http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/rss/18 This feed contains all new research papers added to the Chatham House website. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/684/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/684/ This briefing paper outlines the fluctuations in Uzbekistan's security policy ties and signs recently of a partial re-engagement between Tashkent and Western partner states. Next it summarises security policy perspectives from Uzbekistan, as offered in a series of interviews of officials in Tashkent. Finally, it reviews the diminishing prospects (as of August 2008) for practical security policy collaboration between Russia and the West, in partnership with the local states, over Central Asia and Afghanistan. Tue, 02 Dec 2008 14:48:04 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/683/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/683/ This is a summary of a joint seminar of Chatham House and the International Centre for Strategic and Political Studies (Moscow) supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. Tue, 02 Dec 2008 14:44:46 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/682/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/682/ This is a summary of a joint seminar of Chatham House and the International Centre for Strategic and Political Studies (Moscow) supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. Tue, 02 Dec 2008 14:40:45 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/681/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/681/ This is a summary of a series of conferences and workshops held in London, Moscow and Tashkent between May 2004 and late 2005, organised jointly by Chatham House and the International Centre for Strategic and Political Studies (Moscow), and supported by the Carnegie Corporation (New York), brought together a wide range of international political, military, security and academic experts. Their purpose was to stimulate an exchange of ideas, promote a policy-oriented and lay the foundation for future work aimed at promoting greater coordination and practical cooperation between Russia and the United States and other Western states, as well as Central Asian partners in the struggle against terrorism and new threats emerging in Central Asia and Afghanistan. Tue, 02 Dec 2008 14:36:38 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/680/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/680/ This is a summary of a meeting held at Chatham House on 10 November 2008. Mon, 01 Dec 2008 13:21:14 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/679/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/679/ This is a summary of the International Law Discussion Group meeting held on 6 November 2008 at Chatham House. Tue, 25 Nov 2008 16:28:50 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/678/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/678/ Those concerned with policy-making towards Russia must determine how best to listen to the country's changing conversation with itself, keeping in mind the fact that the West should not suppose itself to have more influence on that inner dialogue than is really the case. Western policies towards Russia have been a contributory rather than determining factor in the country's development since Gorbachev. The main aim of Western policies in the late 1980s and early 1990s was to manage a peaceful transition in Europe as a whole. Policy towards Russia fitted into this wider picture, but could not be, for the West, its sole or determining preoccupation. In the early post-Soviet period, the West pursued two main aims: to work with Russia - and other successor states - to enable the construction of market economies, and to promote democracy. However, the speed of transition could only be set by the Russian leadership. After 2000, Western policy consensus started to dissipate. The West failed early-on to articulate its concerns over the direction the new Russian administration was heading. Putin drew the relevant conclusions from this, and his confidence in his ability to manage his Western counterparts has grown over time. Russia's politics of grievance, its increasing belief that all international resistance is the result of the West's enmity, undermine efforts to build a constructive relationship. The West must avoid being drawn into the myth that Russia was humiliated by the West in the early nineties, and now deserves recompense in the form of spheres of privileged interests. This does not, however, imply a policy of containment. The West should continue to try to engage with as broad a range of Russian actors as it can, whilst treating with profound skepticism the idea that Russia can better determine the interests of its neighbours than their own governments. Mon, 24 Nov 2008 11:28:56 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/677/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/677/ Yemen presents a potent combination of problems for policy-makers confronting the prospect of state failure in this strategically important Red Sea country. It is the poorest state in the Arab world, with high levels of unemployment, rapid population growth and dwindling water resources. President Saleh faces an intermittent civil war in the north, a southern separatist movement and resurgent terrorist groups. Yemen's jihadi networks appear to be growing as operating conditions in Iraq and Saudi Arabia become more difficult. The underlying drivers for future instability are economic. The state budget is heavily dependent on revenue from dwindling oil supplies. Yemen's window of opportunity to shape its own future and create a post-oil economy is narrowing. Western governments need to work towards an effective regional approach with the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, in particular Saudi Arabia. Future instability in Yemen could expand a lawless zone stretching from northern Kenya, through Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, to Saudi Arabia. Piracy, organized crime and violent jihad would escalate, with implications for the security of shipping routes, the transit of oil through the Suez Canal and the internal security of Yemen's neighbours. Wed, 12 Nov 2008 11:37:11 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/676/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/676/ This is a transcript of a speech given by Dr Paul Cornish, Head International Security Programme and Carrington Chair in International Security, Chatham House, at the annual dinner for contributors to The Annual Register on 21 October 2008. Mon, 10 Nov 2008 16:45:19 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/675/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/675/ This is a summary of a meeting held at Chatham House on 10 October 2008. Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:04:23 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/674/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/674/ This paper is informed by a roundtable workshop held at Chatham House in April 2008 to discuss practical policy options on biofuels. Section 1 introduces the critical role that liquid fuels play in energy systems and outlines the possible contribution that biofuels, properly managed, could make. Section 2 sketches the major risks and opportunities that are associated with biofuels, focusing on their uneven contribution to greenhouse gas mitigation, their relative cost inefficiency, and their possible environmental and social impacts. Section 3 outlines the main policy approaches that currently drive production of biofuels in the developed world. Section 4 concludes with some recommendations. Fri, 31 Oct 2008 15:35:44 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/673/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/673/ This is a summary of the International Law Discussion Group held on 9 October 2008 at Chatham House. Thu, 30 Oct 2008 15:53:58 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/672/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/672/ December 2008 marks the thirtieth anniversary of China's official Opening Up and Reform Process. There will be a number of meetings and events from this month till the end of the year in China reflecting, assessing, and celebrating China's achievements since 1978. The Beijing leadership will be looking at the good, and the bad. China's status as the world's third largest economy, the largest holder of foreign reserves, the second largest exporter of manufactured goods, are clear benefits of the reform process. But the costs on the environment, growing energy demands, and the social issues are all problematic - and worsening. With the global credit crisis deepening, China stands in an ambiguous position. The recent Olympic Games improved its image. People in the rest of the world are aware as never before of China's global importance. Given current financial instability, China's state funds increasingly appear a lifeline for beleaguered Western companies. And yet the Chinese leadership look cautious. Will the following months see them emboldened? How much more do we know about China's vision of what it wants to become? Will the rest of the world welcome more proactive moves by China? Or will the same political reservations and fears remain, even when it is clear that the state of the global economy can only be improved through collective effort, to which China is key? Tue, 28 Oct 2008 14:21:07 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/671/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/671/ Provisions for the transfer of technology will be at the heart of any significant international agreement to decrease the production of greenhouse gases (GHG) by developing nations. The Bali 'Road Map' agreed in December 2007 by the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, makes technology one of its pillars, and calls for 'enhanced action on technology development and transfer,' to be provided 'in a measurable, reportable, and verifiable manner.' This reflects a political reality: developing nations are unlikely to accept any form of commitment to control GHG emissions without a reciprocal commitment by developed nations to assist in providing the technologies needed to help reduce these emissions and to facilitate economic development in a climate-conserving manner. Thu, 16 Oct 2008 11:59:00 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/670/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/670/ 'Decoupling' will be declared dead as the global economy heads into a synchronized downturn. However, more careful assessment of the decoupling argument is needed, as it will be relevant in assessing long-term trends beyond the current crisis. The plunge into the abyss will only be temporary - economies will recover and the emerging-market economies will once more streak ahead of the mature OECD bloc. On the other hand, more of the high-income, high-growth newcomers could be incorporated into the OECD over time, perhaps stabilizing the OECD's share of global GDP, compared with the sharp decline seen in recent years. The leading emergers need to be recognized as key players in the global economy and in the policy-making arena. Thu, 16 Oct 2008 11:30:02 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/669/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/669/ The global financial system has suffered a once-in-a-century meltdown that almost brought the world economy to a halt in late September. Confidence and trust have been shattered. In spite of concerted and extraordinary efforts on the part of central banks and political leaders, including recapitalizing the banks, it is not yet certain that the waves of panic and destruction have been halted. Many of the repercussions have yet to emerge, including possible legal action as well as economic damage. Even before this latest explosion, the leading OECD economies were plunging into an unusually synchronized recession, driven by the simultaneous collapse in consumer and business spending. This will now get worse. Will a severe OECD recession engulf the rest of the world? Up to mid-2008, the emerging markets remained strong - 'decoupling' did work. Now the crisis has deepened, no region will remain immune to shock waves. This time round, the outcome for China will be much more important because it has doubled its share of world GDP over the last decade and is now the single largest contributor to global growth. China will fight to avoid recession, but can it win? If it can keep up growth, bolstered by its enormous pool of savings pent up in the banking system, this will provide important sustenance for the global economy. Without doubt, this crisis will require substantial, persistent and coordinated global efforts to turn around - possibly including yet more extraordinary 'out of the box' measures. The US and EU are now getting to grips with the immensity of the task. The message has become 'whatever it takes' to halt further widespread destruction. Tue, 14 Oct 2008 16:44:04 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/668/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/668/ The EU is currently at a hectic stage in the development of its internal climate change policies. Having proposed a package of measures in January 2008, the Commission aims to finalize a deal by the end of the year. The key elements include proposals to improve and extend the EU emissions trading scheme (Europe's flagship carbon market), an allocation of effort between member states on reducing emissions, and an ambitious Directive to meet 20% of the EU's total energy demand from renewable sources. There is also ongoing debate over the support for the demonstration of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. Added into this mix are the international climate change negotiations which are supposed to reach a global deal by the end of 2009. This paper introduces a novel way of looking at the interaction between carbon markets and technology support mechanisms with the hope that an intuitive picture of the fundamentals will promote a clearer and more productive policy dialogue. Wed, 08 Oct 2008 10:45:02 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/667/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/667/ Download Paper here (French version) This is a report of a meeting, Alternative Management Models and Finance Mechanisms for Sustainable Forest Use in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which took place at the Grand Hôtel de Kinshasa from 23-24 June 2008. The objectives of the Kinshasa workshop included (1) the presentation of five proposals developed by different organisations with a view to analysing their feasibility and effectiveness, strengths and weaknesses, and any challenges which have to be overcome; (2) the description of the next steps to be taken, identification of who should implement these and development of a timeline for activities. This meeting was part of the workshop, Towards Sustainable Management and Financing of the Democratic Republic of Congo. More information on the project Developing Innovative Management and Financing Models for the Forests of The Democratic Republic of Congo >> Mon, 06 Oct 2008 10:13:26 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/666/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/666/ This is a summary of a meeting held at Chatham House on 16 September 2008. Thu, 02 Oct 2008 15:41:23 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/665/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/665/ Piracy off the coast of Somalia has more than doubled in 2008; so far over 60 ships have been attacked. Pirates are regularly demanding and receiving million-dollar ransom payments and are becoming more aggressive and assertive. The international community must be aware of the danger that Somali pirates could become agents of international terrorist networks. Already money from ransoms is helping to pay for the war in Somalia, including funds to the US terror-listed Al-Shabaab. The high level of piracy is making aid deliveries to drought-stricken Somalia ever more difficult and costly. The World Food Programme has already been forced to temporarily suspend food deliveries. Canada is now escorting WFP deliveries but there are no plans in place to replace their escort when it finishes later this year. The danger and cost of piracy (insurance premiums for the Gulf of Aden have increased tenfold) mean that shipping could be forced to avoid the Gulf of Aden/Suez Canal and divert around the Cape of Good Hope. This would add considerably to the costs of manufactured goods and oil from Asia and the Middle East. At a time of high inflationary pressures, this should be of grave concern. Piracy could cause a major environmental disaster in the Gulf of Aden if a tanker is sunk or run aground or set on fire. The use of ever more powerful weaponry makes this increasingly likely. There are a number of options for the international community but ignoring the problem is not one of them. It must ensure that WFP deliveries are protected and that gaps in supply do not occur. Wed, 01 Oct 2008 23:08:18 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/664/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/664/ The recent war in Georgia will have both positive and negative consequences for Russia's economy. Doubts over the future viability of energy transit routes through Georgia should assist Russia's market power in Europe, and strengthen its bargaining power vis-à-vis neighbouring oil and gas suppliers. In the longer term, however, the conflict may increase the perceived risk of conducting business in Russia and deter foreign investment. A best guess at the overall economic impact has a long-run net negative effect, superimposed on other factors slowing Russian growth. This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'. Tue, 30 Sep 2008 09:02:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/663/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/663/ Publicly unequivocal in its support for Georgia, the US is privately alarmed by President Mikheil Saakashvili's unpredictability and rashness. This may prompt a re-examination of the risks attached to Georgia's NATO candidature. As for Russia, the US is deeply concerned over the intentions of the regime, and uncertain about the most effective counter policy. The real challenge for the US is how to manage a Russia displaying a dangerous combination of vulnerability and over-confidence. This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'. Tue, 30 Sep 2008 09:00:53 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/662/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/662/ Following the Georgia conflict, Russia's policy towards the EU has been proactive, coherent, and well-articulated. European policy has been none of these things. Europe instinctively clings to the old paradigm of relations with Russia, which does not demand strategic goals to be formulated. The EU must find the courage to address the new reality, and give a greater strategic focus to its dealings with Russia. This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'. Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:59:14 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/661/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/661/ Across Eurasia, recent events have complicated the security agenda. Russia's show of force may deter external actors from contesting its policy towards neighbouring countries; however the subsequent recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia could embolden separatist movements within the Russian Federation itself, and further south in Nagorno-Karabakh. The internal security of Georgia is also now uncertain; the current show of national unity may soon dissipate as increasingly critical questions are asked about poor, if not rash, decision-making in Tbilisi. This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'. Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:57:35 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/660/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/660/ The true driver of Russia's foreign agenda is the domestic situation. The Russian ruling class has returned to a traditional matrix of power which cannot exist without spheres of influence, macho posturing and the search for an enemy. The war provides essential support for the status quo, a status quo which is destroying all modernising impulses. However, the reserves of power and legitimacy needed to maintain this matrix are not unlimited; at some point the elite will face a choice between reform and collapse. The war in Georgia has brought forward this new moment of truth. This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'. Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:55:37 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/659/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/659/ Culpability in this conflict is not equal, but it is shared. Mikheil Saakashvili's decision to respond with force to Russian-sponsored provocation was rash and ill-considered. Russia, which primed the mechanism for the August war, has succeeded in transforming the political and military landscape in the south Caucasus. The West, which also carries responsibility for its policy failures in the region, has given some indications of a more positive approach. The task ahead is to strengthen the security of Russia's neighbours, restore confidence, and create the conditions in which Russia starts to question the value of a foreign policy based on 'spheres of influence'. This briefing note forms part of the series - 'Six Perspectives on the Georgia Conflict'. Mon, 29 Sep 2008 16:04:02 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/658/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/658/ The UN mission that led Sierra Leone out of bloody civil war in 2002 ends on 30 September 2008. Despite significant advances, and landmark elections last year that saw the opposition win power, the country remains amongst the poorest in the world. It is vulnerable to crime, corruption, and the growing power of South American drugs cartels. The UK has been Sierra Leone's major donor since its military intervention in 2000 - the last successful military intervention before the Iraq war. However, slow progress and uncertain prospects for the country mean that the UK is keen to broaden the responsibility for supporting Sierra Leone. There are good signs that the government of Sierra Leone is serious about reform. But if it is to cement stability and growth, it will need to find new international partners, continue its reform efforts, and deter drug-traffickers from establishing themselves in the country. Most importantly, it will need to show greater leadership, confidence and direction to both voters and donors to ensure that widespread goodwill is not eroded by uncertainty and drift. Mon, 29 Sep 2008 13:26:22 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/657/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/657/ This major new report on Britain's role in Europe is published by the Chatham House Commission on Europe after Fifty: Policy Implications for Britain, chaired by Sir Stephen Wall. Its key messages are: The sterile debate about Europe is compromising future British prosperity and security British thinking on international challenges will evolve closer to its EU partners than to the US British leadership is needed, for example, on energy security, to better handle Russia's dominant position The political thinking behind the island mentality that dominates the British debate on domestic security disregards the increasingly mobile nature of 21st century threats. Read the executive summary >> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 17:03:58 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/656/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/656/ This paper is an informal summary of a private roundtable discussion held on 22 July 2008 under the title 'Terrorism, Radicalisation and the Internet'. The meeting began with the presentation of a short paper in which three questions were posed: What role does the Internet really play in radicalisation and can we identify the 'digital footprint' of such activity? Should UK Government's PREVENT policies focus on disrupting the online channel, or on providing credible alternative messages? How can the Internet be used more effectively to pursue extremists and those who radicalise? Mon, 15 Sep 2008 11:11:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/655/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/655/ This background paper attempts to summarise some of the issues for discussion at a Energy, Environment and Development Programme workshop around the following questions: Will biofuels have a large role in the energy mix of the future? What is driving biofuels demand? What are the opportunities and constraints for the supply of biofuels to meet this demand, including their impact? What are the factors that will shape the market for biofuels? The paper concludes by referring to some of the practical policy measures that are being proposed to ensure that biofuels play an appropriate role in a sustainable energy future. Workshop details >> Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:12:57 +0100