http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/rss/18 This feed contains all new research papers added to the Chatham House website. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/652/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/652/ This report argues that unless there is a collapse in oil demand within the next five to ten years, there will be a serious oil 'supply crunch' - not because of below-ground resource constraints but because of inadequate investment by international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs). An oil supply crunch is where excess crude producing capacity falls to low levels and is followed by a crude 'outage' leading to a price spike. If this happens then the resulting price spike will carry serious policy implications with long-lasting effects on the global energy picture. Wed, 06 Aug 2008 10:02:49 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/651/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/651/ This is a summary of an event held at Chatham House on 22 January 2008. Mon, 04 Aug 2008 11:49:43 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/650/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/650/ This is a summary of an event held on 25 February 2008. Mon, 04 Aug 2008 11:47:57 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/649/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/649/ This is a summary of an event held at Chatham House on 21 April 2008. Mon, 04 Aug 2008 11:46:18 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/648/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/648/ This is a summary of an event held at Chatham House on 12 May 2008. Mon, 04 Aug 2008 11:44:30 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/647/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/647/ This is a transcript from a meeting held on 19 June 2008 at Chatham House. Mon, 04 Aug 2008 11:42:15 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/646/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/646/ This is a summary of a roundtable meeting held at Chatham House on 25 June 2008. Fri, 01 Aug 2008 10:09:29 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/645/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/645/ Since 2003, countries whose economies depend on the export of oil and gas have enjoyed a surge of revenue driven by rising oil prices and, in some countries, rising export volumes. The press has captured petroleum-fuelled prosperity in images of futuristic construction plans and the rocketing assets of sovereign wealth funds. However, this obscures important differences among oil and gas exporters in terms of reserves size and social development challenges. Based on a major study of twelve hydrocarbon-exporting countries, this report shows that the boom does not guarantee economic sustainability for these countries, most of which face hard policy choices over domestic consumption, development spending and rates of economic growth. The report estimates the timeframes these countries have in which to make the necessary changes and examine their prospects for success given the existing human, institutional and technical capacity, competitive advantages, infrastructure and access to capital. Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:24:21 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/644/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/644/ This is a Seminar Summary of an event held under the Chatham House Rule, at Chatham House on 5 June 2008. Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:38:46 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/643/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/643/ This is a summary of a roundtable meeting held at Chatham House on 30 June 2008. Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:34:12 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/642/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/642/ Japan's relations with Africa date back to the 1600s, but since 1993 it has formalised its engagement with Africa through the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD). In May 2008 Japan hosted TICAD IV within 2 months of the G8 summit, with the intention of feeding the outcomes of one into the other. The Africa Programme produced a pre-summit report on Japan-African engagement, together with a report on an international conference held at Chatham House to discuss the outcomes of TICAD IV and the G8 summit agenda. Tue, 15 Jul 2008 11:59:03 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/641/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/641/ Download Paper here (French version) This paper considers the challenges that need to be addressed within the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) forest sector if innovative models for the management and financing of the country's forests are to be successfully implemented. These challenges include those related to broader forest governance, i.e. the policy, legal and institutional conditions. It also considers the conditions required to facilitate forest business and enterprises. Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:13:12 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/640/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/640/ This is a summary of a speech given by Dr David Woodruff, London School of Economics, at an event held at Chatham House on 24 June 2008. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 16:19:22 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/639/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/639/ When Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) became effective nearly a decade ago, the euro was seen as having the potential to be the second pillar of the international monetary system. It was expected to share leadership in monetary affairs with the United States. Ten years later, however, the story looks quite different. Although the euro has firmly established itself as an international currency, the degree of change has been considerably less than expected. Europe's joint money remains at a distinct disadvantage in relation to America's greenback, limiting the role it can play in global monetary governance. The euro is not yet ready for 'prime time' and can at best play only a subordinate role to the dollar in the global system. This can be described as a one-and-a-half currency system - certainly not a two-pillar world. The problem lies in the governance structure of EMU. Because the euro is a currency without a country, based on an inter-state agreement, participating members find it difficult to speak with a single voice. The solution lies in a reform of EMU's governing rules and institutions that would put greater emphasis on the euro's external dimension. On the one hand this calls for more proactive management of the currency's exchange rate by the European Central Bank (ECB), together with an explicit commitment by the Eurogroup -the euro zone's informal committee of finance ministers - to undertake effective coordination of national fiscal policies. On the other hand it means designating a single representative of EMU with real authority to speak on behalf of members in international councils. Unless the euro zone can learn how to project power more successfully than it has until now, dual leadership of monetary affairs at the global level will remain out of reach. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 11:43:10 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/638/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/638/ The paper focuses on the connections between: depletion policy including the willingness of some key petroleum-exporting countries to expand production in the medium to long term; development policies linked to depletion, especially the difficulties of diversifying sources of income to replace revenue from petroleum as production ceases to grow, or declines, as a result of natural resource depletion or lack of markets; the creation, use and management of sovereign 'heritage' or 'stabilization' funds by many petroleum-exporting countries which are earning more petroleum revenue than they consider it prudent or possible to spend or invest in development of the non-petroleum sectors of their economies. More about the Research Depletion, Dependence and Development project >> Thu, 03 Jul 2008 11:25:33 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/637/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/637/ In an important shift, inspired partly by drift in the Doha Round negotiations, the EU announced in 2006 that it would seek new free trade area arrangements with fast-growing economies, particularly in Asia. The plan, which ended a moratorium on the launch of bilateral trade talks, in place since 1996, was billed explicitly as a contribution to the EU's own growth and jobs strategy as well as a market-opening exercise. However, the policy has so far been no more effective than multilateral negotiations in producing concrete results. Negotiations with South Korea and ASEAN have made only slow progress, while the state of talks with India remains unclear. The EU spent most of 2007 renegotiating long-standing agreements with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries in an effort to satisfy WTO rules. Meanwhile, the EU's partnership agreements with China and Russia have expired, and appropriate successor arrangements are still being sought. In both cases, a number of important bilateral problems and strains will need to be dealt with. With its various trade negotiations treading water, the EU may need to review its options. One could be a more aggressive pursuit of market access, modelled on the US approach. Alternatively, the EU's traditional preference for multilateral engagement may reassert itself. Wed, 02 Jul 2008 11:36:45 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/636/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/636/ This is a transcript of Itsunori Onodera, Senior Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Japan. The conference, entitled 'Japan-African Engagement: The Outcomes of TICAD IV and the G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit Agenda', was held at Chatham House on 24 June 2008. Event details and presentations. Tue, 01 Jul 2008 16:06:22 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/635/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/635/ This research report forms part of the Civil Society and Environmental Governance in China Project at Chatham House. Mon, 30 Jun 2008 16:36:27 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/634/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/634/ This is a summary of the International Law Discussion Group held on 12 June 2008 at Chatham House. Thu, 26 Jun 2008 11:35:47 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/633/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/633/ This report examines the prospects for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies and the potential development of the region as a Global Financial Centre (GFC) over the next decade, focusing primarily on the economic underpinning, current standing of the financial sector and the region's potential to overcome existing weaknesses in terms of product offering and the scale of operations. More about this project - A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Area. Tue, 24 Jun 2008 10:06:50 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/632/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/632/ At the beginning of the Oslo Process the greatest challenge was the question of Palestinian statehood; negotiation of the refugee issue was postponed until the later stages. Over a decade later, Palestinian statehood is generally accepted as a given, and the refugee issue has taken centre stage. The Israeli perspective, from a leadership standpoint, is seemingly characterized by a sense of being overwhelmed, owing to the complexity of elements making up the refugee issue, the multiplicity of actors involved, and a heightened sense of uncertainty as to the consequences of any negotiated settlement. More strategic work is needed at the political and policy-making level to determine the resolution level required for the agreement itself. Much of the detail involved will have to be developed outside the main negotiation framework. More research and strategy development work is needed concerning the Israeli public domain, to assess existing attitudes and possible avenues for widening the public discourse. To this end, the Israeli media should also be encouraged to present the different debates and elements of the issue. There is a need for an international task force of leading experts working alongside the negotiation process and translating both sides' strategic options into operational frameworks. Such support could ease the load on the actual negotiating parties, thereby facilitating the decision-making process. Read more about this project at Chatham House - The Regional Dimension of the Palestinian Refugee Issue. Tue, 24 Jun 2008 09:27:34 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/631/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/631/ The question of Palestinian refugees has long been one of the most difficult issues in dispute in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. With the onset of renewed peace talks following the Annapolis summit of November 2007, it is once again an issue that the Israeli and Palestinian negotiators must address. The two sides are in a worse position to resolve the issue than they were during the last rounds of permanent status negotiations in 2000-01. The political weakness of the Israeli and Palestinian governments is compounded by heightened mistrust between the two societies, as well as by a hardening of Israeli public attitudes against even the symbolic return of any refugees to Israeli territory. There is now a substantial accumulated body of work on the Palestinian refugee issue to guide and inform negotiators and policy-makers. This includes past official negotiations among the key parties, wider discussions among regional states and the international donor community, unofficial and Track II initiatives and a considerable body of technical analysis. Read more about this project at Chatham House - The Regional Dimension of the Palestinian Refugee Issue. Tue, 24 Jun 2008 09:24:12 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/630/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/630/ The conflicts and humanitarian disasters from Sudan to Somalia are closely linked and a failure to understand this is undermining efforts to find peace, says a new report by Chatham House. The report is a study of three peace processes in the region dealing with the conflicts in Somalia and Sudan and between Ethiopia and Eritrea. It shows how each of these different conflicts feed into each other and exacerbate conflicts in other countries. Mon, 23 Jun 2008 10:53:16 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/629/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/629/ Despite technological and economic advances, some two billion people are without electric light and scientific evidence suggests our use of energy is upsetting climatic systems with grave consequences. Something is seriously wrong with how energy is managed. This Working Paper looks at how we manage energy, who does what and why. Mon, 16 Jun 2008 15:39:26 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/628/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/628/ This is a summary of a speech made by Vladimir Gel'man at a meeting held at Chatham House on 6 June 2008. Thu, 12 Jun 2008 15:55:58 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/627/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/627/ This is a transcript from a meeting held at Chatham House on Friday 6 June 2008. Event details. Tue, 10 Jun 2008 11:12:21 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/626/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/626/ The use of public procurement policy by consumer states to create protected markets for legal and sustainable timber is helping to exclude the products of illegal logging, thereby encouraging the legal and sustainable production of timber. Many countries already possess some form of green procurement policy into which criteria for legal and sustainable timber can easily be fitted. In general no new legislation is needed, so this offers a relatively rapid route to tackling imports of illegal timber. Nine countries currently possess some form of timber procurement policy at central government level. Although they are all very recent in implementation, the evidence already suggests that they are having a positive effect on increasing market share for verified legal and sustainable timber. However, the adoption of different criteria and coverage of products risks making it more difficult for exporters to provide supplies of timber; some degree of technical harmonization would be desirable, and seems likely. The inclusion of requirements for legal and sustainable timber in building standards provides another route for promoting these products. At present, however, the points-based systems that these standards are based on usually encourage, rather than require, sustainable timber. Wed, 04 Jun 2008 14:56:07 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/625/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/625/ European Union engagement with the African Union on peace and security is developing fast, but until now there has been little examination of how effective the engagement is and how it might be improved. In late 2007 the Africa Programme was commissioned by the European Parliament to examine how best the European Union could work to support the emerging Peace and Security Architecture of the African Union, and the subsequent report to the Parliament has just been made public. Written by the Head of the Africa Programme Alex Vines and researcher Roger Middleton, the report recommends that greater attention be paid to supporting AU administrative capacity and better coordinating EU support to build on commendably rapid progress by the African Union in the face of numerous and complex security challenges. Mon, 02 Jun 2008 11:19:27 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/624/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/624/ Demand for food is increasing because the global population is rising and major developing economies are expanding. Global supply capacity, meanwhile, is struggling to keep up with changing requirements. Four global food supply scenarios have been developed by the Chatham House Food Supply Project to consider the challenges created and their impact on the EU/UK: - 'Just a Blip': what if the present high price of food proves to be a brief spike with a return to cheap food at some point soon? - 'Food Inflation': what if food prices remain high for a decade or more? - 'Into a New Era': what if today's food system has reached its limits and must change? - 'Food in Crisis': what if a major world food crisis develops? Across the world the responses to change will be conditioned by uncertainties surrounding the availability of sufficient energy, water, land and skills. EU/UK stakeholders need to start planning now to develop new food supply systems that are up to the task. More about this project: UK Food Supply in the 21st Century: The New Dynamic. Thu, 29 May 2008 10:00:55 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/623/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/623/ The Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) is inspired by the achievements of East Asian countries over the last 40 years. It promotes development in Africa and is the basis of Japan's current relationship with African countries. TICAD is about South-South cooperation and African ownership, advocating their potential for economic and social development. In each of the preceding TICAD conferences, Japan has stressed that Africa's challenges are global issues and argued for collective action by the international community. Convening TICAD IV in Yokohama just over a month ahead of the G8 summit to be held in Hokkaido is good strategy by the Japanese. It is important that the results of TICAD IV impact the G8 communiqué on Africa. This matters as much to Japan as it does to Africa. International prestige is important to Japan, and TICAD is its way of signalling to the international community that it has a strong partnership with Africa. This year marks the halfway point for achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals and TICAD IV offers an opportunity to evaluate progress made. Japan's strength does not lay in the ability to inject huge amounts of cash in aid to the continent. Nor does it lay with investment. What Japan can and should offer African nations is know-how and using its own development experience and that of East Asia to influence Western donors to follow suit. Perceived as relatively neutral on Africa due to its comparatively few investments and less historical baggage, Japan is well-placed to press other G8 members on an African agenda. Fri, 23 May 2008 15:27:23 +0100