http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/rss/15 This feed contains all new content on the Chatham House website related to Russia and Eurasia. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1003/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1003/ 00:00, 13th November 2008 - Global Futures: The Chatham House Annual Conference 2008 Global Futures: The Chatham House Annual Conference will focus on issues of global importance each year. Drawing on Chatham House's extensive range of contacts and its adventurous thinking on international political, economic and geopolitical issues, this annual event offers you the opportunity to hear from, and engage in debate with, leaders from governments, business and international organizations as well as expert commentators. Chatham House has traditionally held an annual members' conference. This annual event, primarily for Chatham House members and Chatham House Foundation Fellows, will take a forward look at future trends in international affairs. Taking advantage of our independent stance and unparalleled convening power, it will provide new insights and high level debate on the most crucial issues facing the world today. Is Globalization in Crisis? Global Futures: The Chatham House Annual Conference 2008 will ask whether the most recent wave of globalization - the growing interdependence of societies and economies through the opening of markets and borders - has reached a turning point, marked by the crisis in financial markets and an increase in protectionist rhetoric. The arrival of a new US administration in Washington, new questions about globalization in the EU, the continuing rise of China and India, combined with financial instability in the West, and increased competition for resources globally, make this a significant moment to review the likely future course of this third wave of globalization of the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Most of the speeches were held under the Chatham House Rule. Transcripts which are available are attached below. Previous Chatham House Annual Conferences >> Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:03:55 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1842/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1842/ A new climate is likely at the United Nations climate change conference in Poland early this month and not just because of the election of Barack Obama as President of the United States. The international financial crisis has highlighted the cost of poor policies and the scale of banking bailouts has made dealing with climate change seem less formidable. Besides, such schemes could create new jobs and give an edge to the competitive economies of tomorrow. gsb Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:18:35 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1840/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1840/ Only one African country - South Africa - was invited to the Washington summit in response to the global economic crisis. The continent fears being left out, just as it is growing economically and adjusting its position in world trade. What impact will the crisis have on Africa? Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:12:54 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1839/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1839/ Is the world ready for a new Bretton Woods agreement? As the economic crisis deepened in recent months, a rising chorus of voices began to call for the replacement of the financial architecture put in place in 1944 at a small resort village in New Hampshire. In response, twenty governments hastily gathered in Washington in mid-November hoping to try to replicate the success of the original conference. Should we be surprised that little was achieved beyond the affirmation of a gaggle of lofty principles? Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:11:02 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/995/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/995/ 17:30, 2nd December 2008 - The start of Dmitri Medvedev's presidency was greeted with hopes for liberalization at home and a thaw in relations abroad. His presidency, like Vladimir Putin's, has begun with a 'short and victorious' war in the Caucasus, and relations with the West are at their lowest poinst since the end of the Cold War. Rumours now abound that Putin may return to the Presidency well before Medvedev's first term is due to end. The speaker will examine Medvedev's approach to foreign policy and the Kremlin's strategic vision of Russia's place in the international system. Tue, 18 Nov 2008 15:07:10 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/991/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/991/ 09:30, 25th November 2008 - Since it was first conceived the Nabucco gas pipeline project has been the subject of controversy. Questions over the route, potential suppliers, and economic viability remain. Russia's increasingly forthright courtship of both supplier and consumer states along the proposed course further complicates the picture, whilst simultaneously heightening demands for diversification of transit routes. Ambassador Mihály Bayer will address these issues at a roundtable on the prospects for the Nabucco pipeline. Mihály Bayer is Hungary's Ambassador-at-large for the Nabucco gas pipeline project. He joined the Hungarian Foreign Office in 1980 and has served as Ambassador to China and Moldova, as well as Head of the Department of CIS countries, and advisor to the Political Director. This meeting is by invitation only. Tue, 18 Nov 2008 12:25:11 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/990/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/990/ 11:00, 21st November 2008 - The democratic opposition in Russia remains weak, divided and lacking in leadership. Recent events have done little to improve the situation. The current financial crisis may increase demand for liberal economic reform in Russia, but it has also made big business interests more dependent on the Kremlin and less likely to sponsor opposition forces. Dr Ryabov will discuss the future of the liberal opposition and democracy in Russia, taking into account the impact of recent events such as the war in Georgia. Dr Andrey Ryabov is Deputy Director of the Centre for Political Science Programmes at the Gorbachev Foundation, and scholar-in-residence at the Carnegie Moscow Center. He has written widely on Russian politics, including Originality Instead of Modernisation: Paradoxes of Russian Politics in the Post-Stabilization Era, published by Carnegie, and most recently co-authored Between Dictatorship and Democracy: Russian Post-Communist Political Reform. This meeting is by invitation only. Tue, 18 Nov 2008 12:21:19 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/473/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/473/ Chatham House experts offer their perspectives on the key foreign policy and economic challenges facing the new administration. The following quotes and comments from Chatham House are available for immediate use. Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House Mr Obama's first job will be to keep Americans safe and not to please the international gallery. This does not mean that Europeans should resign themselves to be disappointed. Read full comment >> Alex Vines, Research Director and Head, Africa Programme: Reining in stratospherically high expectations both from within Africa, and from within his own administration, will be a principle pre-occupation for the first years of Obama's Africa policy. Read full comment >> Dr Gareth Price, Head, Asia Programme: Barack Obama, whose formative years were spent in Indonesia, in some ways brings greater cultural awareness of the diverse region than any previous president. Read full comment >> Dr DeAnne Julius, Chairman, Chatham House: The downward lurch of the US economy during the final month of the campaign undoubtedly helped Mr Obama win the election. Can he now return the favour by arresting the economic decline? The fundamentals are against him. Read full comment >> Dr Paola Subacchi, Research Director, International Economics Cries for the end of US economic hegemony may be premature. Despite being badly hit by the credit crisis, the US may still show great resilience. Read full comment >> Robin Shepherd, Senior Research Fellow, Europe There are many unanswered questions on Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel-Palestine and Russia. Obama needs to put meat on the bone now. Read full comment >> Dr Claire Spencer, Head, Middle East Programme: The main headaches for the US administration will remain the three 'Is': Iran, Iraq and the lingering Israel-Palestine conflict. Read full comment >> James Sherr, Head, Russia and Eurasia Programme: It is important for the USA that Russia regain respect for its competence, interests and the judicious use of American power. Read full comment >> Notes to Editors Read all comments in full >> More information on the Chatham House Project, 'Rethinking the United States' International Role' >> Forthcoming event:Monday 17 November 2008 The Whitehead Lecture: Major Foreign Policy Challenges for the Next US President The 2008 Whitehead Lecture will be given by Dr Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Advisor to the President of the United States (1977-1981). Contact: Nicola Norton Media Relations Manager ++ (0) 20 7957 5739 ENDS Tue, 04 Nov 2008 17:48:08 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/675/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/675/ This is a summary of a meeting held at Chatham House on 10 October 2008. Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:04:23 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/973/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/973/ 10:30, 10th November 2008 - The recent conflict with Russia has placed Georgia's civil society in an unenviable position and weakened an already divided political opposition. Internationally, the Western support for President Saakashvili in the face of Russian aggression increases the risk that the continuing weaknesses in Georgia's political system may be overlooked. This roundtable offers an opportunity to hear from five leading members of Georgia's civil society on the current challenges to democracy and accountability in Georgia. This event has been organised jointly with Adam Smith International. This event is by invitation only. Fri, 31 Oct 2008 16:25:00 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2333/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2333/ Soaring oil prices since the early 2000s have led to a historic transformation of wealth from consuming regions to major oil exporters. In recent years many of these exporters have set up oil funds to utilize their massive and growing oil revenues. These funds are divided into two categories-stabilizing and saving. Their large investments in western markets have raised concerns that they might be driven by political and strategic interests rather than commercial ones. This article examines oil funds in the Persian Gulf, Norway and Russia. It discusses US and European proposals to regulate oil funds' investments. The article examines the International Monetary Fund's efforts to forge a consensus on a 'code of conduct' that would guide the relationship between oil funds and the recipient markets. The analysis argues against excessive regulation. Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:26:47 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2332/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2332/ After a decade of relative neglect post-Soviet Central Asia has become a foreign policy priority for the transatlantic community. Both the United States and Europe have engaged with the region in recent years in pursuit of new strategic interests, including maintaining military basing access in support of coalition operations in Afghanistan and securing the export of Central Asian oil and gas to the West. Despite this period of renewed engagement, however, the quality of democratic governance within the region remains poor, especially in comparison with other post-communist regions that successfully completed their political transitions. In fact, the United States and the European Union have often tempered promoting their Central Asian democratization agendas in order to maintain access to these strategically important fixed assets. The transatlantic struggle to balance the pursuit of strategic interests and democratic values has been rendered more difficult by Russia's recent resurgence as a regional power. Backed by the Central Asian governments, Moscow has challenged the purpose and influence of western-based international and non-governmental organizations in the region, thereby further diminishing the transatlantic community's capacity to promote sustained democratic reforms. Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:24:23 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/967/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/967/ 15:00, 27th October 2008 - The recent war in Georgia has changed the security calculus for all three states in the south Caucasus. For Armenia, a territorial conflict between two of its closest strategic partners raises difficult questions and demands delicate diplomacy. The Minister will assess the implications of the recent conflict in Georgia for security in the Caucasus as a whole, and for the other disputed territory in the region, Nagorno-Karabakh. Edward Nalbandian was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia in April 2008. He has served as Ambassador of Armenia to France, Israel and Egypt, and was also the President's Personal Representative to the International Organization of Francophone countries. THIS EVENT IS STRICTLY BY INVITATION ONLY. Mon, 27 Oct 2008 10:21:17 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1832/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1832/ An air of lassitude pervades the Iranian nuclear talks. Will things look different after the American election? What should be done to raise the chances of a good outcome? Fri, 24 Oct 2008 15:56:17 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1831/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1831/ The global economic crisis is accelerating processes of change, whereby economic - and ultimately political - power is shifting away from European and North American states which have dominated the world for most of the past two centuries. These dramatic changes will have significant impacts in many sectors, including on development and humanitarian activity. Any decline in the west's economic and strategic power means that in future there will be less financial and political capital to back international interventions based on human rights. Fri, 24 Oct 2008 15:54:19 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/957/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/957/ 17:30, 6th November 2008 - The speaker will present his groundbreaking new study of Sino-Russian relations. He will argue that the relationship reflects a new geopolitics, one that eschews formal alliances in favour of more flexible and opportunistic arrangements. The dynamic between these two emerging powers is one of strategic convenience rather than strategic partnership. It is shaped not by a shared vision of the world, but by expediency, pragmatism, and cold-eyed perceptions of national interests. This event will mark the official UK launch of the book Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing and the New Geopolitics. Tue, 21 Oct 2008 14:37:47 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/954/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/954/ 12:00, 27th October 2008 - The recent crisis has underlined the need for the European Union and NATO to strengthen its strategic thinking with regard to Russia and its neighbours. The Baltic States, as neighbours of Russia and the only post-Soviet members of NATO and the EU, have a crucial role to play in shaping policy in this area. The Minister will speak for approximately 15 minutes, allowing 45 minutes for questions and discussion. Māris Riekstiņš has served as Foreign Minister of Latvia since November 2007. Previously he served as Ambassador of the Republic of Latvia to the US (December 2004 - January 2007). Prior to his appointment as Foreign Minister, Mr Riekstiņš was Chief of Staff to then Latvian Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis (January 2007 - November 2007). This meeting will be held under the Chatham House Rule. Please note this event is strictly by invitation only. Thu, 16 Oct 2008 12:08:14 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/471/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/471/ A new paper by Chatham House says that the once-in-a-century economic meltdown means that OECD countries' simultaneous collapse in consumer and business spending will get worse and more extraordinary 'out of the box' measures may still be needed before the situation turns around. The paper, Synchronized Dive Into Recession: Focus on Damage Limitation, by Vanessa Rossi, Senior Research Fellow, International Economics Programme, also analyzes China's increasingly important role as the single largest contributor to economic growth. Summary Points The global financial system has suffered a once-in-a-century meltdown that almost brought the world economy to a halt in late September. Confidence and trust have been shattered. In spite of concerted and extraordinary efforts on the part of central banks and political leaders, including recapitalizing the banks, it is not yet certain that the waves of panic and destruction have been halted. Many of the repercussions have yet to emerge, including possible legal action as well as economic damage. Even before this latest explosion, the leading OECD economies were plunging into an unusually synchronized recession, driven by the simultaneous collapse in consumer and business spending. This will now get worse. Will a severe OECD recession engulf the rest of the world? Up to mid-2008, the emerging markets remained strong - 'decoupling' did work. Now the crisis has deepened, no region will remain immune to shock waves. This time round, the outcome for China will be much more important because it has doubled its share of world GDP over the last decade and is now the single largest contributor to global growth. China will fight to avoid recession, but can it win? If it can keep up growth, bolstered by its enormous pool of savings pent up in the banking system, this will provide important sustenance for the global economy. Without doubt, this crisis will require substantial, persistent and coordinated global efforts to turn around - possibly including yet more extraordinary 'out of the box' measures. The US and EU are now getting to grips with the immensity of the task. The message has become 'whatever it takes' to halt further widespread destruction. Note to Editors Read Synchronized Dive Into Recession: Focus on Damage Limitation Vanessa Rossi is Senior Research Fellow, International Economics Programme, Chatham House. Contact Nicola Norton Media Relations Manager ++ (0) 20 7957 5739 ENDS Wed, 15 Oct 2008 10:13:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/948/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/948/ 13:00, 10th October 2008 - The recent conflict in Georgia poses searching questions for Ukraine, which will require strong political leadership to answer effectively. After months of wrangling, however, Ukraine's ruling parliamentary coalition has formally collapsed amid accusations of a 'constitutional coup' and even high treason. As political deadlock seizes Ukraine once more, the domestic and foreign policy agenda for Ukraine is looking increasingly challenging. Taras Kuzio, a leading expert on Ukrainian politics, will discuss the political crisis in Ukraine, and the implications of the Georgia conflict. This event is by invitation only. Mon, 06 Oct 2008 17:44:46 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/947/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/947/ 13:00, 20th October 2008 - The recent conflict in Georgia will have complex and paradoxical consequences for security in the Caucasus region. For some actors, though by no means all, Russia's show of force may discourage attempts to contest its policy in the region. The subsequent recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, however, could embolden separatist movements within the Russian Federation itself, and further south in Nagorno-Karabakh. Meanwhile the internal security of Georgia is now also uncertain. This event is by invitation only. Mon, 06 Oct 2008 17:29:01 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2310/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2310/ Mon, 06 Oct 2008 16:12:42 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2309/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2309/ This article frames the discussion of the 'state of war' in this issue of International Affairs. Beginning by noting the continued recurrence of 'traditional' modes of war along side so-called 'new wars' and calling to aid Rousseau's brutal satire of 1756, The state of war, the article offers a discussion of three 'responses' to the reality of war in international relations-the heroic response, the realpolitik response and the compassionate response-and argues that a synthesis between them characterizes the general approach to war in any historical period. It then considers how the contemporary synthesis might be viewed and offers thoughts on the articles in this issue in the light of this suggestion. Mon, 06 Oct 2008 16:07:14 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/470/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/470/ The current financial crisis should come as no surprise, writes Dr Paola Subacchi in this month's The World Today. As early as 2004 structural cracks became apparent and now the stability of the international financial system is at stake. The ultimate goal is to prevent a systemic crisis but it is not clear who should take the lead. Also in this month's issue: Martin Plaut, Africa Editor of the BBC World Service, examines the crisis facing South Africa following the removal of President Thabo Mbeki from office. He concludes that what is at stake is the question of whether the judiciary is above political interference. Romilly Gregory of Oxfam explains how cheap mobile phone devices and mobile internet services are fast-becoming critical tools in helping a billion people around the world. Other articles look at Russia and Georgia and the international arms trade. More about The World Today >> Full list of contents: Financial Crisis: Panic, Blame and Crash Avoidance Paola Subacchi Economic Crisis: Down They Fall Vanessa Rossi Russia and Georgia: A Dangerous GameJames Sherr Moscow's Domestic Policy: Russian Roulette Lilia Shevtsova Georgia, Russia and Energy: Going for Gas John Roberts Two-Tier NATO: Alliance DividedTimo Noetzel and Benjamin Schreer Food Reserves: Just One Failed Harvest...Daryll E Ray and Harwood D Schaffer Mobile Phones: Dialling Change Romilly Gregory South African Judicary: Threat to JusticeMartin Plaut South Africa's Leadership: Uncertain Future James Hamill International Arms Trade Treaty: Gun Control Paul Cornish Mon, 06 Oct 2008 12:56:19 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/666/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/666/ This is a summary of a meeting held at Chatham House on 16 September 2008. Thu, 02 Oct 2008 15:41:23 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/664/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/664/ The recent war in Georgia will have both positive and negative consequences for Russia's economy. Doubts over the future viability of energy transit routes through Georgia should assist Russia's market power in Europe, and strengthen its bargaining power vis-à-vis neighbouring oil and gas suppliers. In the longer term, however, the conflict may increase the perceived risk of conducting business in Russia and deter foreign investment. A best guess at the overall economic impact has a long-run net negative effect, superimposed on other factors slowing Russian growth. This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'. Tue, 30 Sep 2008 09:02:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/663/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/663/ Publicly unequivocal in its support for Georgia, the US is privately alarmed by President Mikheil Saakashvili's unpredictability and rashness. This may prompt a re-examination of the risks attached to Georgia's NATO candidature. As for Russia, the US is deeply concerned over the intentions of the regime, and uncertain about the most effective counter policy. The real challenge for the US is how to manage a Russia displaying a dangerous combination of vulnerability and over-confidence. This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'. Tue, 30 Sep 2008 09:00:53 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/662/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/662/ Following the Georgia conflict, Russia's policy towards the EU has been proactive, coherent, and well-articulated. European policy has been none of these things. Europe instinctively clings to the old paradigm of relations with Russia, which does not demand strategic goals to be formulated. The EU must find the courage to address the new reality, and give a greater strategic focus to its dealings with Russia. This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'. Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:59:14 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/661/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/661/ Across Eurasia, recent events have complicated the security agenda. Russia's show of force may deter external actors from contesting its policy towards neighbouring countries; however the subsequent recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia could embolden separatist movements within the Russian Federation itself, and further south in Nagorno-Karabakh. The internal security of Georgia is also now uncertain; the current show of national unity may soon dissipate as increasingly critical questions are asked about poor, if not rash, decision-making in Tbilisi. This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'. Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:57:35 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/660/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/660/ The true driver of Russia's foreign agenda is the domestic situation. The Russian ruling class has returned to a traditional matrix of power which cannot exist without spheres of influence, macho posturing and the search for an enemy. The war provides essential support for the status quo, a status quo which is destroying all modernising impulses. However, the reserves of power and legitimacy needed to maintain this matrix are not unlimited; at some point the elite will face a choice between reform and collapse. The war in Georgia has brought forward this new moment of truth. This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'. Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:55:37 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/659/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/659/ Culpability in this conflict is not equal, but it is shared. Mikheil Saakashvili's decision to respond with force to Russian-sponsored provocation was rash and ill-considered. Russia, which primed the mechanism for the August war, has succeeded in transforming the political and military landscape in the south Caucasus. The West, which also carries responsibility for its policy failures in the region, has given some indications of a more positive approach. The task ahead is to strengthen the security of Russia's neighbours, restore confidence, and create the conditions in which Russia starts to question the value of a foreign policy based on 'spheres of influence'. This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'. Mon, 29 Sep 2008 16:04:02 +0100