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/606/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/606/ In this month's issue, Dr David Heymann, Head of Chatham House's new Centre on Global Health Security, and formerly Assistant Director-General at the World Health Organization, traces the means of managing the risks of influenza and outlines today's challenges for practitioners to identify emerging infections such as swine flu. Prem Shankar Jha, columnist and former editor, The Hindustan Times, argues that the Obama administration must understand that there will be no peace settlement in Afghanistan if India is left out of the process. And Kerry Brown, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House, writes on how China is rising again but faces a major task in communicating what it calls its 'benign objectives and intentions' to the rest of the world. Full list of contents: Afghanistan and Pakistan: Obama's Quagmire, Prem Shankar Jha Afghanistan and Pakistan: Taliban Toxin, Wolfgang Danspeckgruber and William Maley Health: Preparing for Pandemics, David L Heymann Health - China and Russia: Life Support, Christopher Davis Group of Eight - Aid in Africa: Party Over, Tom Cargill Group of Eight: Thinking, Not Talking, Alex Vines China: Rising Again, Kerry Brown Coal and Climate Change: Electrifying Issue, Michael Hogan Coal and Climate Change: Between a Rock and a Hard Place, Jon Gibbins Europe: Jobs for the Boys, Richard Whitman Thu, 21 May 2009 15:51:04 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1175/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1175/ 17:30, 28th May 2009 - The speaker will examine the UK's counter-terrorism policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and will assess the impact of these strategies within the UK. In particular, he will explore how Britain's international engagement is viewed by the UK's diverse Muslim communities. Formerly an activist of Hizb ut-Tahrir and Jamat-e-Islam front organizations in the UK, Ed Husain is now a strong critic of Islamic extremism. There will be a reception beforehand from 18.30-19.00 Tue, 19 May 2009 10:06:04 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1174/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1174/ 17:00, 30th June 2009 - THIS MEETING IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION HAS CLOSED The speaker will look towards the future of international relations, and define his view of the new shape of world power: 'Ashdown's third law', or why the world will never be the same again and what we should do about it. The lecture is held in honour of Lord Garden, a former Director of Chatham House and a foreign affairs, defence and security expert. Following a thirty-year career in the Royal Air Force, he pursued an active career in academia and then politics. For more information please contact Members Events. Mon, 18 May 2009 16:08:01 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1173/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1173/ 17:00, 22nd June 2009 - Pakistan's transformation from a country once projected as a model of Muslim enlightenment to a state faced with a lethal Islamist challenge has dominated headlines. The speaker will argue that while the failure of governance and the damage wrought by external powers have hastened this decline, the country's problems are rooted in its foundations as a nation. From the outset there was uncertainty about the country's national identity and the state's relationship to Islam. It is this ideological confusion that has left Pakistan prey to the forces of extremism that threaten international stability today. For more information please contact Members Events. Mon, 18 May 2009 16:01:30 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1172/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1172/ 16:30, 18th June 2009 - The speaker will argue that during the Bush years the two sides of the Atlantic were united by fear and divided as to the best answer to threats posed. He will consider whether, since the election of Barack Obama, they are coming closer politically or drifting away emotionally, with more collective hope and more individual fear in America, and less collective hope and less individual fear in Europe. For more information please contact Members Events. Mon, 18 May 2009 15:54:12 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1170/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1170/ 10:00, 22nd May 2009 - The debate over Ballistic Missile Defence, primarily between Russia and the US but very much a European concern, has not evaporated with the 'resetting' of relations with Russia. Certainly European countries are divided, but there is also a debate in Russia beyond the Kremlin, with experts and even military staff split over the threat perception. This roundtable will explore the various Russian scenarios ensuing from US Missile Defence options. Attendance at this meeting is strictly by invitation only. For more information please contact Alex Nice. Mon, 18 May 2009 12:00:11 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1154/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1154/ 12:30, 20th May 2009 - Recent months have once again focused on developments on the Korean Peninsula, after an alleged satellite launch, a highly belligerent North Korean response to UN sanctions and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's apparent stroke. Since he has no named successor, this has provoked speculation about who exactly is running the country. The speakers will discuss these developments and analyze the impact of a return to the old confrontational policies between North and South following on from last year's election of a conservative president in South Korea, who quickly moved away from his predecessors' engagement policy towards the North. They will also discuss how, despite high expectations and major modifications in United States' policies towards North Korea, 2008 ended without final agreement on North Korean denuclearization. Tue, 05 May 2009 16:28:51 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1153/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1153/ 12:30, 15th May 2009 - In strategic and inclusive terms the speaker will give a view of future conflict, dominated by the concept of hybrid operations. He will explain the implications of this for the land environment in particular, showing how the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan have acted as a catalyst for 'transformation in contact' and describe how the Army could continue to evolve so that it can better contribute to defence and security in the future. The question and answer session in this meeting was off the record. Tue, 05 May 2009 16:22:43 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/587/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/587/ Ten years after the Kosovo War, this special issue of International Affairs looks at the significance of the war. The featured articles suggest that the Kosovo war had implications that went beyond the circumstances of its launch and conclusion. Over Kosovo, NATO's credibility was put on the line and its viability as a worthwhile security provider was questioned - just as it was in Bosnia and now in Afghanistan. In 'NATO: From Kosovo to Kabul', James Sperling and Mark Webber argue, while the crises (both internal and external) which NATO has faced are real, the assumption need not follow that the alliance is facing inexorable decline. Whatever the merits of the actions it has undertaken, NATO has proved robust and responsive. The alliance remains a framework of choice for its members - after initially rejecting the prospect of NATO oversight in Afghanistan, the Bush administration recognized that in doing so the high costs of operational incoherence and inefficiency far exceeded any potential gain of operational freedom. The Obama administration has staked its foreign policy reputation on addressing the Afghan imbroglio. Here, NATO is seen as central. Sperling and Webber write that despite fundamental disagreements besetting the alliance, the Afghan experience can be read as yet another instance of crisis as normality. Claims of a transatlantic gap of burden-sharing in Afghanistan are exaggerated. Based on three tables that look in detail at NATO members' contributions, the article shows that NATO European and NATO US contributions to allied operations are roughly proportionate, but the same cannot be said of intra-European burden-sharing, risk-sharing, and financial support. Like Bosnia and Kosovo before it, Afghanistan is but the latest episode in which NATO is seen to be facing its darkest hour. But NATO's fortunes rest on more than simply the outcome of a single (if vital) mission. The challenges NATO faces, especially now in Afghanistan, should be seen contextually, as part of the seemingly endless, but often exaggerated, narrative of NATO failure and decline. Read 'NATO: From Kosovo to Kabul' >> International Affairs 85/3 - Contents The Kosovo War: A Recapitulation, Mark Webber Operation Allied Force: Handmaiden of Independent Kosovo, Julie A Mertus The Influence of Operation Allied Force on the Development of Jus ad Bellum, Steven Haines NATO: From Kosovo to Kabul, James Sperling And Mark Webber 'A Milestone in the History of the EU': Kosovo and the EU's International Role, Alistair J K Shepherd Innovation and Precedent in the Kosovo War: The Impact of Operation Allied Force on US Foreign Policy, David Hastings Dunn 'Tony's War'? Blair, Kosovo and the Interventionist Impulse in British Foreign Policy, Oliver Daddow Falling into Line? Kosovo and the Course of German Foreign Policy, Alister Miskimmon From Pristina to Tskhinvali: The Legacy of Operation Allied Force in Russia's Relations with the West, Derek Averre The Kosovo War in Perspective, Andrew Cottey Book Reviews Fri, 01 May 2009 09:48:18 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2387/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2387/ This article reviews the main developments in the Kosovo crisis in the context of relations between Russia and NATO/the West. For Moscow, Operation Allied Force constituted a flagrant breach of international law, a threat to post-Cold War European security governance and a challenge to Russia's status in the international order. Official Russian interpretations, heavily influenced by domestic politics, reflect a perception among Russia's political elite that, rather than upholding liberal democratic values, NATO's intervention constituted a selective defence of the interests of the leading western powers. Such views have influenced Moscow's position on the thorny question of Kosovo's independence and Russia's more assertive foreign and security policy in the recent period, not least in the conflict over South Ossetia in August 2008. Ultimately, Operation Allied Force resulted in the Russian governing elite reassessing its views on statehood, the international order and the norms underpinning international society. Wed, 29 Apr 2009 15:57:36 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2386/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2386/ Germany's role in Operation Allied Force has been described as a watershed in its foreign policy. It remains perhaps the pinnacle of Germany's security and defence policy transition after the Cold War. Germany's participation in Operation Allied Force was the first aggressive use of force by the Bundeswehr since the Second World War and, remarkably, was undertaken without a United Nations Security Council mandate. The deployment of German forces in 1999 suggested that German reluctance to burden-share in crisis management alongside NATO allies had been overcome. Yet Germany remains a cautious actor when it comes to the deployment of offensive military force. In this regard, Germany has maintained a considerable degree of continuity in its foreign and security policy after unification, a theme which this article will outline. Wed, 29 Apr 2009 15:55:08 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2385/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2385/ Operation Allied Force had a decisive impact on Tony Blair's leadership of UK foreign policy. This article begins with Blair's famous Chicago speech of April 1999; his clearest statement of an apparently underlying moral purpose in international relations. It then contrasts the conventional wisdom that over Kosovo Blair was acting out of a sense of moral obligation with a revisionist account centring on the domestic political considerations impelling Blair into this particular foreign policy adventure. Blair drew three lessons from his involvement in Operation Allied Force: that media presentation was a crucial aspect of implementing a successful foreign policy strategy; that he had been too cautious between 1997 and 1999, partly as a result of being chained to the vagaries of public opinion; and that he could generate robust and worthy foreign and defence policies sitting with his close advisers on the sofa of his 'den' in Downing Street rather than working through traditional channels. The key argument in conclusion is that there was a Tony Blair before Iraq, one who was genuinely set on building a consensus around humanitarian intervention. Wed, 29 Apr 2009 15:53:03 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2384/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2384/ The 1990s was a period of strategic innovation in US foreign policy. Operation Allied Force in particular represented an important step in the contorted evolution of America's attitude towards the use of force in the post-Cold War period. That operation demonstrated the growing influence of humanitarian concerns and the extent to which America was willing to reconsider Cold War criteria on the prudence and utility of force in support of its foreign policy. In its decision to intervene in Kosovo, the Clinton administration also divided opinion among the military. This, in effect, reduced the premium placed on the counsels of the armed forces and made it easier for the Bush administration subsequently to ignore their advice. Furthermore, having fought the war multilaterally through NATO, Operation Allied Force made America more wary of doing so again. In other words, the intervention set a number of precedents and left a significant legacy for the way in which US foreign policy was pursued in the decade that followed. This legacy is considered in two parts: the first analyses those issues associated with the use of force debate; the second considers how the Kosovo experience affected US attitudes to coalition warfare. Wed, 29 Apr 2009 15:49:13 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2383/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2383/ The Kosovo war was a decisive catalyst in the development of the EU's international security role. The escalating crisis in Kosovo confirmed that the EU was still unable to prevent, contain or end violent conflict along its own borders. This led the EU to augment both its hard and soft power through the launch of the European Security and Defence Policy and the Stabilisation and Association Process. These initiatives endowed the EU with the potential to make a distinct contribution to international conflict management. Unsurprisingly, this continuing transformation has encountered significant obstacles relating to capabilities, political will and coordination. Concerns have also been raised about how the development of a military dimension has changed the nature of EU power. However, the EU has not abandoned the core principle upon which its international role was founded, namely the need to transcend conflict. Ten years after its failings in Kosovo, the EU is assuming increasing responsibility for conflict management and becoming a more capable international security actor. Wed, 29 Apr 2009 15:46:05 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2382/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2382/ NATO has throughout its history been the subject of prognostications of crisis and dissolution. Indeed, the alliance has been written off so many times that crisis as normality has come to typify its development. In the twenty-year history of NATO's post-Cold War development, Operation Allied Force stands midway between the existential moment that was the collapse of the Soviet bloc and the current travails being experienced in Afghanistan. A comparison of NATO's experience in the Balkans and in the Afghan theatre suggests that the view of a NATO perched permanently at the edge of collapse is problematic and misleading. This is not to defend alliance actions as such but rather to suggest that the narrative of crisis and collapse makes for poor analysis and underestimates NATO's proclivity for adaptation and endurance. Wed, 29 Apr 2009 15:43:33 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2381/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2381/ Some have argued that NATO's air campaign against Serbia in 1999 was manifestly unlawful, others that it was an entirely legitimate humanitarian intervention. A third position suggests that the intervention while unlawful, in the strictest sense, was nonetheless legitimate. Here, a customary law right to intervene was seen as emerging, permitting action to prevent a mass atrocity crime, even when UN Security Council authorization was absent. Did Operation Allied Force, then, add to the case for the emergence of this new customary norm? If Kosovo achieved anything, it was to prompt greater attention to the merits of the argument in favour of a 'responsibility to protect'. If NATO's 1999 action were repeated today in a similarly unauthorized manner it would still be unlawful, but it would perhaps be seen as a legitimate means to preventing a mass atrocity crime. Wed, 29 Apr 2009 15:39:40 +0100