http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/rss/5 This feed contains all new press releases added to the Chatham House website. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/474/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/474/ Yemen presents a 'perfect storm' of problems for Western governments confronting the prospect of state failure in this strategically important Red Sea country, according to a new Chatham House paper. Yemen is the poorest state in the Arab world, where jihadi networks appear to be growing as operating conditions in Iraq and Saudi Arabia become more difficult. Yemen's economy is heavily dependent on revenue from oil sales but oil production is declining. Based on original research conducted over 16 months in Yemen, this paper by journalist and film-maker Ginny Hill says future instability in this weak and incomplete state has the potential to expand a lawless zone stretching from northern Kenya, through Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, to Saudi Arabia. Piracy, smuggling and violent jihad would flourish, with implications for the security of shipping routes, the transit of oil through the Suez Canal and the internal security of Yemen's neighbours. 'Yemen: Fear of Failure' concludes that Yemen's window of opportunity to shape its own future and create a post-oil economy is narrowing. This fragile state faces several complex and intertwined challenges: the strain on political instability posed by the impending transition of power, multiple internal threats to security, rapid population growth and dwindling water resources. The scale of the problem and the speed of action required pose a challenge both to the international community and to advocates of reform within Yemen. Western governments need to work towards an effective regional approach that includes the tacit approval of Saudi Arabia. The prospect of state collapse in Yemen would reduce any chance of progress towards peace in Somalia and further endanger the security of countries throughout the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa. NOTES TO EDITORS Read paper: Yemen: Fear of Failure Ginny Hill is a freelance journalist and TV producer. She has reported from Yemen and the Horn of Africa for the BBC, the Economist, the Christian Science Monitor and Jane's Islamic Affairs Analysis. Her film on Somali refugees in Yemen was broadcast by Channel 4 News, CNN, al-Jazeera English and France 3. Ginny Hill is available for interview on +44 (0) 7779 790 356 For all other media enquiries, please contact Nicola Norton +44 (0)20 7957 5739 pressoffice@chathamhouse.org.uk Ends Wed, 12 Nov 2008 11:31:35 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/473/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/473/ Chatham House experts offer their perspectives on the key foreign policy and economic challenges facing the new administration. The following quotes and comments from Chatham House are available for immediate use. Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House Mr Obama's first job will be to keep Americans safe and not to please the international gallery. This does not mean that Europeans should resign themselves to be disappointed. Read full comment >> Alex Vines, Research Director and Head, Africa Programme: Reining in stratospherically high expectations both from within Africa, and from within his own administration, will be a principle pre-occupation for the first years of Obama's Africa policy. Read full comment >> Dr Gareth Price, Head, Asia Programme: Barack Obama, whose formative years were spent in Indonesia, in some ways brings greater cultural awareness of the diverse region than any previous president. Read full comment >> Dr DeAnne Julius, Chairman, Chatham House: The downward lurch of the US economy during the final month of the campaign undoubtedly helped Mr Obama win the election. Can he now return the favour by arresting the economic decline? The fundamentals are against him. Read full comment >> Dr Paola Subacchi, Research Director, International Economics Cries for the end of US economic hegemony may be premature. Despite being badly hit by the credit crisis, the US may still show great resilience. Read full comment >> Robin Shepherd, Senior Research Fellow, Europe There are many unanswered questions on Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel-Palestine and Russia. Obama needs to put meat on the bone now. Read full comment >> Dr Claire Spencer, Head, Middle East Programme: The main headaches for the US administration will remain the three 'Is': Iran, Iraq and the lingering Israel-Palestine conflict. Read full comment >> James Sherr, Head, Russia and Eurasia Programme: It is important for the USA that Russia regain respect for its competence, interests and the judicious use of American power. Read full comment >> Notes to Editors Read all comments in full >> More information on the Chatham House Project, 'Rethinking the United States' International Role' >> Forthcoming event:Monday 17 November 2008 The Whitehead Lecture: Major Foreign Policy Challenges for the Next US President The 2008 Whitehead Lecture will be given by Dr Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Advisor to the President of the United States (1977-1981). Contact: Nicola Norton Media Relations Manager ++ (0) 20 7957 5739 ENDS Tue, 04 Nov 2008 17:48:08 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/471/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/471/ A new paper by Chatham House says that the once-in-a-century economic meltdown means that OECD countries' simultaneous collapse in consumer and business spending will get worse and more extraordinary 'out of the box' measures may still be needed before the situation turns around. The paper, Synchronized Dive Into Recession: Focus on Damage Limitation, by Vanessa Rossi, Senior Research Fellow, International Economics Programme, also analyzes China's increasingly important role as the single largest contributor to economic growth. Summary Points The global financial system has suffered a once-in-a-century meltdown that almost brought the world economy to a halt in late September. Confidence and trust have been shattered. In spite of concerted and extraordinary efforts on the part of central banks and political leaders, including recapitalizing the banks, it is not yet certain that the waves of panic and destruction have been halted. Many of the repercussions have yet to emerge, including possible legal action as well as economic damage. Even before this latest explosion, the leading OECD economies were plunging into an unusually synchronized recession, driven by the simultaneous collapse in consumer and business spending. This will now get worse. Will a severe OECD recession engulf the rest of the world? Up to mid-2008, the emerging markets remained strong - 'decoupling' did work. Now the crisis has deepened, no region will remain immune to shock waves. This time round, the outcome for China will be much more important because it has doubled its share of world GDP over the last decade and is now the single largest contributor to global growth. China will fight to avoid recession, but can it win? If it can keep up growth, bolstered by its enormous pool of savings pent up in the banking system, this will provide important sustenance for the global economy. Without doubt, this crisis will require substantial, persistent and coordinated global efforts to turn around - possibly including yet more extraordinary 'out of the box' measures. The US and EU are now getting to grips with the immensity of the task. The message has become 'whatever it takes' to halt further widespread destruction. Note to Editors Read Synchronized Dive Into Recession: Focus on Damage Limitation Vanessa Rossi is Senior Research Fellow, International Economics Programme, Chatham House. Contact Nicola Norton Media Relations Manager ++ (0) 20 7957 5739 ENDS Wed, 15 Oct 2008 10:13:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/470/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/470/ The current financial crisis should come as no surprise, writes Dr Paola Subacchi in this month's The World Today. As early as 2004 structural cracks became apparent and now the stability of the international financial system is at stake. The ultimate goal is to prevent a systemic crisis but it is not clear who should take the lead. Also in this month's issue: Martin Plaut, Africa Editor of the BBC World Service, examines the crisis facing South Africa following the removal of President Thabo Mbeki from office. He concludes that what is at stake is the question of whether the judiciary is above political interference. Romilly Gregory of Oxfam explains how cheap mobile phone devices and mobile internet services are fast-becoming critical tools in helping a billion people around the world. Other articles look at Russia and Georgia and the international arms trade. More about The World Today >> Full list of contents: Financial Crisis: Panic, Blame and Crash Avoidance Paola Subacchi Economic Crisis: Down They Fall Vanessa Rossi Russia and Georgia: A Dangerous GameJames Sherr Moscow's Domestic Policy: Russian Roulette Lilia Shevtsova Georgia, Russia and Energy: Going for Gas John Roberts Two-Tier NATO: Alliance DividedTimo Noetzel and Benjamin Schreer Food Reserves: Just One Failed Harvest...Daryll E Ray and Harwood D Schaffer Mobile Phones: Dialling Change Romilly Gregory South African Judicary: Threat to JusticeMartin Plaut South Africa's Leadership: Uncertain Future James Hamill International Arms Trade Treaty: Gun Control Paul Cornish Mon, 06 Oct 2008 12:56:19 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/469/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/469/ As the UN prepares to withdraw its peacekeeping mission from Sierra Leone this week, the country remains at risk of renewed instability, says a new Chatham House paper. One year after landmark elections in Sierra Leone put the opposition All People's Congress Party (APC) in power, the country remains the poorest in the world, made worse by high oil prices, global food shortages and the burgeoning drugs trade. 'Sierra Leone a Year after Elections' argues that poverty, unemployment, corruption and a history of violence leaves the country especially vulnerable. Further, a new threat is growing in the form of South American drug cartels seeking to use Sierra Leone and other West African countries as an access route to Europe. West Africa has within recent months become the principle route for cocaine into Europe. The report's author, Tom Cargill, argues that whilst there are good signs the government is serious about reform, it will need to show greater leadership and confidence to both voters and donors if the country is to develop and prosper. The challenges to the year-old government of Sierra Leone are massive as it struggles against multiple competing priorities, with limited assistance from the international community. NOTES TO EDITORS The UN mission that led Sierra Leone out of civil war in 2002 ends on 30 September 2008. Read the briefing paper: Sierra Leone a Year after Elections: Still in the Balance Tom Cargill is Assistant Head of the Africa Programme at Chatham House Tom Cargill is available for interview. Contact: Nicola Norton Media Relations Manager +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 +44 (0) 7917 757 528 nnorton@chathamhouse.org.uk Ends Tue, 30 Sep 2008 09:56:11 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/468/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/468/ Six new briefing notes from the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House offer analysis and insight on the conflict in Georgia. Culpabilities and Consequences James Sherr, Head, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House Culpability in this conflict is not equal, but it is shared. Mikheil Saakashvili's decision to respond with force to Russian-sponsored provocation was rash and ill-considered. Russia, which primed the mechanism for the August war, has succeeded in transforming the political and military landscape in the south Caucasus. The West, which also carries responsibility for its policy failures in the region, has given some indications of a more positive approach. The task ahead is to strengthen the security of Russia's neighbours, restore confidence, and create the conditions in which Russia starts to question the value of a foreign policy based on 'spheres of influence'. Read briefing note >> After the Battle: What the August War will mean for Russia's Domestic Politics Dr Lilia Shevtsova, Carnegie Moscow Center; Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House The true driver of Russia's foreign agenda is the domestic situation. The Russian ruling class has returned to a traditional matrix of power which cannot exist without spheres of influence, macho posturing and the search for an enemy. The war provides essential support for the status quo, a status quo which is destroying all modernising impulses. However, the reserves of power and legitimacy needed to maintain this matrix are not unlimited; at some point the elite will face a choice between reform and collapse. The war in Georgia has brought forward this new moment of truth. Read briefing note >> The Paradoxical Regional Implications of Russian Actions in Georgia Professor Neil Macfarlane, St Anne's College, Oxford University Across Eurasia, recent events have complicated the security agenda. Russia's show of force may deter external actors from contesting its policy towards neighbouring countries; however the subsequent recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia could embolden separatist movements within the Russian Federation itself, and further south in Nagorno-Karabakh. The internal security of Georgia is also now uncertain; the current show of national unity may soon dissipate as increasingly critical questions are asked about poor, if not rash, decision-making in Tbilisi. Read briefing note >> Russia and Europe in the Aftermath of the Georgian Conflict: New Challenges, Old Paradigms Dr Arkady Moshes, Finnish Institute of International Relations; Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House Following the Georgia conflict, Russia's policy towards the EU has been proactive, coherent, and well-articulated. European policy has been none of these things. Europe instinctively clings to the old paradigm of relations with Russia, which does not demand strategic goals to be formulated. The EU must find the courage to address the new reality, and give a greater strategic focus to its dealings with Russia. Read briefing note >> US-Russian Relations After the Events of August 2008 James Nixey, Manager, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House Publicly unequivocal in its support for Georgia, the US is privately alarmed by President Mikheil Saakashvili's unpredictability and rashness. This may prompt a re-examination of the risks attached to Georgia's NATO candidature. As for Russia, the US is deeply concerned over the intentions of the regime, and uncertain about the most effective counter policy. The real challenge for the US is how to manage a Russia displaying a dangerous combination of vulnerability and over-confidence. Read briefing note >> The August 2008 Conflict: Economic Consequences for Russia Professor Philip Hanson, University of Birmingham; Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House The recent war in Georgia will have both positive and negative consequences for Russia's economy. Doubts over the future viability of energy transit routes through Georgia should assist Russia's market power in Europe, and strengthen its bargaining power vis-à-vis neighbouring oil and gas suppliers. In the longer term, however, the conflict may increase the perceived risk of conducting business in Russia and deter foreign investment. A best guess at the overall economic impact has a long-run net negative effect, superimposed on other factors slowing Russian growth. Read briefing note >> Contact Nicola Norton Media Relations Manager +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 +44 (0) 7917 757 528 nnorton@chathamhouse.org.uk Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:21:24 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/467/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/467/ Piracy off the coast of Somalia has more than doubled in 2008 and threatens to disrupt international trade and could potentially become a weapon of international terrorism, says a new Chatham House paper. Pirates are regularly demanding and receiving million-dollar ransom payments and their operations are become increasingly sophisticated. The pirates have improved their equipment and now use GPS systems and satellite phones giving them a greater ability to capture potential targets. 'Piracy in Somalia: Threatening Global Trade, Feeding Local Wars' says the danger of piracy could mean shipping is forced away from the Gulf of Aden into the longer route to Europe and North America. The extra weeks of travel and fuel consumption could have a major impact on oil and commodity prices. The paper also argues that Somali pirates could become agents of international terrorist networks. Already money from ransoms is helping to pay for the war in Somalia, including funds to the US terror-listed Al-Shabaab. In a region that saw the attacks on the USS Cole, the possibility of seaborne terrorism should be taken seriously. As a result of piracy, the World Food Programme (WFP) has been forced to temporarily suspend food deliveries to drought-stricken Somalia. Canada is now escorting WFP deliveries but there are no plans in place to replace their escort when it ends later this year. In this paper, Roger Middleton, outlines a number of options available to the international community to reduce the risks of piracy but stresses that ignoring the problem is not one of them. Only a political solution in Somalia offers a long-term solution to piracy. NOTES TO EDITORS Read Piracy in Somalia: Threatening Global Trade, Feeding Local Wars. Roger Middleton is a consultant researcher working for the Africa Programme at Chatham House. He specializes in the politics of the Horn of Africa, African Peace and Security and Africa's relations with the EU. Roger Middleton is available for interview. Mobile: +44 (0) 7886 927 694 Contact: Nicola Norton Media Relations Manager +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 +44 (0) 7917 757 528 nnorton@chathamhouse.org.uk Ends Mon, 29 Sep 2008 16:34:33 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/466/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/466/ Chatham House is pleased to announce the launch of the Strategic Focus on Turkey Project supported by Doğan Holding. This project will analyse and highlight some of the significant issues resulting from the geo-political and geo-economic position of Turkey, and its implications for British, European, US, Turkish and other governments' policies. Areas of research will include Turkey's role in the Middle East, its role in diversifying Europe's energy security and Turkey's role in the development of the Black Sea region and Central Asia. In addition, Mrs Arzuhan Doğan Yalcındağ, a member of the Board of Directors of Doğan Holding has agreed to join the new Chatham House Panel of Senior Advisers, to which she will bring her experience and personal insights on Turkey, Turkey's relationship with its neighbours and allies, and on global economic issues, including the role of the media in the process of globalisation. Mrs Doğan Yalcındağ, is a member of the Board of Directors of Doğan Holding, founding member of the Aydın Doğan Foundation - a philanthropic organisation promoting education, health, sporting activities and culture in Turkey - and the first-ever woman to become President of TÜSİAD (the Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmens' Association), a leading civil society organisation in Turkey. Doğan Holding is one of the pre-eminent business groups in Turkey with extensive activities in the media, tourism, energy, real estate and insurance sectors. It has joint partnerships with a number of well-established international companies, including CNN (part of AOL-Time Warner), Axel Springer, OMV, Universal Music Group, Burda GmbH and Egmont Publishing. Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House said: 'Chatham House will be in a position to help give Turkey and its strategic role the prominence it deserves in the international policy debate. We are especially grateful to Mrs. Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ and Doğan Holding for supporting this initiative. I am also delighted that Chatham House will benefit from the input and expertise of Mrs Arzuhan Doğan Yalcındağ as a member of the institute's new Panel of Senior Advisers.' Mrs. Arzuhan Doğan Yalcındağ said: 'Dogan Holding is very happy to support a distinctive project on Turkey with world-leading think-tank Chatham House. I look forward to sharing my insights on Turkey and other significant issues in international affairs among such a distinguished globally-renowned group of individuals in foreign policy, business and civil society on the Panel of Senior Advisers.' Turkish translation >> More information on the project >> Mon, 29 Sep 2008 13:12:15 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/464/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/464/ Chatham House is pleased to announce the creation of a new Panel of Senior Advisors, a group of individuals with deep, first-hand experience of policy-making and business. Panel members will provide a sounding board for our policy conclusions and help communicate our ideas at the highest levels in the UK and abroad. The Panel of Senior Advisors has been established by the Chatham House Council, which maintains exclusive responsibility for the operation and management of the institute. We are especially pleased that Lord Hurd of Westwell, former UK Foreign Secretary and one of our three honorary Presidents, has agreed to co-chair the Panel for the first two years. Other founding members of the Panel are: Lord Browne of Madingley President, Royal Academy of Engineering; and Chief Executive, BP (1995-2007) Arzuhan Doğan-Yalçindağ Board Member, Doğan Sirketler Grubu Holding SA, Turkey Mary Francis CBE Non-Executive Director, Centrica, Arriva and St Modwen; Director, Bank of England (2001-07) André Hoffmann Vice-Chairman, Board of Roche Holding Ltd Lord Hurd of Westwell President, Chatham House; UK Foreign Secretary (1989-95) Lord Jay of Ewelme Permanent Under-Secretary, Foreign Office (2002-06) Sir Paul Judge Chairman, Schroder Income Growth Fund plc; Deputy Chairman, Royal Society of Arts Lord Kerr of Kinlochard Permanent Under-Secretary, Foreign Office (1997-2002); Vice-Chairman, Royal Dutch Shell Nemir Kirdar Founder, Executive Chairman and CEO, Investcorp Mark Leland President, Marc E. Leland and Associates, USA; Co-Chairman, German Marshall Fund of the United States Rachel Lomax Deputy Governor, Monetary Policy, the Bank of England (2003-08) Sir David Manning British Ambassador to the United States (2003-07); foreign affairs and defence adviser to Prime Minister Tony Blair (2001-03) Baron Marshall of Knightsbridge Chairman, Nomura International plc and Pirelli UK David Mott Chief Executive and President, MedImmune, USA Sir Michael Rake Chairman, BT Lord Robertson of Port Ellen President, Chatham House; Secretary General, NATO (1999-2003) John C Whitehead Founding Chairman, Lower Manhattan Development Corporation, USA; former Co-Chairman of Goldman Sachs Further information about the members of the Panel >> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 11:00:26 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/463/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/463/ President John Kufuor of Ghana has been voted by members the winner of the 2008 Chatham House Prize. The President will visit London on Monday 27 October to collect his award from HRH The Duke of Edinburgh. The presentation will be made at a dinner at Drapers' Hall in the City of London with keynote speeches by Lord Ashdown, a President of Chatham House, and Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Managing Director of the World Bank. The 2008 Chatham House Prize honours President Kufuor for his tireless and selfless mediation in multiple crises across the continent during his chairmanship of the African Union in 2007. It also recognizes his positive role in mediating conflicts with Ghana's more immediate neighbours, including Liberia and Cote d'Ivoire. In Ghana he has made economic growth a priority and contributed to social freedom and the development of a robustly free press. Other nominees for the 2008 Chatham House Prize were: HH the Aga Khan, Founder, Agha Khan Development Network; Ambassador Christopher Hill, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, US; and HE Angela Merkel, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany. More information on 2008 nominees >> Event details, attendance and sponsorship information >> NOTES TO EDITORS Journalists are welcome to attend the ceremony and to cover the presentation of the award by HRH The Duke of Edinburgh to President Kufuor. The speeches by Lord Ashdown and Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala will be delivered after the dinner and will not be open to the media. Photographers will be permitted on the same basis. For more information contact: Nicola Norton Media Relations Manager +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 +44 (0) 7917 757 528 nnorton@chathamhouse.org.uk About the Chatham House Prize The annual Chatham House Prize is awarded to the statesperson who is deemed by Chatham House members to have made the most significant contribution to the improvement of international relations in the previous year. The selection process draws on the expertise of Chatham House's research teams and three presidents - Lord Ashdown, Lord Hurd and Lord Robertson. Our members are then invited to vote for the winner in a ballot. The winner is presented with a crystal award and a scroll signed by our Patron, Her Majesty The Queen. The award ceremony and dinner takes place at a City of London venue with keynote speeches by leading figures in international affairs. The recipient of the Prize or a keynote speaker from the ceremony will also be invited to address a Members' Event on or around the day of the award. Sponsors of this year's award ceremony include Lead Sponsor Royal Dutch Shell plc as well as Bloomberg News, British American Tobacco, Chevron, and Tullow Oil. Chatham House is delighted to recognize their contribution as it underlines their commitment to the values and purpose of the Prize. More information on the Chatham House Prize >> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 10:53:02 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/462/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/462/ MAJOR NEW REPORT The Chatham House Commission on Europe after Fifty, chaired by Sir Stephen Wall, has published a major new report on Britain's role in Europe - A British Agenda for Europe: Designing Our Own Future. Britain's Future Prosperity and Security are Dependent on a Stronger EU The new report, A British Agenda for Europe: Designing Our Own Future, concludes that Britain's ability to deal with the principal external challenges of the 21st century will depend on its active participation in effective EU policies. The report argues that, following the Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty, it would be wasteful if Britain were to fall back into its paralysing and perennial stand-off between Eurosceptic and Euroenthusiastic opinion. Sir Stephen Wall, Chair of the Chatham House Commission, says: 'In this report, we have tried to analyse how best the British interest can be safeguarded and promoted. If we conclude that we can best do it by working with those of our European neighbours who share our political values that is a conclusion driven by hard logic, not soft love.' The report also concludes that British thinking on many of the international challenges of the next decade - from combating climate change to dealing with a rising China - will evolve closer to its EU partners' views than to those of the United States. No government, whether one of the world's major powers, an intermediate power like Britain, or a smaller state, will be able to protect the interests of its citizens on its own. Therefore, a clear British vision that looks beyond the Lisbon Treaty at the range of risks emerging from beyond Europe's borders is essential. THE KEY CONCLUSIONS OF THIS REPORT INCLUDE: Britain should continue its leadership on EU enlargement The EU should develop a formal pathway that could lead to enlargement negotiations with Ukraine. Ukrainian integration into the EU would further stabilize a European country that has great economic significance for the EU in a number of areas, including food production and energy transportation. Russia's efforts to reassert its influence over its near abroad make this especially compelling. Further, there is an urgent need to accelerate EU planning on Georgia, provided it demonstrates full commitment to democratic norms, an open economy and the ability to take on the EU's legal structure. The need to build a more integrated European energy market Britain's energy picture will change radically over the coming two decades. As supplies of British North Sea oil and gas decline, increased imports of gas will have to come from Russia. Britain should push for a more coordinated European energy strategy in order to be in a position to better handle Russia's dominant position within European energy markets. The government's priority should be to help create a more physically interconnected EU energy market, integrating national electricity and gas grids and gas storage. This would lessen British and other EU countries' vulnerability to supply disruptions and also deliver considerable efficiency gains. Britain should also promote the idea of EU members giving the European Commission the mandate to negotiate the terms under which outside suppliers like Russia secure access to EU energy import markets. Using the EU to enhance Britain's domestic security The island mentality which dominates the British debate on domestic security disregards the increasingly mobile nature of 21st century threats. Confronting a terror plot aimed at London but coordinated in Frankfurt and Calais requires Europe-wide structures and procedures for judicial, police and counter-terrorism cooperation. Britain's arrangement to be able to opt in or out of current formal EU procedures in this area allows it the flexibility to pick and choose its areas of cooperation. In the future, however, there is the real risk that Britain will be excluded from certain enhanced areas of EU cooperation, as it is currently from the Schengen Information System. Notes to Editors: Read report: A British Agenda for Europe: Designing Our Own Future Chatham House convened a Commission on Europe after Fifty: Policy Implications for Britain whose members would bring to the study a combination of different areas of individual expertise and experience on the European Union. Commission Members >> Sir Stephen Wall, chairman of the Commission, will be available for interview. Dr Robin Niblett, Director of Chatham House, will also be available for interview. MEDIA ENQUIRIES Nicola Norton Media Relations Manager +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 +44 (0) 7917 757 528 nnorton@chathamhouse.org.uk Wed, 17 Sep 2008 17:22:18 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/461/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/461/ The collapse of World Trade Organization talks in July this year is a severe - perhaps fatal - setback for the Doha world trade round. Restoring momentum will be an arduous task as the breakdown is due to more than just differences between members, but is indicative of the deep institutional problems in the WTO. This is the conclusion of a Chatham House Report, After the Doha Débâcle: What Next for the Global Trade System? The report highlights the problems facing any future talks and suggests alternatives to trade rounds. Summary: The troubled history of the Doha trade talks, which suffered their latest breakdown in July 2008, is due to more than differences between members' negotiating positions. It is a symptom of deeper institutional problems in the WTO, as it struggles to adjust to global economic change. At stake are not only prospects for a further push to open world markets, but the primacy of the WTO as the maker and enforcer of the multilateral rules that underpin the international economic order. Although reforms of WTO procedures may be desirable, they will not be enough to restore momentum. WTO members need also to develop a new model of leadership, define a clearer mission for the organization and pursue domestic policies that buttress its role. It is unclear whether governments possess the political energy or commitment required to undertake that effort. But continued drift risks weakening the organization and could, in the longer term, undermine the integrity of the rules-based trade system. In the conclusion, Guy de Jonquières, author of the paper, notes that Brazil has already said it is considering challenging the legality of US and EU farm subsidies in the WTO, which could potentially prompt retaliatory legal action on other issues. This could lead to further breakdowns in the Doha talks, alternatively threats to the integrity of the WTO could push members into tackling the challenges facing the WTO. Notes to Editors: Read After the Doha Débâcle: What Next for the Global Trade System? Guy de Jonquières is a senior research fellow with the International Economics Programme at Chatham House. For media enquiries please contact: Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager Direct: +44 (0)20 7957 5739 Mobile: +44 (0)7917 757 528 Email Nicola Norton Thu, 11 Sep 2008 10:07:09 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/460/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/460/ The world will experience a serious oil supply crunch within five to ten years unless there is a collapse in oil demand. This is the conclusion of a new Chatham House report, The Coming Oil Supply Crunch, which predicts a resulting oil price spike that could exceed $200 a barrel. Investment in new supplies has been and will be inadequate. This is partly due to incentives for international oil companies to return dividends to shareholders rather than reinvest them. It is also a result of a resurgence in 'resource nationalism' and some governments starving their national oil companies of investment funds. To ward off a potential crisis, the report recommends helping producers manage 'resource curse' issues, welcoming sovereign wealth funds and bringing OPEC into the International Energy Agency's emergency sharing mechanism. The rise in price itself has continued partly because OECD governments are reluctant to intervene in energy markets. The market alone cannot necessarily provide sufficient incentives for conservation, fuel-switching or bringing more energy on-stream, so this laissez-faire attitude has failed to either constrain demand or increase supply. But, given the coming price spike, governments may well be forced to change tack. Professor Paul Stevens, the report's author, explains the dynamics of current high prices in comparison with past oil shocks. The report argues that not enough money and expertise were invested in the 1990s to maintain excess capacity to produce crude oil if consumption continues along present trends. History shows us that whenever such excess capacity is run down, the oil price rises sharply. Notes to Editors: Read The Coming Oil Supply Crunch >> Paul Stevens is Senior Research Fellow for Energy at Chatham House and Emeritus Professor at Dundee University. He has published extensively on energy economics, the international petroleum industry and the political economy of the Gulf. For media enquiries please contact: Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager Direct: +44 (0)20 7957 5739 Mobile: +44 (0)7917 757 528 Email Nicola Norton Thu, 07 Aug 2008 15:30:33 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/459/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/459/ As the Universal Declaration of Human Rights approaches its sixtieth anniversary, this month's The World Today looks at the status of human rights worldwide. Louise Arbour, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights 2004-8, writes that while there may be much to celebrate, the goal of making human rights truly universal is far from being achieved. Profound and deepening divisions between rich and poor, a security environment that exposes minorities to additional risks, and an expanded UN membership, have all amplified and exacerbated cultural, religious and political divisions especially on issues such as human rights. Against this background of shifting interests and values, in the name of which, all too often, discrimination is perpetrated, international human rights law provides the best, most reliable and fairest guide for managing and protecting multiple identities. The task now is not only to prompt states to give real effect to human rights but also to create a constituency for the middle ground where different national and regional interests, concerns and experiences can meet, be reconciled and directed to honour the purpose of the Universal Declaration. This will ensure future generations are better equipped to uphold the Declaration's universal principles. Read article. More about The World Today >> Full list of contents: Human Rights Anniversary: Without Want or Fear Louise Arbour China and Human Rights: Power to the People Kerry Brown Rights in Africa: Why Africa? Bonita C. Meyersfield Children's Rights: Young and Vulnerable Mary Buckley Islam and Human Rights: In the Name of Islam Maha Azzam United States and Human Rights: Ending Lapse into Lawlessness Kenneth Roth US Presidential Election: Choice or Echo? Robert Singh UN and EU Terrorist Blacklists: I've Got a Little List Monika Heupel Book Review: Punishing the Wicked David Bentley Ukraine and NATO: Destination Unknown James Sherr Angola Elections: Back to Ballots Indira Campos Politically-Capped Reserves: Let the Oil Flow? Daniel Litvin Securing Electricty: Blackout Bill Durodié Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:37:15 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/458/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/458/ In this issue of International Afffairs, Thomas Hegghammer traces the history of the Saudi jihadist movement. Based on primary sources and extensive fieldwork in the Kingdom, the article argues that jihadism in Saudi Arabia differs from jihadism in the Arab republics as it's driven primarily by extreme pan-Islamism and not socio-revolutionary ideology. The article also traces the outbreak - and failure - of the 2003 terrorist campaign by 'Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula' (QAP). This campaign was made possible by the presence in 2002 of a critical mass of returnees from Afghanistan, a clever two-track strategy by Al-Qaeda, and systemic weaknesses in the Saudi security apparatus. The near-absence of violence in the Kingdom before 2003 was due to Al-Qaeda's weak infrastructure in the early 1990s and bin Laden's 1998 decision to suspend operations to preserve local networks. Now, the Saudi regime is more stable and self-confident - and therefore less inclined to democratic reform -than it has been in many years. Read article. Full list of contents: The Responsibility to Protect and the Problem of Military Intervention Alex J Bellamy Righting the Course? Humanitarian Intervention, the 'War on Terror' and the Future of Afghanistan Fatima Ayub and Sari Kouvo The Vienna Negotiations on the Final Status of Kosovo Marc Weller Iran Under Ahmadinejad: Populism and its Malcontents Ali Ansari Islamist Violence and Regime Stability in Saudi Arabia Thomas Hegghammer 'An Enemy at the Gates' or 'From Victory to Victory'? Russian Foreign Policy Andrew Monaghan Security and Democracy: The ASEAN Charter and the Dilemmas of Regionalism in South-East Asia David Martin Jones Using Negotiation to Promote Legitimacy: An Assessment of Proposals for Reforming the WTO Cecilia Albin The Dynamics of British Military Transformation Theo Farrell The End of Impunity? Lessons from Sierra Leone Gillian Wigglesworth Book Reviews Other Books Received Index of Books Reviewed Mon, 28 Jul 2008 15:21:50 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/457/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/457/ Petroleum-fuelled prosperity is masking the challenge of oil depletion and removing the sense of urgency that is desperately needed to promote diversification in oil-exporting states. All eyes are on supply-demand dynamics instead of how these countries' economies - so linked to our own - can be sustained as oil and gas resources deplete. A new report by Chatham House says today's oil-price boom may be raising the global profile and financial clout of oil-exporting countries but their dependence on oil, (and gas) revenues has increased. This cannot continue: production will level off and eventually fall; rising energy consumption at home will reduce the amount available for export. For these countries to continue to grow, dependence on oil revenues must be reduced. The report discusses, with some pessimism, the capacity of most of these countries to reduce their dependence by developing new sources of government revenue and export earnings from the non-hydrocarbon sectors of their economies. The study estimates, under simple assumptions and various scenarios, how long each of the twelve exporting countries looked at here, would have until it must begin reducing dependence, how big the reduction should be by 2025, and when exports are likely to tail off. Strikingly, it shows that even Saudi Arabia must plan for export decline, and explains why some countries might rationally choose to keep oil in the ground, even at over $100 a barrel. The prospects for many are not that good. Only three of the twelve countries are clearly on a path of ending their dependence on oil: for most of the others, time is running out for finding sufficient alternatives to sustain current or even moderate rates of growth in the long term. Notes to Editors: 'Ending Dependence: Hard Choices for Oil-Exporting States' is written by John V Mitchell and Professor Paul Stevens from the Energy, Environment and Development Programme, Chatham House. The report looks at Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Nigeria, Norway, Saudi Arabia and Timor Leste. More information on the Resource Depletion, Dependence and Development project can be found here. For further information please contact: Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:53:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/456/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/456/ As President Sarkozy prepares to reinvigorate the regional arrangement between the EU and the Mediterranean - the Barcelona Process - Claire Spencer argues in Europe and the Mediterranean: Eyeing Other Shores, that the project is flawed having failed 'to escape its underlying logic: that it is a European initiative'. As such, the process has been designed to meet Europe's own regional objectives rather than foster cooperation and integration. It is not clear why there is a need for another regional Mediterranean Partnership. The slow results of existing efforts suggest the current framework could be part of the problem as much as the solution. And yet, President Sarkozy has gone to great lengths in promoting his new framework for regional cooperation, soon to be adopted by the EU. With France leading the union's initial launch and project selection, there are grave suspicions that it will be used to advance French commercial interests under an EU umbrella. To survive, the scheme must be flexible and new mechanisms will be needed to overcome the deficiencies of the Barcelona Process itself, as well as its new addition. It must be visible through the direct engagement of those most immediately motivated by shared interests on both sides of the Mediterranean. More about The World Today >> Full list of contents: European Union Treaty: Trust the PeopleRobin Shepherd Ireland No Vote: Ways Out of the Irish Puzzle Thomas Legge Europe and the Mediterranean: Eyeing Other Shores Claire Spencer South Africa: Fundamental Failures Merle Lipton Book Review: Good for Government Alex Vines Small Arms: Gun Control Eric Berman The Gulf in the G8 Agenda: Top Table Time? Vanessa Rossi and Ruth Davis Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy: Discreet Persuasion Neil Partrick Energy for Asia: Chasing Pipe Dreams Elizabeth Mills Burma after the Cyclone: Making a Disaster Out of a Cyclone Ashley South Analysing North Korea: Big Wheel Turning Rudiger Frank Profile - Sir Richard Dearlove: Overestimating Al Qaeda?Sean Armstrong Mon, 30 Jun 2008 16:44:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/455/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/455/ A new report from Chatham House examines the prospects for the GCC (Gulf) states' economies and the potential development of the region as a Global Financial Centre (GFC) over the next decade. 'The Gulf as a Global Financial Centre: Growing Opportunities and International Influence' concludes that the Gulf's global economic status is impressive, underpinning significant growth in the financial sector and potentially the rise of the GCC as a top rank global financial centre. In principle, the GCC could overtake both Australia and a weakened Japan in the IFC rankings over the next decade. Economic growth and wealth creation will continue to provide the big punch behind the GCC 'brand' - regional GDP will comfortably exceed the $1 trillion mark in 2008, moving the GCC further up the top 10 in terms global GDP rankings. However, appropriate recognition of this status is needed in order to support the GCC's aspirations in global finance: remarkably for economies of such high standing, they are typically still treated as 'developing countries' in spite of GDP/capita being well above emerging market levels, even excluding the energy sector. None of these countries has joined the OECD and there is notably no representation at the world's top table, the G8 summits. However, the continued development of the region's economic and financial power suggests an urgent need for the GCC's position to be reviewed by all parties and new channels of communications, discussion and influence to be opened up. This review should also acknowledge the importance of Gulf finance and the aspirations for development of the region's financial sectors. The GCC is well positioned to act as a key hub in global financial markets, serving the wider Asia-MENA region. To enable the GCC to leverage its position, an important development would be the creation of a larger, deeper debt market, whether based on Western-style bonds or the Sharia model, building on the region's strength in Islamic finance. This implies a radical departure for the GCC in terms of the role played by government debt and project finance, its potential in promulgating local market activity and broadening the base of the financial sector. If successful, this move could open up a much larger role for the GCC in global debt markets, especially across the Middle East and Asia. This would provide a massive 'hinterland' within which the GCC's financial sector could expand and fulfil the target of becoming a GFC. It would also help the global community to meet the task of coping with the surge in "new wealth", reducing global asset imbalances. GCC cooperation will be essential in achieving these goals and a positive step in this direction is the recently confirmed plan to set up a common Monetary Council by next year, another step towards a common currency. Notes to Editors: 'The Gulf as a Global Financial Centre: Growing Opportunities and International Influence' is published by Chatham House at 14:00 on Thursday 26 June 2008. The author is Vanessa Rossi, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House. Chatham House undertook this study in conjunction with the leading financial centres in the Gulf region, namely Bahrain, Dubai and Qatar. The project forms part of the cooperation effort across these centres and reflects their joint efforts to foster further progress in the area of finance and development. The views expressed in this report remain those of the Chatham House authors. For further information, please contact: Press Office Direct: +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 ENDS Thu, 26 Jun 2008 14:16:34 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/454/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/454/ A WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 17 nations around the world finds a widespread perception that widows and divorced women are treated worse than other women. In only two countries do a majority say that there is no discrimination against widows and in only one country does a majority say there is no discrimination against divorced women. In 12 of the 17 nations polled, about 4 in 10 perceive there is some or a great deal of discrimination against widows. The same is true for discrimination against divorced women. On average across all 17 nations, just 28 percent say there is no discrimination against widows at all, while 20 percent say there is a little, 27 percent some, and 16 percent a great deal. Similarly, for divorced women, an average of 27 percent say there is no discrimination, 21 percent say a little, 28 percent some, and 18 percent a great deal. "Discrimination against widows and divorced women appears to be a phenomenon of many countries, not just some traditional cultures," says Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org. "People in most countries, including developed ones, recognize there is at least some discrimination." Poorer treatment may take a variety of forms. In less developed countries, women's rights and development experts have long noted that wherever the wife has trouble securing her property rights after her husband's death, the widow and her children can become impoverished-in extreme cases by being stripped of her land or goods and expelled from the household. Divorce laws that do not recognize the wife's labor as constituting an economic stake in the household can have the same result. In developed countries, since women live longer, gaps in a country's social safety net are more likely to affect women. In the United States, for example, poverty rates for widows and divorced or separated women are far above the average. Steven Kull adds, "While there have been no large-scale studies quantifying the scope of discrimination against widows and divorced women, the thousands of respondents in the poll report that the problem is quite widespread." The poll is being released in advance of International Widows Day (June 23). This year is also the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which states that: "Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration, without distinction of any kind, such as…sex," and goes on to say that "men and women…are entitled to equal rights as to marriage, during marriage and at its dissolution." Interviews with 17,595 respondents were conducted in 17 nations representing 59 percent of the world's population. This includes most of the largest countries in the world-China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Russia-as well as Mexico, Britain, France, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Egypt, Iran, Turkey, the Palestinian Territories, Thailand and South Korea. Margins of error range from +/-2 to 4 percent. The survey was fielded between Jan 10 and May 6. More details can be found at: www.WorldPublicOpinion.org. More information on the Widows Project can be found here. Contact Steven Kull: +1 202 232 7500 Chatham House Press Office: +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 pressoffice@chathamhouse.org.uk Mon, 23 Jun 2008 11:36:29 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/453/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/453/ The conflicts and humanitarian disasters from Sudan to Somalia are closely linked and a failure to understand this is undermining efforts to find peace, says a new report by Chatham House. The report is a study of three peace processes in the region dealing with the conflicts in Somalia and Sudan and between Ethiopia and Eritrea. It shows how each of these different conflicts feed into each other and exacerbate conflicts in other countries. The report argues that including the Horn of Africa in the 'war on terror' has only exacerbated the situation and has polarized parties along religious lines. It finds no positive signs that the enmity between Ethiopia and Eritrea will soon come to an end and sees a particularly bleak future for Somalia which now faces a worse humanitarian situation than before the Ethiopian intervention, while the Somali Transitional Federal Government has been quite unable to establish its authority in the country. The report finds some positive signs in the Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement but highlights the many stumbling blocks that need to be avoided. The lack of understanding around the historical background of conflicts in the Horn of Africa has hampered comprehensive solutions to conflicts and undermined international efforts. In the long run the report argues that growing economic interdependence is likely to offer the best route to a peaceful future for the region. Note to Editors: 'Lost Opportunities in the Horn of Africa: How Conflicts Connect and Peace Agreements Unravel' is written by Sally Healy OBE, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House. The report is a product of the Horn of Africa Group, a collaboration between Chatham House, The Centre for African Studies at the University of London, the Rift Valley Institute and the Royal African Society. Interview bids: Sally Healy is based in London and available for interview. Contact: +44 (0)7952 592492 Email Sally Healy For further information please contact: Press Office Direct: +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 ENDS Mon, 23 Jun 2008 11:13:26 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/452/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/452/ Alex Vines, Head of the Africa Programme, has been awarded an OBE in the Queen's Birthday Honours in recognition of the work he has done in founding and developing the Africa Programme at Chatham House (The Royal Institute of International Affairs). Dr Robin Niblett, Director of Chatham House, said, 'I am delighted that Alex's work has been recognised in this way. Alex has personally led the expansion of research on Africa at Chatham House. He brings a high level of personal expertise and a reputation for impartial investigation which have made the Africa Programme at Chatham House one of the principal sources of new analytical insights and one of the key destinations for African political figures and other stakeholders seeking to influence the broader policy agenda on Africa'. Since being established in 2002, the Africa Programme has steadily grown to take a leading global role in supporting more informed public awareness and policy decision making with regards to African states and their international relations. Its contribution takes the form of briefings, reports, awareness raising and work undertaken to support those who inform international relations. In recent years Chatham House in London has become a principal venue for keynote speeches by Africa government and opposition figures, including those of Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, Somalia, Sudan and Rwanda. Key areas of Alex Vines' work include analyses of the effectiveness of UN sanctions in Africa, political risk in Africa, and the proliferation of light weapons and landmines in Africa. Alex has recently also been a Chair of the UN Panel of Experts on Côte d'Ivoire and a Member of the UN Panel of Experts on Liberia. Mon, 16 Jun 2008 17:07:14 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/451/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/451/ Next week's United Nations summit on world food security in Rome needs to achieve four key goals, according to Alex Evans, author of a Chatham House research paper on the international implications of rising food prices. 1. First, it must agree action to increase the humanitarian system's capacity to help more people. While the World Food Programme has now raised enough money to cover its immediate funding shortfall, continuing high food prices - coupled with the prospect of other risks including climate change and other 'scarcity trends' - will mean that the world's humanitarian agencies will continue to require higher than normal levels of funding as they scale up their operations. 2. Second, the summit needs to co-ordinate an easing of export restrictions in international grain markets. Recent months have seen 'positive feedbacks' as some food producers have reduced or suspended exports in response to domestic pressures, even as import-dependent countries have attempted to rebuild national food stockpiles. Both sets of measures have increased pressure on prices - a more harmonised approach is needed, to reduce volatility and ease pressure on prices. 3. Third, the summit must launch a strategy to boost agricultural production. As well as increasing overall food supply, the strategy should focus heavily on the needs of smallholder farmers - who account for more than four fifths of farms worldwide, and almost a third of the world's people. While high food prices should benefit them, the opposite has often been the case: many are net purchasers of food, and they have also been hit for rising costs of agricultural inputs such as fertiliser. 4. Finally, the summit needs to initiate work towards an international agreement on biofuels. Some biofuels have the potential to contribute to climate change objectives and benefit poor farmers in the process, but others can be deeply problematic for food security. Poor people and responsible companies alike share a stake in developing international consensus on the standards and safeguards that can ensure biofuels deliver their potential without harming food security for poor people. Alex Evans said: "Next week's UN food summit is a crucial milestone on the way to the G8 in July and the UN Call to Action summit in September. Countries need to agree a mix of immediate actions to tackle the most acute needs - especially increasing humanitarian assistance and agreeing a phase-out of export restrictions on food - while also starting work now on long term needs, especially a global strategy for increasing food supply and working towards an international agreement on biofuels. He added, "As policymakers work towards a 'Green Revolution' for the 21st century, they must ensure that it really is green. While the 20th century Green Revolution delivered extraordinary yield increases, it relied on intensive resource use - especially water, energy and fertiliser. A world of climate change and scarcer water and energy means that this time around, a much more resource-efficient approach is needed - above all in Africa, where farmers are least able to afford expensive inputs and where climate change will hit hardest." Notes to editors: Alex Evans is the author of Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development, a Chatham House briefing paper published in April 2008: {$FULL_DOMAIN}/publications/papers/view/-/id/612/ He is leading a joint project on the international implications of rising food prices being undertaken by Chatham House and CIC, which will culminate in the publication in the summer of a strategic assessment for policymakers of the drivers, implications and policy requirements of rising food prices. He is also working in association with Chatham House's project, UK Food Supply the 21st Century: The New Dynamic. Alex will be in Rome throughout the duration of the UN food summit, and is available for interview (contact details below). Alex Evans is a non-resident fellow at the Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University, where he runs CIC's work on climate change and global public goods. From 2003 to 2006, Alex worked as Special Adviser to Hilary Benn MP, then UK Secretary of State for International Development. Prior to joining DFID in 2003, Alex worked in a range of other climate and energy-focused roles, including as the head of the climate and energy research program of the Institute for Public Policy Research (2002-3), at the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs as a specialist on emissions trading (2002), as communications director at the Global Commons Institute (2000-2) and as a political consultant on climate and energy policy (1998-9). He also co-edits www.GlobalDashboard.org, the global risk and foreign policy blog. For further information please contact: Alex Evans UK Mobile: +44 (0)7958 229 247 Email: alex.evans@nyu.edu Sean Armstrong Press Officer Direct: +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 Mobile: +44 (0) 78 4985 3757 ENDS Thu, 29 May 2008 15:47:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/450/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/450/ With an increasing global population and the economic expansion of developing countries, new patterns of demand for food are being created. The Chatham House Food Project has outlined four scenarios in a new paper for food supply in the 21st century to examine the issues arising. The scenarios, outlined in a new interim briefing paper, Thinking About the Future of Food, are: • Just a Blip - the present high price of food proves to be a brief spike with a return to cheap food at some point soon • Food Inflation - food prices remain high for a decade or more • Into a New Era - today's food system has reached its limits and must change • Food in Crisis - a major world food crisis develops. In the light of the scenarios, the paper also assesses the national and global responses to changes to the supply of food that will be conditioned by uncertainties surrounding the availability of sufficient energy, water, land and skills. These issues will be analyzed thoroughly in a full report which will be published in October. Note to editors:Throughout 2008, Chatham House's work on food supply will be testing the responses of the UK's industry to international developments. Today's report is the result of a first series of interviews and discussions undertaken around Britain's wheat and dairy supply networks. For further information please contact: Sean Armstrong Press Officer Direct: +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 Mobile: +44 (0) 78 4985 3757 More about this project: UK Food Supply in the 21st Century: The New Dynamic ENDS Thu, 29 May 2008 15:36:31 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/449/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/449/ The only way for the UK and other EU countries to help to shape tomorrow's world is to act together within the EU. The EU currently performs inadequately in foreign policy and its arrangements, which developed informally from primitive beginnings, have not been fit for purpose. The changes to be made under the Lisbon Treaty will now give it more effective means to formulate and implement agreed common policies, and will help to generate the necessary political will among member states. The appointment of a new High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (EUHR) who will also be chairman of the Foreign Affairs Council and Vice President (VP) of the European Commission, assisted by the proposed European External Action Service (EAS), planned for 2009, is designed to provide the EU with a more coherent foreign policy authority. A new Chatham House Report, The European External Action Service: Roadmap for Success, sets out ten key policy recommendations that would ensure that the EAS is the most effective possible instrument for its task. Brian Crowe, author of the report and a former adviser to Javier Solana, argues that, although success will depend, above all, on the political will of member states to agree and deliver common policies, the arrangements to formulate the policies, manage the decision-making process and then implement the policies are also crucial to success. However, the Lisbon Treaty gives very little guidance, let alone detail, and leaves plenty of room for inter-institutional friction and wrong turnings. This report seeks to provide a roadmap for the consideration of policy-makers and opinion-formers. Above all, according to Brian Crowe, it is important that member states do not lose sight of the only objective in the Treaty for the EAS: assisting the EUHR/VP in the task of managing the EU's external relations. The full cooperation and support of member states will be needed to achieve this, including secondment of their best diplomats, a high priority to achieving common policies and a willingness to give the High Representative the lead in representing them. The High Representative and the new EAS are 'an opportunity the EU cannot afford to miss', says Brian Crowe. His ten recommendations are: The EUHR/VP must have the authority to fulfil his/her Treaty responsibility of coordinating effectively the external responsibilities of other Commissioners. He/she should have a deputy or deputies covering the whole EAS, i.e. the responsibilities for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and European Commission, including coordination. EU delegations abroad should come under a unified administrative management reporting to the EUHR/VP. The EAS should also support the President of the European Council in respect of his/her foreign policy responsibilities. There should be no alternative and inevitably competing foreign policy bureaucracy. CFSP and Commission business should be handled in an integrated way by EAS geographical desks, which (along with the EAS missions overseas) should be neither in the Council nor the Commission but in a separate Agency. Chairmanship of committees subordinate to the Foreign Affairs Council should be determined pragmatically, but guided where possible by the principle that the chair should be in the hierarchy managing the policy. EU missions abroad should be used actively as the instrument for conducting the EU's business with third countries. Special Representatives will continue to be justified where a more regional approach, including shuttle diplomacy, is needed. The assumption by the EAS and its missions abroad of functions on behalf of member states should be gradual, voluntary and only with the agreement of the EUHR/VP that the EAS's primary function of assisting him/her to run the EU's foreign and security policy is not undermined. Priority should be given to ensuring high-quality staff for the EAS, including first-class secondees from member states. To ensure excellence without fear or favour, an independent panel should provide a short list of candidates from which the EUHR/VP can make final choices. Commission, Council Secretariat and member states should encourage suitable and interested staff to consider secondment to the EAS, often more than once, as career-enhancing. They should release personnel for appropriate training and give priority to getting training programmes going. The EAS will need strong management and a strong manager to assist the EUHR/VP. Notes to editors: The Chatham House Report, The European External Action Service: Roadmap for Success is written by Sir Brian Crowe and published on Tuesday 27 May 2008. Sir Brian Crowe is the Deputy Chairman of Chatham House and a consultant and occasional lecturer, writer and instructor on EU and transatlantic affairs. He worked until 2002 for Javier Solana as Director General for External and Politico-Military Affairs in the EU Council of Ministers. Contact: Sir Brian Crowe Direct: +44 (0)20 7828 6084 Mobile: +44 (0)7847 450770 Sean Armstrong Press Officer Chatham House Direct: +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 Mobile: +44 (0) 78 4985 3757 Email: Sean Armstrong ENDS Fri, 23 May 2008 12:36:41 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/448/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/448/ In this month's The World Today, Robert Falkner exposes the weak regulatory system of nanotechnology in Nanotechnology Dangers: Who's Afraid of Nanotech? In a little-noticed announcement, Britain's Soil Association declared that any foods containing nanotechnology additives can no longer be labeled 'organic'. This is the first ban on nanotechnology of its kind worldwide and comes after scientists are becoming increasingly concerned that nanoscale particles may react in unexpected ways, potentially causing harm to the human body and environment. And yet, few consumers realize that manufactured nanoparticles have been in commercial use for years and can be found in a wide range of products - skincare cream, sports clothing, cooking oil and wall coatings. Regulatory oversight of the new technology is patchy and underdeveloped. As so often in modern industrial history, regulators are struggling to keep up with technological innovation. Scientists were the first to raise concerns about the speed with which nanotechnology products were emerging on the market without adequate guarantees on their safety. Now, the insurance industry has added its voice to the chorus calling for more regulatory oversight. All agree that a wider public debate is needed as well as better government regulatory oversight. Existing environmental and consumer protection is not enough. None of the leading nanotech countries wants to undercut the high growth and innovation potential that nanotechnology presents. But as pressures grow for regulators to act on safety concerns, the search for the right balance between regulatory precaution and technology promotion is bound to become more complicated. More about The World Today >> Full list of contents: Food Prices: Feeding the Ten Billion Alex Evans Asian Rivers - Food and Power: Dams It Is! David Fullbrook Lebanon: Futile Victory Nadim Shehadi Nanotechnology Dangers: Who's Afraid of Nanotech? Robert Falkner G8 Summit and the International Economic Crisis: Shocks, Summits, Solutions DeAnne Julius G8 and Russian Foreign Policy: Overcoming Shortcomings John Lough Japan, Africa and the G8: Beyond Daydreams Elizabeth Donnelly Angola: Fuelling Friendships Indira Campos The British Economy: Bumpy Ride for Britain?Vanessa Rossi Thu, 22 May 2008 13:22:53 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/447/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/447/ This special issue of International Affairs looks at the changing dynamics in the international economic system from an interdisciplinary standpoint, unpacking some of the emerging processes of globalization and investigating the relationship between power and rule-setting. The framing question behind the special issue is how the global order has to change in order to accommodate the enlargement of the playing field and in particular the emergence of fast-growing developing economies. How is this shift going to affect the distribution of power, both among nations and between state and non-state actors? Is this shift going to drive a fundamental rethinking of the rules governing relations between countries - and regions - and institutions? These pertinent questions are explored in this special issue. In his article, Anthony Payne charts the history of the G8, arguing that it came to demonstrate and symbolize the triumph of western capitalist liberal democracy over its rival Soviet system. In that sense the G8 constituted the club of the winners of late twentieth century history. But it has long been beset by problems of legitimacy and efficiency. To achieve its ambitions and meet new challenges the G8 must face up to the new realities of the global political system. It has recognised that it needs to incorporate new powers such as Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa into its affairs. But these countries will have to show that they are willing to work within the framework of western leadership. Only then will the formation of a relevant G13 become a politically realistic possibility. Full list of contents: Introduction: Power and Rules in a Changing Economic Order Paola Subacchi Globalization, empire and natural lawHarold James The case of the World Trade Organization John H. Jackson The international monetary system: Diffusion and ambiguity Benjamin J. Cohen Europe as a global actor: Empire by example? Jan Zielonka New power centres and new power brokers: Are they shaping a new economic order?Paola Subacchi Beyond the Washington Consensus? Asia and Latin America in search of more autonomous development Jean Grugel, Pia Riggirozzi and Ben Thirkell-White The G8 in a changing global economic order Anthony Payne Setting the rules: Private power, political underpinnings, and legitimacy in global monetary and financial governance Geoffrey R D Underhill and Xiaoke Zhang Book Reviews Other Books Received Index of Books Received Thu, 22 May 2008 12:44:28 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/446/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/446/ Both Korea and the EU are aggressively pursuing free trade areas as part of their trade policy strategies, and there are strong incentives on both sides to conclude an agreement. However the EU's approach to rules of origin and its desire for a wide-ranging and highly liberalizing agreement threatens to jeopardise negotiations. Korea and the EU are not principal suppliers to each other, so while an agreement is predicted to be economically favourable to both sides, the effects are not expected to be very large. Korea has the higher barriers and is expected to make the bigger economic gains. There are sensitive sectors on both sides, notably automobiles for the EU and services and processed foods for Korea. Each side also has important agricultural constituencies to protect and Korea's key role in the East Asian production system suggests that rules of origin could be an area of particular difficulty in the negotiations. The slow progress in the negotiations to date suggests that caution predominates and that, despite the potential benefits, agreement might be impossible to find. Click here to read An EU-Korea Free Trade Area: Playing Catch-Up or Taking the Lead? For more information please contact: Sean Armstrong Press Officer Chatham House Direct: +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 Mobile: +44 (0) 78 4985 3757 Email: Sean Armstrong ENDS Thu, 01 May 2008 10:36:43 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/445/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/445/ Alistair Darling, speaking at a Chatham House conference, announced plans for a new business-government working group on tax that would look at the long-term challenges facing the UK tax system and ensure competitiveness remains at the heart of any future reforms. He said that we need to protect revenues in an increasingly global market place whilst at the same time promoting the competitiveness of our businesses. The Chancellor of the Exchequer was speaking at a conference on 'New Financial Frontiers' organized by Chatham House and hosted by Bloomberg. He also said that banks, boards and shareholders need to look at their governance arrangements in light of the recent crises in the financial markets. Mr Darling said that the first line of defence lies with directors and that the search for more and more 'exotic products' is often undertaken without a proper understanding of risk. At the same conference, David Nason, Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions, US Treasury, said that whilst more regulation may go some way to ease disruptions, like the one global financial markets are encountering now, it can't prevent them entirely. He also outlined US Treasury proposals for a 'market stability regulator' to more effectively assess risk and implement action for change. Notes to editors: The Rt Hon Alistair Darling MP, Chancellor of the Exchequer, and David G Nason were the keyote speakers at the conference City Series 2008: The New Financial Frontiers, organized by Chatham House and hosted by Bloomberg. Read speeches here: The Rt Hon Alistar Darling MP David G Nason Contact: Sean Armstrong Press Officer, Chatham House Tel: +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 Mob: +44 (0) 7849 853 757 Email ENDS Tue, 29 Apr 2008 17:01:55 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/444/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/444/ The world's first free trade agreement between customs unions could be finalized this year between the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), says a paper published today by Chatham House. Commentary from the Gulf suggests that the EU practice of including clauses on human rights and environmental regulation has hindered progress on any agreement up to now. But efforts by the European Commission may see the successful conclusion of negotiations in 2008. A free trade agreement is an element in the EU's Global Europe trade policy strategy and is explicitly linked to energy security concerns. The EU is the GCC's main supplier of goods and services, and since the completion of the GCC Customs Union tariffs are low and the economic effects of a free trade agreement are likely to be small, on goods at least. However, economic barriers still exist on both sides to the final signing of an agreement: resistance by GCC states to services and investment liberalization; and resistance in the EU over access for GCC refinery products and chemicals. Click here to read Prospects for an EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Free Trade Area: The World's First Region-to-Region FTA? For more information please contact: Sean Armstrong Press Officer Chatham House Direct: +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 Mobile: +44 (0) 78 4985 3757 Email: Sean Armstrong ENDS Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:22:35 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/443/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/443/ A revolution in agriculture will be needed to meet a projected 50 per cent increase in demand for food by 2030, says a new briefing paper published today by Chatham House. Further, the question of 'fair shares' is likely to emerge as a significant global issue as a burgeoning 'global middle class' consumes more grain by eating more meat and dairy products. Crucially, this process will take staple foods out of the purchasing power reach of the world's poorest people. Recent national concerns over soaring prices have already led some countries to reduce exports and others to try to build up stocks - creating a 'feedback loop' that is feeding on itself to drive up prices still further. In the medium to longer term, 'scarcity trends' - climate change, energy, land and water - could further limit the supply-side response. The paper, Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development by Alex Evans, argues that it is vital to make sure that the urgent does not crowd out the essential in discussions of global food strategies. Immediate action on humanitarian assistance needs to be matched by a sustained effort to invest in shared awareness between policymakers of what needs to be done to achieve 'the feeding of the ten billion'. Alex Evans said: 'While the current focus on humanitarian aid is welcome, we need to be thinking now about the long term too - especially how to grow food supply and make sure that the process benefits rural poor people. What we're seeing now is just the start of a multi-decade challenge: feeding a global population set to approach ten billion by 2050, in the face of climate change, tighter energy supply, and growing competition for land and water resources.' He added: 'How we frame and perceive the issue matters enormously. If the prevailing narrative is a Malthusian story of insufficiency, then the risk is of self-fulfilling prophecy - if for example fears that there isn't enough to go around lead to countries panic-buying food for stockpiles, pushing prices up even more. Instead, we need to see this as a transition to a new, stable state of affairs. Feeding a world population of ten billion people in 2050 won't be easy, but it can be done with forethought, collective action and if we don't panic.' Notes to editors: Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development by Alex Evans is published today by Chatham House. Alex Evans is a non-resident fellow at the Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University, where he runs CIC's work on climate change and global public goods. From 2003 to 2006, Alex worked as Special Adviser to Hilary Benn MP, then UK Secretary of State for International Development. Prior to joining DFID in 2003, Alex worked in a range of other climate and energy-focused roles, including as the head of the climate and energy research program of the Institute for Public Policy Research (2002-3), at the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs as a specialist on emissions trading (2002), as communications director at the Global Commons Institute (2000-2) and as a political consultant on climate and energy policy (1998-9). He also co-edits www.GlobalDashboard.org, the global risk and foreign policy blog. The paper is published as part of a joint project on the international implications of rising food prices being undertaken by Chatham House and CIC, which will culminate in the publication in the summer of a strategic assessment for policymakers of the drivers, implications and policy requirements of rising food prices. www.chathamhouse.org.uk/research/global_trends For interview bids please contact: Alex Evans UK Mobile: +44 (0)7958 229 247 Email: alex.evans@nyu.edu Sean Armstrong Press Officer Chatham House Direct: +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 Mobile: +44 (0) 78 4985 3757 Email: Sean Armstrong ENDS Tue, 22 Apr 2008 11:07:56 +0100