http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/rss/4 This feed contains all new publications added to the Chatham House website including research papers, books, The World Today articles and International Affairs articles. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2408/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2408/ Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:14:10 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2407/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2407/ Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:13:25 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2406/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2406/ Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:12:38 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2405/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2405/ The two books under review, The Tradition of Non-use of Nuclear Weapons, by T V Paul, and Deterrence: From Cold War to Long War. Lessons from Six Decades of RAND Research, by Austin Long, highlight the continued interest in the theory and practice of nuclear deterrence. Long traces the RAND Corporation's research on the subject, exploring the role that nuclear deterrence has played as a strategy of the Cold War. The author goes on to argue for the relevance of nuclear deterrence to the future strategic environment, considering threats from peer-competitors to non-state actors. By contrast Paul considers the rise and persistence of a tradition, or informal social norm, of non-use which has encouraged self-deterrence. Taken together, these books encourage further consideration of the relationship between nuclear deterrence and the tradition of non-use. Indeed, it is difficult to see how the two practices can successfully coexist if non-nuclear states have, as Paul suggests, already begun to exploit the existence of a tradition of non-use. Such deterrence failures, real or perceived, have profound implications for relationships between nuclear and non-nuclear states. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:11:42 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2404/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2404/ China's 30 years of reform are often presented as a seamless progression towards greater liberalization and opening up. This review article of Yasheng Huang's Capitalism with Chinese characteristics shows how the author makes a compelling argument about how radically China's economic reforms changed from before and after the Tiananmen Square incident in June 1989. The 1980s saw the pro-rural, largely equitable, and generally liberal economic policies, with a private sector able to find sources of capital from family or relationship networks, and the creation of a very flexible and largely unplanned town and village enterprise system across China. From the 1990s, however, China has been dominated by pro-urban, less equitable and much more heavily state-led economic policies. Shanghai exemplifies this, with a highly circumscribed non-state sector, stagnation of per capita GDP growth in favour of company growth, and the Pudong development area largely based on land grab, and disrespect for the private property rights of the former tenant farmers based there. China grapples with the legacy of this policy change in 1989 to this day, with an increasingly disenfranchised and impoverished rural population, and cities that are both unsustainable, but irrevocable. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:08:23 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2403/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2403/ Japan and China's ability to manage their bilateral relationship is crucial for the stability of the East Asian region. It also has a global impact on the security and economic development of other regions. For just as China's rise has inevitably involved an expansion of its global reach, so Japan's responses to the challenges posed by China have increasingly taken a global form, seeking to incorporate new partners and frameworks outside East Asia. Japan's preferred response to China's regional and global rise in the post-Cold War period has remained one of default engagement. Japan is intent on promoting China's external engagement with the East Asia region and its internal domestic reform, through upgrading extant bilateral and Japan-China-US trilateral frameworks for dialogue and cooperation, and by emphasizing the importance of economic power to influence China. Japan is deliberately seeking to proliferate regional frameworks for cooperation in East Asia in order to dilute, constrain and ultimately engage China's rising power. However, Japan's engagement strategy also contains the potential to tilt towards default containment. Japan's domestic political basis for engagement is becoming increasingly precarious as China's rise stimulates Japanese revisionism and nationalism. Japan also appears increasingly to be looking to contain China on a global scale by forging new strategic links in Russia and Central Asia, with a 'concert of democracies' involving India, Australia and the US. Nevertheless, Japan's perceived inability to channel China's rise either through regional engagement or through global containment carries a further risk of pushing Japan to resort to the strengthening of its military power in an attempt to guarantee its essential national interests. It is in this instance that Japan and China run the danger of a military collision. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:06:02 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2402/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2402/ The literature on China's regional rise reveals divergent understandings of why China changed its regional strategy and when such a transformation occurred. There are also different understandings of the extent of China's power in the region-or more often, the extent to which US power in East Asia is already challenged by China's regional rise. Nevertheless, there is a consensus of sorts over how Chinese policy has changed with an emphasis on a combination of proactive diplomatic initiatives and ever increasing economic interactions. After providing a brief overview of the existing literature, the main part of this article considers the role of China's 'soft power' in reconfiguring power relationships in East Asia. It suggests that while the US might have lost some of its ideational appeal, it is through working within existing frameworks and 'norms' (rather than establishing new revisionist alternatives) that China has had most success in assuaging fears of the consequences of its rise. However, the way in which others conceive of China's rise and Chinese power (and subsequently act) does provide a form of 'non-hard' power that might help China's leaders attain their regional objectives particularly in light of the continuing global economic crisis. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:01:51 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2401/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2401/ As its economic power, military strength and cultural influence expands, India draws ever closer to becoming a leading player in world politics. Yet relatively little is known about what Indians take to be the nature of international politics and, correspondingly, how their power and influence should be used. A survey of Indian political thought reveals sharp disagreements. Moralists wish for India to serve as an exemplar of principled action. Hindu nationalists want Indians to act as muscular defenders of Hindu civilization; strategists advocate cultivating state power by developing strategic capabilities; and liberals seek prosperity and peace by increasing trade and interdependence. This article argues that current trends indicate that India will increasingly prioritize its quest for prosperity and peace. But if this quest is thwarted by external threats, then calls to enhance India's military power will most probably grow louder, and be heeded more closely. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:47:43 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2400/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2400/ The American decision to deploy missile defence in Poland endangered the central myth of Putin's regime (Russia's rebirth as a Great Power), challenged the status of Putin as Russia's strongman, and introduced an additional uncertainty into the carefully scripted campaign for succession to Putin. It also hit the raw nerve of Russia's reliance on nuclear weapons. The character of Russian policy-making has guaranteed the worst-case scenario evaluation of the American programme. The Russian elite's world view has magnified the problems resulting from the deployment into fears of a window of vulnerability. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:46:25 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2399/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2399/ Historically the NATO allies have focused considerable attention on US 'extended deterrence' - that is, the extension by Washington of an umbrella of protection, sometimes called a 'nuclear guarantee'. A persisting requirement has been to provide the allies with assurance about the reliability and credibility of this protection. This article examines the definition of 'assurance' used by the US Department of Defense for most of the past decade and argues that it has drawn attention to long-standing policy challenges associated with US extended deterrence in NATO. The article considers the assurance roles of US nuclear forces in Europe, as well as elements of assurance in Washington's relations with its allies regarding extended nuclear deterrence. Whether the allies will retain the current requirements of extended deterrence and assurance in their new Strategic Concept or devise a new approach will be an issue of capital importance in the policy review launched at the Strasbourg/Kehl Summit. Contrasting approaches to these questions are visible in the United States and Germany, among other allies. The main issues to be resolved include reconciling extended deterrence with arms control priorities; managing the divisions in public and expert opinion; and avoiding certain potential consequences of a rupture with established arrangements. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:43:45 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2398/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2398/ Preparations for the next UK defence review are under way; a struggle is imminent and the lines of battle are being drawn. There is a grave danger that in the new 'age of austerity' defence planning-and strategy generally-will be driven by tribal conflicts, either between supporters of one or other of the armed services or between contending viewpoints about the nature of conflict. And there will be others who will argue that the defence review should be driven simply by the need to reduce government expenditure, as quickly as possible. These arguments not only reduce the defence debate to a struggle between various incompatible and uncompromising tribal beliefs-'war among the fetishes', perhaps-they also miss the point. This article gauges the extent of the economic challenges which the UK defence establishment will confront over the coming decade. The authors consider how best to approach the problem of undiminished (and even expanding) commitments at a time of decreasing resources. They argue that defence planning should be driven by the notion of value (the ratio of function to cost), which in turn requires both a clear national political vision and a defence establishment which is output- rather than input-oriented. Finally, the authors assert that defence must transform itself to be able to achieve the outputs required in the most efficient and responsive manner. Read also: Blair's Wars and Brown's Budgets: From Strategic Defence Review to Strategic Decay in Less Than a DecadePaul Cornish and Andrew Dorman, International Affairs, March 2009 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:31:58 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2397/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2397/ One of the most striking financial developments in recent years is the emergence of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs)-large publicly owned investment portfolios, which are growing rapidly in both number and size. In a global environment already roiled by a prolonged credit crisis, SWFs raise tricky and potentially controversial new questions for international financial regulation. One issue of concern to many in host countries is the possibility that some SWFs might be used for overt or tacit political purposes, posing a challenge for global monetary governance: a Great Tradeoff between the world community's collective interest in sustaining the openness of capital markets and the legitimate national security concerns of individual host countries. Can some balance between the two be found that will be both stable and acceptable to all concerned? Individually as well as collectively, recipient countries have begun to address the regulatory challenge directly. To date, however, accomplishments have been slight and have failed to stem a noticeable drift towards financial protectionism. A review of some recent proposals suggests that there is no foolproof solution to the Great Tradeoff. But the potential for controversy could be significantly reduced by a negotiated agreement among host governments addressing three key issues: definitions, risk assessment and dispute resolution. The most logical venue for such an exercise would be the OECD, building on its already extensive experience with international investment issues. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:28:52 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2396/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2396/ Political protest in Europe and the problematic politics surrounding bank recapitalization in the US have raised growing concerns about the rise of populist politics. Populist politics is problematic in its search for simplistic solutions to complex problems, its disdain for institutions and its political ambiguity. Nonetheless, the rise of populist mobilization also points to genuine concerns about the functioning of democracy. The politics of financial regulation has been dominated by a narrow, utilitarian and technocratic mode of policy-making that has tried to limit public debate, favouring an expert discourse which privileges questions of efficiency over questions of distribution. This article explores the distributional issues at stake in banking recapitalization (particularly questions about the returns governments receive for their investment) and regulation (through an exploration of the financialization literature). It argues that, while populist appeals to 'the people' are too ambiguous to be helpful, given the complexity of the interests at stake in financial regulation, there is a need for a wider and more democratic debate about financial regulation that pays greater attention to distributional issues. Populist mobilization can create pressure for debate, even if it presents few solutions. As a result, we should be wary of moves to shift too much regulation to the international level where populist mobilization is less effective. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:24:49 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2395/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2395/ Many insist that the world economy today is in the grip of the most severe financial crisis since 1931. Although the origins of this crisis are in dispute, the extent and scale of the changes prompted by it are becoming clear. Among these changes are a recalibration of the relationship between public and private authority, a reconfiguration of the regulatory responsibilities and capacities of the state with respect to the financial system, and a rebalancing of relations of power among states. While the financial crisis has generated points of stress along all of these axes of change, we should be wary of expecting an entirely new global financial order to emerge from the carnage. The complex links between financial order and world politics suggest that this financial crisis will result in an evolutionary rather than a revolutionary transformation in the world's financial order. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:20:48 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2394/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2394/ Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:17:53 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2393/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2393/ Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:16:33 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2392/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/archive/view/-/id/2392/ Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:15:24 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/759/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/759/ The Forum for China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), established to coordinate relations between the two entities, is due to hold its next meeting later this year. This paper assesses what the outcomes from that meeting will be on this evolving, dynamic, and complex relationship. China's involvement in African countries goes back many years. Relationships from mid 1950s to late 1970s based more on emotional intimacy than that of 1980s and the period after the cold war. To some extent, the current relationship builds more on pragmatic economic considerations. China is already Africa's third largest trading partner. China is a complex actor, and Africa a complex continent. China, while predominantly state led in its behaviour, differs depending on which country it works in Africa, how it works, and what actors are involved, be they state, or non state, companies. Some of this involvement has been positive, with major investment, under very flexible terms, going to aid projects. Some has been highly problematic, causing China reputational damage. In the coming years, China will almost certainly increase its interests in Africa. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 15:31:29 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/758/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/758/ The REP Programme paper Dealing with Russia: The Reset Button by Andrew Wood was published in May 2009. Three experts have written short comment pieces in response to this paper. Thu, 25 Jun 2009 15:37:37 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/757/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/757/ From many perspectives, the London Summit of the G20 leaders at the beginning of April 2009 was a success - and a hard act to follow. The discussion was framed around crisis resolution and the strengthening of the international financial architecture. Beyond any concrete achievement, the success of the London Summit is that it morphed into an ongoing process with a rolling agenda, rather than remaining a one-off event. Undoubtedly the Italian Presidency of the G8 has a hard task, being caught between the success of London and the decreasing relevance of the G8. But there is also scope for building a meaningful bridge between London and the G8 meeting in L'Aquila in July 2009, and continuing and strengthening the economic governance reform process. There is an urgent need to continue to push for progress on a number of key items that were not adequately addressed at the London Summit and where progress can be made in L'Aquila - fostering clarity for the G20 agenda for the next meeting in Pittsburgh in September 2009. With regard, in particular, to the reform of the International Monetary Fund, the Italian Presidency should use its G8 chair to initiate a dialogue on reform of the European representation, taking advantage of having all the key players gathered together in L'Aquila. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 14:23:58 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1925/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1925/ The euro is weathering its first global crisis. Some see threats to its very existence, to its banks and from inflation. A policy of wait and see will not do, action is needed now. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:09:18 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1924/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1924/ On the verge of crucial mid-term elections, President Felipe Calderon's struggling government is facing the fallout from the swine flu epidemic, unabated drug violence and the country's third economic crisis in as many decades, the worst in the western hemisphere. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:08:17 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1923/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1923/ Smaller states selling to the highest bidder; not a distant Cold War memory, rather a new reality in Central Asia. And for good measure, as he shakes hands on a new deal with Russia the president of Kyrgyzstan gives his people the chance to renew his power. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:07:00 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1922/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1922/ Preparing for the first visit by United States President Barack Obama, Moscow sees the global recession not only in economic terms, but also as a sign that the political and ideological predominance of the west is withering. Despite itself being severely affected by the meltdown, Russian leaders sense the right moment to launch ambitious new policy proposals on pan-European security and energy. While the Kremlin might be right in assuming that, stricken by crisis, Europe is open to new ideas, its schemes are not a real alternative. It is also unclear, whether Russia is prepared to play by the rules it so actively promotes. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:05:17 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1921/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1921/ This year was meant to herald the end to the carbon-intensive global energy system. Instead of sending unmistakable signals to the global markets that change is imminent and inevitable, the climate negotiators gathering in Bonn last month did just the opposite. Two weeks of talks resulted in several hundred pages of negotiating texts. The already complex politics of climate negotiations is now burdened with the kind of technical and beggar-thy-neighbour haggling that has stalled many trade talks. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:04:13 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1920/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1920/ Is the election promised for next year the best opportunity for change in Burma, or a cynical attempt by the military to hold onto power? Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:02:58 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1919/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1919/ Next year, Burmese will vote in their first national elections for twenty years. The process is deeply flawed, but it will represent the most important political shift for a generation. The international community must seize this rare opportunity to induce the government to move towards greater openness and reform. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:02:01 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1918/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1918/ Once presidential elections are out of the way in Iran, there may be a window of opportunity for a new policy to end the thirty-year standoff with the United States. Europe negotiated with Tehran for some two years until 2005, during the longest freeze in its nuclear activities. There are important lessons for Washington in any new initiative. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:00:34 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1917/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1917/ Time will tell if President Barack Obama's speech in Cairo on June 4 is remembered as a landmark in relations between America, the Middle East and Muslims around the world. One thing it should achieve in the short term is to reassure those who think he is opposed to democracy promotion. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 10:58:57 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1916/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/1916/ President Barack Obama's Cairo speech has been hailed around the world. It struck just the positive tone needed to embark on a 'new beginning'. And against the predictions of many commentators he did not duck the 'democracy' issue. Of course, the president said little about how the United States will endeavour to support democratic reform in the Middle East. Having raised expectations, he will be conscious that failure to deliver will engender huge disappointment in the region. Nevertheless, the speech has put the issue of international democracy back on the agenda. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 10:57:52 +0100