http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/rss/4 This feed contains all new publications added to the Chatham House website including research papers, books, The World Today articles and International Affairs articles. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1845/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1845/ While scholars, journalists and policy-makers in Europe and America invariably describe Al Qaeda as a foreign, exotic threat that is difficult to understand, militants who identify with it routinely view their enemies in the most familiar of terms. Whether or not they really understand the west, these men's professions of intimacy with it hint at a more complex relationship. How does the radical Muslim's closeness to his enemy help us understand the character of globalised militancy today? And is it possible to find a global project to replace the murderous mayhem? Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:25:21 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1844/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1844/ How is a country rated in the democracy stakes? Freely-cast votes are one crucial sign, in the case of Iraq official language may be another. Iraqis have voted several times since the end of Saddam Hussein's regime and provincial elections are on course for January 31. But have the ingrained habits of dictatorship really been erased? Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:22:56 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1843/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1843/ After eight years of misguided Middle East policy from President George Bush's administration, an enlightened strategy to tackle the region's plight is overdue. This must include an approach that will bring change to an area consumed by conflict and division and filled with disdain toward the United States. Although the massive economic crisis facing America is and should be President-elect Barack Obama's first priority, he must not hesitate to confront the simmering conflicts in the Middle East that cannot be relegated to the back burner without severely undermining the strategic interest and security of the US. Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:20:32 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1842/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1842/ A new climate is likely at the United Nations climate change conference in Poland early this month and not just because of the election of Barack Obama as President of the United States. The international financial crisis has highlighted the cost of poor policies and the scale of banking bailouts has made dealing with climate change seem less formidable. Besides, such schemes could create new jobs and give an edge to the competitive economies of tomorrow. gsb Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:18:35 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1841/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1841/ The White House will soon echo with the sounds of a younger generation. But the new president and many other world leaders will be forced to wrestle with the issue of ageing populations once immediate financial issues are dealt with. Out of work city traders will not be the only ones worrying about funding a long retirement in these difficult times. Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:16:26 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1840/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1840/ Only one African country - South Africa - was invited to the Washington summit in response to the global economic crisis. The continent fears being left out, just as it is growing economically and adjusting its position in world trade. What impact will the crisis have on Africa? Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:12:54 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1839/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1839/ Is the world ready for a new Bretton Woods agreement? As the economic crisis deepened in recent months, a rising chorus of voices began to call for the replacement of the financial architecture put in place in 1944 at a small resort village in New Hampshire. In response, twenty governments hastily gathered in Washington in mid-November hoping to try to replicate the success of the original conference. Should we be surprised that little was achieved beyond the affirmation of a gaggle of lofty principles? Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:11:02 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1838/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1838/ There are only rare opportunities to reform international financial arrangements, the Washington meeting was the first inclusive one for half a century. After this preparatory skirmish, the difficulties are very clear and now the objectives need to be more clearly defined. Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:03:11 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1837/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1837/ The race is on to ensure that relations between the United States and its European allies are set on the right track from the outset of Barack Obama's presidency. Although they may not like it, the main responsibility for ensuring that the transatlantic relationship does not stumble into a series of disappointed expectations in its first critical year lies more in European capitals than in Washington. Wed, 19 Nov 2008 16:59:49 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/677/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/677/ Yemen presents a potent combination of problems for policy-makers confronting the prospect of state failure in this strategically important Red Sea country. It is the poorest state in the Arab world, with high levels of unemployment, rapid population growth and dwindling water resources. President Saleh faces an intermittent civil war in the north, a southern separatist movement and resurgent terrorist groups. Yemen's jihadi networks appear to be growing as operating conditions in Iraq and Saudi Arabia become more difficult. The underlying drivers for future instability are economic. The state budget is heavily dependent on revenue from dwindling oil supplies. Yemen's window of opportunity to shape its own future and create a post-oil economy is narrowing. Western governments need to work towards an effective regional approach with the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, in particular Saudi Arabia. Future instability in Yemen could expand a lawless zone stretching from northern Kenya, through Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, to Saudi Arabia. Piracy, organized crime and violent jihad would escalate, with implications for the security of shipping routes, the transit of oil through the Suez Canal and the internal security of Yemen's neighbours. Wed, 12 Nov 2008 11:37:11 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/676/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/676/ This is a transcript of a speech given by Dr Paul Cornish, Head International Security Programme and Carrington Chair in International Security, Chatham House, at the annual dinner for contributors to The Annual Register on 21 October 2008. Mon, 10 Nov 2008 16:45:19 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/675/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/675/ This is a summary of a meeting held at Chatham House on 10 October 2008. Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:04:23 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/674/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/674/ This paper is informed by a roundtable workshop held at Chatham House in April 2008 to discuss practical policy options on biofuels. Section 1 introduces the critical role that liquid fuels play in energy systems and outlines the possible contribution that biofuels, properly managed, could make. Section 2 sketches the major risks and opportunities that are associated with biofuels, focusing on their uneven contribution to greenhouse gas mitigation, their relative cost inefficiency, and their possible environmental and social impacts. Section 3 outlines the main policy approaches that currently drive production of biofuels in the developed world. Section 4 concludes with some recommendations. Fri, 31 Oct 2008 15:35:44 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/673/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/673/ This is a summary of the International Law Discussion Group held on 9 October 2008 at Chatham House. Thu, 30 Oct 2008 15:53:58 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2342/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2342/ Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:50:22 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2341/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2341/ Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:49:28 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2340/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2340/ Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:48:04 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2339/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2339/ Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:46:26 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2338/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2338/ European security depends on the effective collaboration of the five major powers; it will be undermined by the extension of NATO, a policy driven by US domestic politics. The main threats to security are: the breakdown of political and economic stability; unintended nuclear proliferation and/or failure of the START process; Russia's evolving political and territorial aspirations. All three will remain marginal as long as Russia is constructively engaged with the West. NATO expansion threatens that engagement. It is seen by all strands of Russian opinion as violating the bargain struck in 1990 and will likely lead to the withdrawal of cooperation. Invitations to Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic cannot be rescinded, but the consequences can be mitigated by refraining from integrating them into NATO's military structure, by ceasing to insist that NATO membership is open to all, and by perpetuating the de facto nuclear-weapons-free zone that presently exists in Central and Eastern Europe. Britain's stance could be pivotal. With an introduction by Michael Clarke. Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:44:25 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2337/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2337/ This review article centres on Abu Ghraib, and in particular the images of Abu Ghraib as deployed in Standard operating procedure (2008), the film by Errol Morris and the book by Philip Gourevitch. The article probes the meaning of the images and the circumstances of their creation. It asks, inter alia, what do we know of the soldier-photographers (or photographer-perpetrators) who took them? What do we know of Abu Ghraib? And how are we to understand what happened there? Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:40:49 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2336/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2336/ Historians, like politicians, need to find a language and frame of reference to connect with their audience or readership. In the current US presidential campaign the candidates, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama, are offering the voters a bridge between the troubled past and a more hopeful future. The works under consideration in this review article employ a similar method. All the authors share the widely held view of the broad shape of US foreign relations since the Second World War, in particular the ideological struggle with the Soviet Union known as the Cold War followed by the more amorphous attempt to maintain American primacy, which has characterized the last two decades. Throughout this longer period the processes and goals of US foreign policy have been controversial: there has not, of course, been complete consensus. One topic which was and remains debated is the role and value of individuals, either high-level politicians or senior diplomats, in the conduct of foreign policy. Another area of debate, often fierce argument, is the impact of domestic forces upon policy-making. In the present case the leading example is provided by the amalgam of influences which determine US policy towards that nexus of competing interests often optimistically short-handed as the Arab-Israeli peace process. One link between these two topics is the role of the US in multilateral bodies; and American actions within the United Nations and towards other international organizations are also examined. These and other related issues are contextualized geographically through an examination of American policies in the Greater Middle East, in particular the predominantly Muslim states which stretch eastwards from Egypt to India. While not providing a partisan political programme for the incoming president to follow, the collective message of these texts offers guidelines, even injunctions for the future conduct of US foreign policy. Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:38:44 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2335/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2335/ The Ahtisaari comprehensive proposal for a settlement of the status of Kosovo met with deadlock in the UN Security Council. It would neither be endorsed nor imposed upon the parties. In view of that position, a new round of negotiations, conducted by the EU, Russia and the US, was launched over a period of 120 days. During these discussions, Serbia's President Boris Tadic revealed a significant measure of flexibility when putting forwards options for wide-ranging self-government for Kosovo. However, these forward-looking positions were undermined by a less advanced proposal emanating from other parts of the Belgrade government, including the Prime Minister. Moreover, the Serbian parliament sought to preempt developments by unilaterally adopting its own constitutional amendments relating to Kosovo, further undermining the credibility of Serbia's position at the international level. However, it could be argued that had Belgrade been willing to begin the previous round of negotiations let by Martti Ahtisaari with the advanced offers it was putting at the very end of the process, a different outcome might have resulted. Such action might have put pressure on western governments to impose an advanced autonomy settlement on Kosovo, rather than putting Belgrade under pressure to accept the Ahtisaari plan. In the end, Kosovo's independence was unilateral in two senses. On the one hand, Kosovo declared independence without the benefit of agreement from Belgrade or cover from the UN Security Council. On the other hand, Kosovo unilaterally accepted the provisions emanating from the Ahtisaari talks. These concessions had been made in the expectation that agreed independence would be forthcoming in return. Belgrade was therefore able to oppose independence and work against its consolidation, while profiting from Kosovo's agreement to the plan it had rejected. Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:33:57 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2334/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2334/ Rising economies including China, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Korea, India, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are subtly changing the rules of foreign aid with profound consequences for the role of multilateral institutions and conditionality. Fears abound that this new aid is bolstering rogue states, fuelling corruption, and increasing the debt burdens of poor countries. This article critically assesses these arguments before dissecting the attractions of emerging donors' aid against a background of established donors' failure to deliver on promises to increase aid, reduce conditionality, better coordinate and align aid efforts, and reform the aid architecture. It argues that a silent revolution is taking place whereby the emerging donors are not overtly attempting to overturn the rules of multilateral development assistance, nor to replace them. Rather, by quietly offering alternatives to aid-receiving countries, they are weakening the bargaining position of western donors. The resulting tensions underscore the urgency of reforming the multilateral aid system. Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:30:21 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2333/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2333/ Soaring oil prices since the early 2000s have led to a historic transformation of wealth from consuming regions to major oil exporters. In recent years many of these exporters have set up oil funds to utilize their massive and growing oil revenues. These funds are divided into two categories-stabilizing and saving. Their large investments in western markets have raised concerns that they might be driven by political and strategic interests rather than commercial ones. This article examines oil funds in the Persian Gulf, Norway and Russia. It discusses US and European proposals to regulate oil funds' investments. The article examines the International Monetary Fund's efforts to forge a consensus on a 'code of conduct' that would guide the relationship between oil funds and the recipient markets. The analysis argues against excessive regulation. Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:26:47 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2332/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2332/ After a decade of relative neglect post-Soviet Central Asia has become a foreign policy priority for the transatlantic community. Both the United States and Europe have engaged with the region in recent years in pursuit of new strategic interests, including maintaining military basing access in support of coalition operations in Afghanistan and securing the export of Central Asian oil and gas to the West. Despite this period of renewed engagement, however, the quality of democratic governance within the region remains poor, especially in comparison with other post-communist regions that successfully completed their political transitions. In fact, the United States and the European Union have often tempered promoting their Central Asian democratization agendas in order to maintain access to these strategically important fixed assets. The transatlantic struggle to balance the pursuit of strategic interests and democratic values has been rendered more difficult by Russia's recent resurgence as a regional power. Backed by the Central Asian governments, Moscow has challenged the purpose and influence of western-based international and non-governmental organizations in the region, thereby further diminishing the transatlantic community's capacity to promote sustained democratic reforms. Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:24:23 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2331/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2331/ Russia's military incursion into Georgia in August 2008 and formal recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia raise fundamental questions about Russian regional policy, strategic objectives and attitudes to the use of armed force. The spectacle of maneouvre warfare on the periphery of Europe could form a watershed in post-Cold War Russian relations with its neighbourhood and the wider international community. The speed and scale with which Russia's initial 'defensive' intervention to 'coerce Georgia to peace' led to a broad occupation of many Georgian regions focuses attention on the motivations behind Russian military preparations for war and the political gains Moscow expected from such a broad offensive. Russia has failed to advance a convincing legal case for its operations and its 'peace operations' discourse has been essentially rhetorical. Some Russian goals may be inferred: the creation of military protectorates in South Ossetia and Abkhazia; inducing Georgian compliance, especially to block its path towards NATO; and creating a climate of uncertainty over energy routes in the South Caucasus. Moscow's warning that it will defend its 'citizens' (nationals) at all costs broadens the scope of concerns to Russia's other neighbour states, especially Ukraine. Yet an overreaction to alarmist scenarios of a new era of coercive diplomacy may only encourage Russian insistence that its status, that of an aspirant global power, be respected. This will continue to be fuelled by internal political and psychological considerations in Russia. Careful attention will need to be given to the role Russia attributes to military power in pursuing its revisionist stance in the international system. Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:20:50 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2330/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2330/ The downturn in relations between the UK and the US under the premiership of Gordon Brown presents an interesting opportunity to analyse the nature of the relationship between the two states. Brown's policy of creating distance between his approach and that of his predecessor, Tony Blair, and between himself and President Bush, offers a case-study in whether it is possible to be cool towards an incumbent leader while remaining close to the state he leads. In other words: is it feasible to be anti-Bush and pro-American? It also provides an opportunity to analyse the role of political timing in inter-state relations. By appearing driven by reaction to the events of 2003 despite taking office in 2007, Brown put himself out of step with the prevailing mood of the time. By also acting as if the Bush administration was a lame duck counting out its time to retirement in 2009, Brown allowed himself to be outmanoeuvred in his bid for America's attention by the conciliatorily pro-American new leaders of France and Germany. By acting as if the Bush administration is a political interregnum, the Brown government has invited the United States to treat his own administration the same way. The result is a dual interregnum in UK-US relations, with each incumbent leader awaiting the political demise of the other before better relations can be resumed. Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:16:38 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2329/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2329/ For the last two decades the US has pursued what some analysts have called the 'fantastical idea' of military transformation that would enable the US to change the very nature of war. Known as the 'revolution in military affairs', this process would use technology to provide the US with battlefield dominance that no opponent could overcome. Motivated by the politics of the Cold War, however, this exit from reality has proved less than effective in what has become known as the 'war on terror'. The US has been pulled into nasty, 'small' wars, against enemies utilizing asymmetric tactics. The Bush administration has tried to destroy these groups through the use of military force, failing, or even worse refusing, to recognize that these enemies feed off the economical, political and social rot of weak and failing states. For the last eight years the US government has addressed the symptoms of a problem rather than the actual disease. If America wants to make serious progress with the most pressing national security risks, the next American president must enact a revolution in foreign affairs that sees a massive overhaul and substantial investment in the State Department and USAID. A critical mass of research exists to illustrate the links between development and security-it is time Washington gets serious and embraces a conception of security that is more holistic, and ultimately, more effective. Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:09:18 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2328/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2328/ The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Bush's unpopularity at home and abroad and the looming threat of recession would have made a gripping drama of the 2008 presidential election campaign even without the ground-breaking emergence of the first credible black and female candidates for the White House. But the defeat of the Democratic establishment's front-runner, Hillary Clinton, by a little-known freshman Senator of mixed ancestry suggested that this was to be the year of the insurgent, just as the Republicans rallied to the least loyal and most contentious of their candidates, the maverick Senator John McCain. The extraordinarily attractive and articulate Senator Barack Obama re-wrote the rule book on winning primaries and caucuses with the help of Silicon Valley and an unprecedented turnout among black and young voters, before veering sharply to the centre once the nomination was secured. Orthodoxy returned at the conventions, with Obama picking a safe centrist as running mate and McCain choosing a Christian conservative, although generating great excitement by nominating a woman and undermining the usual democrat advantage among female voters. And for all the talk of a 'new politics', the year of the insurgents came down at the end, as US elections usually do, to a handful of swing states and the money and organization to win them. Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:05:30 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2327/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2327/ Tue, 28 Oct 2008 14:54:26 +0000