http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/rss/18 This feed contains all new research papers added to the Chatham House website. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/759/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/759/ The Forum for China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), established to coordinate relations between the two entities, is due to hold its next meeting later this year. This paper assesses what the outcomes from that meeting will be on this evolving, dynamic, and complex relationship. China's involvement in African countries goes back many years. Relationships from mid 1950s to late 1970s based more on emotional intimacy than that of 1980s and the period after the cold war. To some extent, the current relationship builds more on pragmatic economic considerations. China is already Africa's third largest trading partner. China is a complex actor, and Africa a complex continent. China, while predominantly state led in its behaviour, differs depending on which country it works in Africa, how it works, and what actors are involved, be they state, or non state, companies. Some of this involvement has been positive, with major investment, under very flexible terms, going to aid projects. Some has been highly problematic, causing China reputational damage. In the coming years, China will almost certainly increase its interests in Africa. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 15:31:29 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/758/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/758/ The REP Programme paper Dealing with Russia: The Reset Button by Andrew Wood was published in May 2009. Three experts have written short comment pieces in response to this paper. Thu, 25 Jun 2009 15:37:37 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/757/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/757/ From many perspectives, the London Summit of the G20 leaders at the beginning of April 2009 was a success - and a hard act to follow. The discussion was framed around crisis resolution and the strengthening of the international financial architecture. Beyond any concrete achievement, the success of the London Summit is that it morphed into an ongoing process with a rolling agenda, rather than remaining a one-off event. Undoubtedly the Italian Presidency of the G8 has a hard task, being caught between the success of London and the decreasing relevance of the G8. But there is also scope for building a meaningful bridge between London and the G8 meeting in L'Aquila in July 2009, and continuing and strengthening the economic governance reform process. There is an urgent need to continue to push for progress on a number of key items that were not adequately addressed at the London Summit and where progress can be made in L'Aquila - fostering clarity for the G20 agenda for the next meeting in Pittsburgh in September 2009. With regard, in particular, to the reform of the International Monetary Fund, the Italian Presidency should use its G8 chair to initiate a dialogue on reform of the European representation, taking advantage of having all the key players gathered together in L'Aquila. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 14:23:58 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/756/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/756/ This briefing note explores how the UK can maxmize its relationship with China. Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:53:42 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/755/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/755/ Working from the province by province breakdowns of the 2009 and 2005 results, released by the Iranian Ministry of Interior, and from the 2006 census as published by the official Statistical Centre of Iran, this paper offers some observations about the official data and the debates surrounding the 2009 Iranian Presidential Election. Paper Dissemination The New York Times, Answering Your Iran Questions, 26 June 2009 BBC News, Iran: Where Did All the Votes Come From?, 23 June 2009 Fox News, Iran Guardian Council Rules Out New Election, 23 June 2009 The Guardian, Magic Numbers, 22 June 2009 The Daily Telegraph, Mousavi Urges More Protests as Iran's Hardline Leadership Arrests Opposition Member's Family, 22 June 2009 The Times, Claims of Vote-Rigging in Iran Backed by British Academics' Analysis, 22 June 2009 The Wall Street Journal, Heavy Security Reins in Iranian Protests, 22 June 2009 Los Angeles Times, Iran: Independent Study Finds Irregularities in Election Results, 22 June 2009 CNN, Survey Raises Questions About Iran Vote Results, 21 June 2009 The New York Times, Unrest in Iran Sharply Deepens Rift Among Clerics, 21 June 2009 The Financial Times, Tensions Deepen as UK Rebuffs Tehran Claims, 21 June 2009 Huffington Post, Iran Election Live-Blogging, 21 June 2009 The Guardian, Iran in Turmoil: Live, 21 June 2009 The New York Times, Updates on Iran's Turmoil, 21 June 2009 Sun, 21 Jun 2009 13:32:44 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/754/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/754/ Controlling international trade in illegal timber is an essential part of the international effort to reduce illegal logging, and consumer countries are taking a range of measures to exclude illegal timber from their markets. To date these include the EU's FLEGT licensing scheme and due diligence regulation, the US Lacey Act, and public procurement policies. Since these measures are designed to alter the existing patterns of international trade in timber and timber products, they may interact with the rules governing international trade overseen by the World Trade Organization. Concerns are often raised about whether measures like these are compatible with WTO rules. Since the outcome of any possible dispute case would rest on the interpretation of various clauses of the GATT and other WTO agreements, and since there is no experience to date of WTO dispute cases dealing with even vaguely similar issues, in fact it is impossible to be definite about the outcome of such a case. Nevertheless it is important to be aware of the broad constraints placed by WTO rules in designing measures such as these, which seem likely to be increasingly used in controlling trade in illegal timber. The more the measure diverges from the core WTO principle of non-discrimination in trade, and the more trade-disruptive it is, the more vulnerable it could be to challenge. Within these broad constraints, governments have plenty of flexibility to adopt measures designed to exclude illegal timber from international trade. None of the main measures being pursued at present should experience any conflict with WTO rules. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 11:51:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/753/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/753/ Since the end of the Cold War, China has turned away from an exclusive focus on great-power relations and is now cultivating its relations with the countries and institutions of Southeast Asia. China is pursuing regional cooperation in order to improve bilateral relations, gain political support in international forums, insulate itself against US strategic interests and obtain raw materials for its economy. In the Mekong area these issues are concentrated in a small and geographically well-defined area. Its strategic relevance was spelled out in China's 2002 white paper on national defence. While China is by far the strongest economic, political and military power in the Mekong Basin, its geographical position reinforces this asymmetry: as the source country of the Mekong river, China has control over the development of water resources, therefore exercising a degree of 'hydrohegemony'. Consequently, the area is a focal point for traditional and non-traditional security conflicts, where resource competition is adding new layers to deeprooted, old and complex relations. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:57:46 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/752/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/752/ This is a transcript of Arseniy Yatseniuk, Member of Parliament for Ukraine, who spoke at a Chatham House roundtable event on 14 May 2009. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:55:32 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/751/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/751/ This paper looks at the relationship between Mozambique and the UK. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:48:52 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/750/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/750/ This paper looks at the relationship between Angola and the UK. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:47:58 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/749/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/749/ Although ODI from emerging economies is gaining ground, it remains very much a developed-country phenomenon. China's direct outbound investment flows accounted for only 1.1 per cent of the world total in 2007 and in terms of stocks, China still lags behind many industrial and emerging economies. For fiscal reasons, most Chinese ODI is officially reported to flow to Hong Kong and tax havens. Europe and the rest of the world have only a modest share. Market-seeking considerations rank first and strategic-asset-seeking motivations second in Chinese ODI. State intervention in Chinese ODI is generally exaggerated. The domination of state-owned enterprises in Chinese ODI reflects the fact that government policies generally favour the public sector within the Chinese economy. Chinese investment in Europe is growing but remains relatively insignificant. It is biased towards service activities; in manufacturing it is heavily concentrated in ICT and the automobile sector. Through mergers and acquisitions, Chinese investors seek access to brands and distribution networks or to engineering know-how and customer networks. Greenfield investments aim to access the European market and help to customize products for local needs. Overall, Chinese firms' performances in Europe tend to be disappointing, particularly in terms of profitability. The current economic crisis may provide new investment opportunities but it is also a major challenge for Chinese firms which invested in ailing European firms. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:27:14 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/748/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/748/ Fast rising government deficits and debt across the major economies are leading to the possibility that the average public sector debt/GDP ratio for the OECD could be as high as 100% in a few years time. The US may well be at 75% by the end of 2009 and if the government's deficit remains in the 5-15% of GDP range over the next three to four years, then its debt/GDP ratio will quickly reach 100%. Similarly for leading Euro area economies France and Germany, they could end 2009 with an equally high debt ratio of about 70-75%. With continuing deficits of 3-5% of GDP over the next five years, they too could reach 100%. Japan already has a debt/GDP ratio of 170% (100% for net debt) and yet it will run a large deficit in 2009 and for the foreseeable future. Yet the country under imminent threat of a debt downgrade, losing its AAA status, is the UK, in spite of it enjoying a previously lower debt ratio, of around 50%. This downgrade threat makes little sense - except that the UK has somehow allowed itself to fall into the position of OECD punch bag. This briefing note argues that the UK should have more actively opposed previous examples of the UK economy being pilloried and placed at the bottom of the league tables for the OECD member states performance - the repercussions of allowing the UK economy to become the 'whipping boy' could be more costly to the UK than expected. The UK needs to be more pro-active to avoid this trap. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:55:24 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/747/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/747/ This is a summary of a meeting held at Chatham House on 20 May 2009 with Guillaume Soro, Prime Minister of Côte d'Ivoire. Fri, 22 May 2009 15:58:52 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/746/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/746/ During the economic boom, Kazakhstan's banks borrowed heavily on international markets to finance massive investments in construction and real estate. The international credit crisis has left the country's banks extremely exposed, in turn putting a large section of the economy under threat. The crisis has been compounded by the machinations of certain political elite factions, which are alleged to have taken advantage of the crisis in order to advance private interests. In particular, the state has moved quickly to nationalize the largest bank, Bank Turan Alem (BTA), after it failed to raise its reserves to levels demanded by the government. This appears to be the latest attempt to strengthen the position of the political grouping centred around Timur Kulibaev, which controls Kazakhstan's second and third largest banks. The government takeover of BTA triggered an early debt repayment clause which may lead to bankruptcy for the bank. This could lower Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating, bring down the financial sector, and much of the country's economy with it. Analysts believe that the crisis currently gripping Kazakhstan's banking sector is serving as an important test case scenario insofar as BTA's default could portend other corporate and bank defaults in the former Soviet Union over the next year. Wed, 20 May 2009 10:09:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/745/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/745/ A new US administration has encouraged Russia experts to advocate a fresh approach to the US-Russia relationship. However, the emerging consensus, focussing on the need to 'reset relations' with Russia, overlooks several key issues: the role of the EU and EU countries; the evolution of former Soviet countries; and the realities of Russia itself. Washington's impatience with the diversity of opinion on Russia within the European Union has led it to adopt an unduly bilateral approach. This is understandable but misguided; the depth of the EU's relationship with Russia means that its members, both collectively and severally, have a central role to play in the evolution of US-Russia relations. A renewed emphasis on the US-Russia bilateral relationship may also provoke concern amongst Russia's neighbours that the interests of the 'lands in-between' may be overlooked. US policy must remain aware of Russia's position vis-à-vis its 'near abroad', in particular Ukraine and Georgia, but avoid anything which might appear to accommodate the anxieties and interests of Russia above those of neighbouring states. Those devising strategies on Russia must avoid projecting unrealistic policy aims which ignore the realities of contemporary Russia. Western policy makers should be cognisant of Russia's interests and motives, but not indulge them when they conflict with their own interests or values. Pressing the reset button should not imply that the ideas and emotions which underpin Moscow's attitudes and aspirations are true and justified. Your Comments Would you like to comment on this paper? Please send us your views using the following link: Send your feedback >> PLEASE NOTE: If you decide to send us your comments you agree to allow us to publish them below. If you do not want your name to be published here please make this clear on the feedback form. We reserve the right to decide which comments to publish. Acceptable Use Policy Information Wed, 20 May 2009 10:05:01 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/744/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/744/ Latin America and the Caribbean are currently seeing severe collateral damage to their economies owing to the impact of the global downturn. Although this comes after the longest period of sustained growth since the 1970s, one which has left previously crisis-prone countries with stronger economic credentials than before, forecasts by the major international institutions (IMF, World Bank, ECLAC) are likely underestimating the scale of the local crisis in 2009. The region has primarily suffered as a result of the slump in demand in the industrialized economies, and the subsequent weakening in trade and commodity prices. This has been compounded by the losses in capital and income flows and the tightening of international credit. Regional currencies also witnessed severe devaluations last year although many have recovered some of the lost ground. The impact of the crisis will be particularly severe for the most vulnerable sectors of the population, many of which might be pushed deeper into poverty or unemployment, reversing the gains made during the growth period. However, the macroeconomic lessons gained as a result of previous crises have secured unprecedented fiscal discipline and monetary credibility, leading to the accumulation of foreign reserves and a reduction in the debt burden. This, in turn, has been reflected in upgrading by credit rating agencies and lower country risk premia, which have increased only slightly over the last year, comparing favourably with previous bouts of instability. These factors should help the region to cope with global turbulence and local recession, making it likely to emerge ready for a robust recovery once growth picks up in the industrialized economies. Nevertheless, while medium term prospects appear bright, fundamental concerns remain regarding the region's long-run economic performance, specifically the need for more balanced growth and the alleviation of poverty and social inequalities. Mon, 18 May 2009 14:47:42 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/743/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/743/ This is the second paper in the project on Managing Energy: for Climate and Security. This paper challenges the conventional view of energy in society, and offers a more promising vision. The first paper, Managing Energy Wrong, was published in June 2008. Wed, 13 May 2009 11:03:09 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/742/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/742/ This is a transcript of a meeting held at Chatham House on 22 April 2009. Mon, 11 May 2009 10:22:23 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/741/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/741/ This is a transcript of a Fossil Fuels Expert Roundtable meeting at Chatham House on 15 April 2009. Thu, 07 May 2009 15:35:35 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/740/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/740/ This is a summary of the International Law Discussion Group meeting held on 23 April 2009 at Chatham House. Wed, 06 May 2009 14:10:18 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/739/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/739/ Chatham House's work on the Palestinian Refugee issue, known as the Minster Lovell Process, looks beyond the narrow Israeli-PLO bilateral negotiations and provides a critical regional perspective. It is inclusive of the host countries and the refugees, bridging regional communication gaps and involving international stakeholders. Refugees and host countries will have no legal obligation to go along with the results of a process in which they have no part and which are likely to leave them worse off than before. The political costs of difficult compromises may also be too heavy to bear for any of the stakeholders. Negotiators have reached agreements that they cannot sell to their own people. They have been one step away from a solution but this is a major step involving issues such as right of return of refugees, acknowledgment of responsibility and reconciling narratives. The internal debate on each side is as complex as the differences between them. In addition both sides in the conflict have to contend with the views of an international diaspora. Should an agreement be reached, the landscape will look radically different. The parties, both local and international, have barely anticipated many of the problems of implementing an agreement. In addition, the regional perspective changes the equation - one cannot talk of permanent resettlement activities given that the distances involved are comparable to that of an average Western commute. More information on the project, The Regional Dimension of the Palestinian Refugee Issue >> Fri, 01 May 2009 11:15:36 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/738/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/738/ This is a summary of a meeting held at Chatham House on 12 February 2009 with Professor Gary Sick, Professor of International Affairs, Columbia University and Director, Gulf2000 Network. Wed, 29 Apr 2009 17:13:17 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/737/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/737/ Much energy infrastructure lies in areas that are predicted to become increasingly physically unstable owing to changes in the environment. Already there have been environment-related disruptions to hydroelectric installations, offshore oil and gas production, pipelines, electrical transmission and nuclear power generation. As a result of scheduled decommissioning, revised environmental standards, stimulus spending and new development, there is likely to be substantial investment in new energy infrastructure. It is critical that new and existing infrastructure be designed or retrofitted for changing environmental conditions. It is no longer sufficient only to assess our impact on the environment; now we must also assess the impact of a changing environment on us. Mon, 27 Apr 2009 15:38:23 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/736/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/736/ The All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Nigeria is a group comprised of British parliamentarians from all parties who have an interest in Nigeria. The APPG on Nigeria aims to create a better understanding among British parliamentarians and in the UK of Nigeria and the challenges it faces, to build good relations and to support efforts to promote development and social justice in the country. This is the report of the APPG's fourth visit to the country. The Africa Programme at Chatham House provides administrative and research support to the APPG and participates on the visits. More about the Nigeria Project >> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 16:42:45 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/735/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/735/ This is a transcript of a meeting held at Chatham House on 6 April 2009. Thu, 23 Apr 2009 16:20:59 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/734/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/734/ This is a summary of a meeting held at Chatham House on 7 April 2009. Thu, 23 Apr 2009 15:48:48 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/733/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/733/ This briefing note draws on a meeting of a roundtable of experts held at Chatham House on 26 February 2009 by the Africa Programme and the International Law Discussion Group. It brought together lawyers and practitioners from the military, industry and diplomatic services to clarify some of the legal concerns around combating piracy off the Somali coast. The paper draws on presentations by Agustin Blanco-Bazan of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), Commodore Neil Brown of the Royal Navy and Dr Douglas Guilfoyle from University College London, and on the discussion that followed. The meeting was chaired by Elizabeth Wilmshurst of Chatham House. Read also Piracy in Somalia: Threatening Global Trade, Feeding Local Wars by Roger Middleton. More about the Horn of Africa project >> Tue, 21 Apr 2009 16:55:39 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/732/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/732/ North Africa may not be as stable as it looks: socio-economic and political pressures are fracturing the consensus between governments and governed and may overtake terrorism and criminality as the region's main destabilizing forces. With political leadership in the region effectively a lifelong position, the growth of authoritarianism is undermining the prospects for achieving political and economic liberalization. Despite the worsening global economic climate, a window of opportunity exists to accelerate socially sensitive and productive domestic investment and open space for greater autonomous political and economic development. Success depends on renegotiating the social contracts on which North Africa's states are based. A broadening of participation, above all through the extension of legal employment, targeted investment on education, health and skills, and the establishment of independent legal and regulatory frameworks, will go some way towards addressing socio-economic stresses. A change in the political environment, however, requires a re-evaluation of how the region's security climate is seen from outside, with adjustments in the kind of support given to regional governments by its key international partners, the European Union and the United States. Mon, 20 Apr 2009 09:57:57 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/731/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/731/ Despite the dominance of governing clans, which have corroded Moldova's political and economic life since the election of the Communist president Vladimir Voronin in 2001, Europe has until now looked positively on the country's pluralistic and democratic credentials. The violent disturbances in Chisinau on 7 April have shattered this complacency, raising fears that the government will use the protests as a pretext to impose an authoritarian regime. President Voronin devoted his entire first term to enhancing Moldova's European prospects, strengthening the relationship with Romania, and moving towards a resolution of the Transnistria conflict. Faced with internal challenges, however, Voronin may allow this progress to unravel if he perceives that the 'question of power' can only be resolved by titling the country towards Moscow. The emerging situation in Moldova is attractive to Russia as it strengthens the hand of Transnistria, deepens Voronin's dependency on Moscow, undermines the EU's Eastern Partnership, and provides oblique support to Russia's 'privileged' claims in the former USSR. Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:23:31 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/730/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/730/ This is a summary record of a half-day workshop held at Chatham House on 20 March 2009. Thu, 16 Apr 2009 09:12:48 +0100