http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/rss/5 This feed contains all new press releases added to the Chatham House website. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/643/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/643/ Iran's elections were a monumental miscalculation and now the Islamic Republic faces the most serious crisis of authority in a generation, writes Ali Ansari in this month's The World Today. Hard liners may have overreached in their quest for democratic approval. On climate change, Bernice Lee and Antony Froggatt write that the international community is not doing enough to deviate from 'business as usual' in tackling greenhouse gas emissions. Politics is trumping science as national interests come before a concerted global effort to do something about emissions. Economist Max Watson outlines a programme of action for the Euro area where policy often lags behind events. He argues that the Euro area cannot afford to wait and see what strains emerge over the medium term; it needs stronger policy coordination now. Full contents Iran Elections: Monumental Miscalculation, Ali Ansari Democracy: Dicing With Democracy, Richard Youngs Democracy: The Quiet Democrat, Nicolas Bouchet Engaging Iran - European Lessons for America: Tempting Tehran, Riccardo Alcaro Burma: All Change or No Change?, Richard Horsey Burma: Trust the People, Maung Zarni Climate Change Politics: Dangerous Game of Dare, Bernice Lee and Antony Froggatt Russia: Strategic Loneliness, Vadim Kononenko Central Asia: Power Plays, Graeme P Hern and Katva Palazzolo Mexico - Swine Flu: Victor or Victim?, Rodrigo Delgado Aguilera The Euro and the Global Financial Crisis: Surviving Strain, Max Watson Thu, 25 Jun 2009 15:49:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/641/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/641/ There is an urgent need for progress at the G8 on a number of key items that were not adequately addressed at the London G20 Summit, says this new briefing paper. Issues such as toxic assets, reform of economic governance and strong legal measures to counter protectionism were not resolved. The G8 agenda is much broader and includes a wider variety of issues - such as development, security, Africa or climate change - but there is a real need to continue to push for progress on the economic front, particularly since it seems that many G20 members have gone off and 'done their own thing' since April. Now that IMF resources have been increased, the priority should be reform of IMF governance. Discussing the EU representation within the IMF is politically difficult, but it cannot be avoided for much longer. Europe should show leadership and be the 'first mover', rather than be eventually forced to confront the question of IMF governance. It would be relatively easier for the Italians to raise the issue, given that Italy does not have a seat on the IMF's board. The Italian presidency should promote the idea of a single EU constituency. But most of all, it should seize the opportunity to link major economic discussions between the G8 leaders and key partners among developing countries, indicating that action is needed in the short term and ensuring clarity for the G20 agenda for Pittsburgh in September 2009. What is at stake is Europe's relevance at the international level. This is especially critical in view of the increasingly intense US-China dialogue. Europe's 'big four' (UK, Germany, France, Italy) therefore have a responsibility as well as the interest to bring up such a dialogue and move it forward. Notes to Editors From London to L'Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8 Chatham House and CIGI Briefing Paper, Paola Subacchi and Eric Helleiner, June 2009 Event: The G20-G8 Continuum: Global Governance in a World of Crisis Monday 6 July 2009, held in Rome. Chatham House and CIGI are jointly launching a blog to track the G8. Read >>Read more on Crisis and Reform of the International Financial Architecture >> The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) is an independent, nonpartisan think-tank that addresses international governance challenges. Contact Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager +44 (0)20 7957 5739 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 10:34:44 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/630/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/630/ A survey of Iran's election results, published today by Chatham House and the University of St Andrews, raises serious questions about the plausibility of the claimed victory and demonstrates irregularities in the official results. Even the official statistics - obtained from the Ministry of the Interior - indicate that: votes cast exceeded the number of eligible voters in two provinces claims that Ahmadinejad swept the board in rural provinces flies in the face of previous results The plausibility of Mr Ahmadinejad's claimed victory is called into question by figures that show that in several provinces he would have had to attract the votes of all new voters, all the votes of his former centrist opponent, and up to 44% of those who voted for reformist candidates in 2005. Irregularities are found in conservative Mazandaran and Yazd provinces where votes cast exceeded the number of eligible voters. Professor Ali Ansari said: 'The analysis shows that the scale of the swing to Ahmadinejad would have had to have been extraordinary to achieve the stated result'. Thomas Rintoul said: 'The claimed results in minority provinces are particularity extreme, the numbers from Ilam, Lorestan and Hormozegan almost defy belief'. Read paper >> Details Preliminary Analysis of the Voting Figures in Iran's 2009 Presidential Election Paper published by Chatham House and the Institute of Iranian Studies, University of St Andrews. Editor: Professor Ali Ansari, Director, Institute of Iranian Studies, University of St Andrews; Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House. Research and analysis: Daniel Berman and Thomas Rintoul, Institute of Iranian Studies, University of St Andrews. Contact For press commentary: Professor Ali AnsariInstitute of Iranian Studies, University of St Andrews/Chatham House, and author of 'Iran, Islam and Democracy: The Politics of Managing Change'. +44 (0)7595 393 785 Thomas Rintoul Institute of Iranian Studies, University of St Andrews +44 (0)7590 364 630 Press Office: Keith Burnet Communciations Director, Chatham House +44 (0)20 7314 2798 / +44 (0)7714 200 920 Sara Karnas Press Office, Chatham House +44 (0)20 7314 2787 / +44 (0)7958 669 785 ENDS Sun, 21 Jun 2009 14:10:24 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/624/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/624/ Ginny Hill, author of the Chatham House paper Yemen: Fear of Failure says: 'Al-Qaeda and its affiliates in Yemen have been responsible for the deaths of 14 tourists in the last two years. Spanish, Belgian and South Korean nationals have died in suicide attacks and gunfire on tourist groups. But the calculated execution of captive hostages would represent a new and chilling tactic, and confirm fears that al-Qaeda's capacity and ambition in Yemen are increasing. Nine foreigners were abducted at the weekend in a remote mountainous area near to the Saudi border. Since 2004, the Saada region has endured sporadic civil war between Yemeni security forces and local rebels, and media access is tightly restricted. We still don't have a reliable picture about the fate of the hostages. If any of the hostages has been executed, as several reports now suggest, if would mark a new phase in the pattern of violence towards foreigners. Local rebels in the Saada region have not taken foreign hostages before, and they deny any involvement in the kidnapping. Yemeni tribes have a long history of kidnapping foreigners to extract concessions from the central government - but these 'bargaining chips' are almost always released unharmed. Al-Qaeda and its affiliates in Yemen have been responsible for the deaths of 14 tourists in the last two years. Spanish, Belgian and South Korean nationals have died in suicide attacks and gunfire on tourist groups. But the calculated execution of captive hostages would represent a new and chilling tactic, and confirm fears that al-Qaeda's capacity and ambition in Yemen are increasing.' Notes to Editors: Read Yemen: Fear of Failure >> Ginny Hill is available for comment: Ginny Hill, +44 (0)7779 790 356 ginny.uk@gmail.com Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager, +44 20 7957 5739 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 10:09:56 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/620/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/620/ In a major key note speech aimed at people across Africa, Lord Malloch-Brown, Minister for Africa, called for an 'Africa first' policy to counter the growing threats from global recession, and increase Africa's influence in global affairs. Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, formerly a United Nations Deputy Secretary General, warned that the continent of Africa 'is in trouble' because of the world economic crisis but with an 'Africa first' approach to regional markets, infrastructure and institutions, 'African lions' may emerge from the financial recession with an ever greater voice in global discussions, including on the UN Security Council. He told the audience in Maputo, Mozambique on Tuesday 9 June, that aid, trade and investment are all needed in Africa, but that African governments should use the financial crisis as an opportunity to speed up the process of regional integration across the continent. Declining investment, slow growth and high job losses mean that ordinary people are suffering, he said, and there are signs that the economic storm 'may yet whip up its political counterparts across Africa'. He pointed to the fragile political situations in Kenya, Southern Sudan and the DRC, as well as the recent coups in Madagascar, Mauritania, Guinea and Guinea Bissau as examples of this. Lord Malloch-Brown also pointed out the economic problems Uganda had recently faced from the political turmoil in Kenya, as a good example of how problems in one country can affect other parts of the continent. Lord Malloch-Brown pointed out that in a recent survey nine out of ten Africans said they wanted to live in a democracy and that voter turnout is far higher in African countries than in the UK. He praised the African Union, regional organizations and African leaders who have used their influence across the continent to resolve conflict, and urged them to continue their efforts for the common good. African regional initiatives to uphold justice and reconciliation were also praised. Lord Malloch-Brown said he rejected the 'rhetoric of neo-colonial conspiracy', pointing out that the International Criminal Court had been ratified by thirty African countries with cases referred to it by the governments of the DRC, Central African Republic and Uganda. 'African institutions of justice must come first with the international courts as a last resort', he said. However, he said that it is equally important to beat the current global crisis by speeding up the positive economic reforms that have been sweeping the continent in recent years and led to growth rates of up to 10% prior to the world financial crisis. This means opening up regional markets, as the Southern African Development Community have done and the Economic Community of West African States is doing through the planned introduction of a single currency. It also means further regional cooperation on infrastructure such as the British supported North-South Corridor through southern and eastern Africa. He concluded his speech by urging the adoption of an 'Africa first' policy to implement the kind of markets, infrastructure and institutions that will make a real difference to sustainable growth and development across the continent. By doing so, not just Africa, but the international community as a whole will benefit from Africa's increased influence in global discussions. Full transcript and audio available>> NOTES TO EDITORS Lord Malloch-Brown was speaking at an event in Mozambique which was co-hosted by Chatham House and the Instituto Superior de Relações Internacionais (ISRI). Event details >> More information on the work of the Africa Programme >> For more details contact Tom Cargill, Assistant Head, Africa Programme - +44 (0) 207 957 5718. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 15:14:23 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/617/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/617/ A new European Security and Defence Forum based at Chatham House, in partnership with Finmeccanica and with the support of the Italian Istituto Affari Internazionali, has been launched to analyze political and strategic developments in Europe. The Forum will examine what the implications might be for the European Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy and European Security Strategy, and for the entire European defence industry. The Forum will also assess the prospects for NATO and the transatlantic security relationship, and will look more broadly at key international security challenges. The Forum will hold a series of events including workshops and an annual conference and it will publish a series of occasional briefing papers as well as an annual publication to be known as the Carrington Papers. A Steering Committee has been established to provide guidance and advice on the main issues and to review the progress of the Forum. The work and activities of the Forum will be organized by the International Security Programme at Chatham House. The Programme is headed by Dr Paul Cornish, Head, International Security Programme and Carrington Chair in International Security. Dr Paul Cornish said: 'The European Security and Defence Forum will analyze the shifts and developments in European security and defence policies and will allow us to offer a better understanding of Europe's strategic relationship with the United States.' Sir Kevin Tebbit, Chairman of Finmeccanica UK, said: 'As a multinational company, providing defence and security solutions on a global scale, we have vital interest in the policy analysis and development that will help governments and public bodies to chart a safe course through today's rapidly changing international security environment. We feel honoured to be able to contribute through this association with one of the world's foremost policy institutes.' The first event organized by the Forum is due to take place this summer and the first annual conference will take place at the beginning of 2010. Notes to Editors: Funding for the Forum is underpinned by Finmeccanica, the leading Italian industrial group operating globally in the aerospace, defence and security sectors. More information: More information about the European Security and Defence Forum >> If you would like to receive updates from the International Security Programme, please contact Molly Tarhuni. For press enquiries please contact Nicola Norton. ENDS Fri, 05 Jun 2009 16:16:38 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/606/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/606/ In this month's issue, Dr David Heymann, Head of Chatham House's new Centre on Global Health Security, and formerly Assistant Director-General at the World Health Organization, traces the means of managing the risks of influenza and outlines today's challenges for practitioners to identify emerging infections such as swine flu. Prem Shankar Jha, columnist and former editor, The Hindustan Times, argues that the Obama administration must understand that there will be no peace settlement in Afghanistan if India is left out of the process. And Kerry Brown, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House, writes on how China is rising again but faces a major task in communicating what it calls its 'benign objectives and intentions' to the rest of the world. Full list of contents: Afghanistan and Pakistan: Obama's Quagmire, Prem Shankar Jha Afghanistan and Pakistan: Taliban Toxin, Wolfgang Danspeckgruber and William Maley Health: Preparing for Pandemics, David L Heymann Health - China and Russia: Life Support, Christopher Davis Group of Eight - Aid in Africa: Party Over, Tom Cargill Group of Eight: Thinking, Not Talking, Alex Vines China: Rising Again, Kerry Brown Coal and Climate Change: Electrifying Issue, Michael Hogan Coal and Climate Change: Between a Rock and a Hard Place, Jon Gibbins Europe: Jobs for the Boys, Richard Whitman Thu, 21 May 2009 15:51:04 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/587/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/587/ Ten years after the Kosovo War, this special issue of International Affairs looks at the significance of the war. The featured articles suggest that the Kosovo war had implications that went beyond the circumstances of its launch and conclusion. Over Kosovo, NATO's credibility was put on the line and its viability as a worthwhile security provider was questioned - just as it was in Bosnia and now in Afghanistan. In 'NATO: From Kosovo to Kabul', James Sperling and Mark Webber argue, while the crises (both internal and external) which NATO has faced are real, the assumption need not follow that the alliance is facing inexorable decline. Whatever the merits of the actions it has undertaken, NATO has proved robust and responsive. The alliance remains a framework of choice for its members - after initially rejecting the prospect of NATO oversight in Afghanistan, the Bush administration recognized that in doing so the high costs of operational incoherence and inefficiency far exceeded any potential gain of operational freedom. The Obama administration has staked its foreign policy reputation on addressing the Afghan imbroglio. Here, NATO is seen as central. Sperling and Webber write that despite fundamental disagreements besetting the alliance, the Afghan experience can be read as yet another instance of crisis as normality. Claims of a transatlantic gap of burden-sharing in Afghanistan are exaggerated. Based on three tables that look in detail at NATO members' contributions, the article shows that NATO European and NATO US contributions to allied operations are roughly proportionate, but the same cannot be said of intra-European burden-sharing, risk-sharing, and financial support. Like Bosnia and Kosovo before it, Afghanistan is but the latest episode in which NATO is seen to be facing its darkest hour. But NATO's fortunes rest on more than simply the outcome of a single (if vital) mission. The challenges NATO faces, especially now in Afghanistan, should be seen contextually, as part of the seemingly endless, but often exaggerated, narrative of NATO failure and decline. Read 'NATO: From Kosovo to Kabul' >> International Affairs 85/3 - Contents The Kosovo War: A Recapitulation, Mark Webber Operation Allied Force: Handmaiden of Independent Kosovo, Julie A Mertus The Influence of Operation Allied Force on the Development of Jus ad Bellum, Steven Haines NATO: From Kosovo to Kabul, James Sperling And Mark Webber 'A Milestone in the History of the EU': Kosovo and the EU's International Role, Alistair J K Shepherd Innovation and Precedent in the Kosovo War: The Impact of Operation Allied Force on US Foreign Policy, David Hastings Dunn 'Tony's War'? Blair, Kosovo and the Interventionist Impulse in British Foreign Policy, Oliver Daddow Falling into Line? Kosovo and the Course of German Foreign Policy, Alister Miskimmon From Pristina to Tskhinvali: The Legacy of Operation Allied Force in Russia's Relations with the West, Derek Averre The Kosovo War in Perspective, Andrew Cottey Book Reviews Fri, 01 May 2009 09:48:18 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/580/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/580/ Climate of Change? Ahead of the Copenhagen summit in December, this month's The World Today looks at how China, Russia and Brazil are preparing for a post-Kyoto climate change agreement. Linda Jakobson, Senior Researcher, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, writes on the delicate balancing act the Chinese government are pursuing: while some Chinese leaders are adamant that combating climate change must not deter economic development, they are also keen to show they are willing to shoulder international responsibilities in line with the status of a rising power. However, the view that China is a victim of climate change, rather than a country to be held responsible for it, is shared across the party. Looking ahead to Iran's presidential elections, Ali Ansari, Associate Fellow, writes that the faltering economy will be a key issue, but with political comebacks beckoning and harsh criticisms of Ahmadinejad by potential candidates rife, one thing stands out: everyone is arguing about the need for change. And, Tony Elumelu, Chief Executive, United Bank for Africa, writes on how in a world of largely negative economic growth, African stocks and shares are showing strong results. But Africa needs to get the message across that it is a continent of growing economies, with institutions and entrepreneurs willing to play important roles in providing solutions to the economic crisis. Full list of contents: Climate Change: China's Changing Climate, Linda Jakobson Russia and Climate Change: Costs or Benefits?, Anna Korppoo Brazil and Climate Change: Global Positioning, Paulo Wrobel Moldova: Question of Power, James Sherr Global Economc Crisis: Crunching Eastern Europe, Sean Hanley European Elections: Big Yawn, or Wake-Up Call?, Julie Smith Europe's Eastern Partnership: Between Europe and Russia, Georgy Bovt Council of Europe: Conscience of a Continent, Martyn Bond The Global Economic Crisis and Africa, Tony Elumelu Iranian Presidential Elections: Ghost at the Election Banquet, Ali Ansari Lebanon Elections: Into the Shadows, Hussain Abdul-Hussain Thu, 23 Apr 2009 12:23:36 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/575/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/575/ Today, navies from at least 17 states are patrolling Somalia's seas and have had some success in their primary aim of disrupting pirate activity. The 'success' rate of pirate attacks has dropped from around 1 in 3 to around 1 in 4 and captured pirates are currently standing trial in France, the Netherlands, Kenya and Puntland says a new Chatham House paper, Pirates and How to Deal With Them. However, the problem of piracy will remain until a long-term solution is found to Somalia's position as a failed state. At present, within the shipping industry there is a perception that international law leaves navies weak and unable to combat piracy. There is a well-founded concern that this perception is also shared by pirates themselves. This paper suggests that this perception is not necessarily correct and that navies have sufficient powers under current international law to combat many of the recent instances of piracy. However, the paper concludes that naval or police action alone cannot provide a long-term solution to Somali piracy. The issue is likely to continue to be a major problem for the foreseeable future and only addressing the root causes, including the internal problems of Somalia, will offer a way to end piracy. Notes to Editors Read Pirates and How to Deal With Them >> This briefing note draws on a meeting of a roundtable of experts held at Chatham House on 26 February 2009 by the Africa Programme and the International Law Discussion Group. It brought together lawyers and practitioners from the military, industry and diplomatic services to clarify some of the legal concerns around combating piracy off the Somali coast. The paper draws on presentations by Agustin Blanco-Bazan of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Commodore Neil Brown of the Royal Navy and Dr Douglas Guilfoyle from University College London, and on the discussion that followed. The meeting was chaired by Elizabeth Wilmshurst of Chatham House. Roger Middleton, author of the paper, is available for interview. He is also the author of Piracy in Somalia: Threatening Global Trade, Feeding Local Wars. Contact Roger: +44 (0)78 8692 7694 For all other media enquiries, please contact the Press Office: +44 (0)20 7957 5739 pressoffice@chathamhouse.org.uk More about the Horn of Africa project >> Tue, 21 Apr 2009 16:52:38 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/546/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/546/ Prime Minister Gordon Brown should offer to give up Britain's single seat on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the London summit as part of a fundamental consolidation of European representation on the Fund. By making this radical offer, Britain would demonstrate strong leadership on the need to reform the governance of the international financial system. It would also serve as a critical signal for immediate action by the G20 leaders to kick-start the world economy and make this summit a success. This is one of the recommendations contained in a new report, New Ideas for the London Summit: Recommendations to the G20 Leaders. The report is a joint partnership between Chatham House and The Atlantic Council of the United States which seeks to build transatlantic consensus on the summit agenda. Its recommendations are drawn from 20 papers by European and American specialists. Its overall conclusion is that G20 leaders should commit to two sets of actions at the London summit - those that will have an immediate effect on stemming the global financial and economic crisis and those that will have a longer-term structural impact. Key recommendations include: Actions for immediate impact to deal with the crisis First, rather than recommending one-size-fits-all fiscal stimulus packages, G20 leaders need to agree on how they will share the burden of the stimulus. Each national plan must be cast in a credible medium-term framework as well as having an immediate impact. Second, the US and other G20 leaders need to follow the example of Japan and the EU and provide credit lines that will immediately increase IMF lending facilities to help the most vulnerable countries deal with the crisis. Third, reject all forms of protectionism by committing to a twelve-month freeze on new protectionist measures, including those that are WTO-legal. Actions for medium and long-term impact Fourth, strengthen the international financial and regulatory architecture by agreeing to improve supervision and rules for all financial institutions and instruments, including credit derivatives and other structured investment vehicles. This regulation must be appropriate and correctly targeted. Fifth, a major increase in the IMF's financing capacity is necessary, and must be accompanied by reform of the IMF's governance to increase the voting weight and representation of emerging economies. Sixth, in order to address long-term economic imbalances, set up a 'caucus on currency misalignments' within the G20 that would include China, Japan, the euro-zone and the US, with two rotating seats for G20 countries with the largest accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. NOTES TO EDITORS Read New Ideas for the London Summit: Recommendations to the G20 Leaders >> Read Executive Summary >> EVENT Wednesday 1 April 2009 09:30 to 11:00 The London Summit: Multiple Perspectives on the G20 Dr Youssef Boutros-Ghali, Minister of Finance, Egypt; Chairman, International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) Lord Malloch-Brown, Prime Minister's Special Envoy for the G20 London Summit Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia Dr Paola Subacchi, Research Director, International Economics, Chatham House Chair: Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House For media enquiries, please contact Nicola Norton: +44 (0)20 7957 5739 +44 (0)79 1775 7528 ENDS Thu, 26 Mar 2009 17:21:31 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/544/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/544/ Serious and organized criminal misuse of the information and communications technology structure (ICT) is increasing, and with considerable cost to the global economy. In the UK in 2007 and 2008, approximately 830,000 businesses experienced an online or computer related security incident. In 2007, some 40 per cent of personal identity fraud took place online, amounting to some 84,700 cases. Further, it is estimated that some 255,800 cases of online financial fraud took place in the UK in 2007 with losses amounting to £535 million. A new Chatham House report, Cyberspace and the National Security of the United Kingdom, examines four key threats: Serious and Organized Crime; State-Sponsored Cyberattacks, Ideological and Political Extremism and Lower-level/individual crime. These threats present a broad range of often inter-connected hazards with which security policy-makers must contend. Terrorists and other extremists might also be attracted to a system which is relatively cost free, and where the investments necessary to develop and maintain the global communications infrastructure have already been made - ironically by their enemies. For serious criminal groups, such as the Asian triads, the Japanese Yakuza and Eastern European organizations, cyberspace offers new opportunities to acquire vast wealth very quickly from activities including money-laundering, extortion and credit card and ATM fraud. The report also states that cyberwarfare will become an increasingly important feature of conflict between states in years to come. A large-scale cyber attack against the US, for example, could have devastating effect: if power and other services could be shut down for a period of three months the damage could be equivalent to '40 or 50 hurricanes striking all at once.' Cybersecurity is a problem which concerns all of society, particularly as we become ever more dependent on the global ICT. With dependence comes exposure and vulnerability to those who use ICT in order to exploit and gain from society's vulnerabilities. A new approach to cybersecurity will be required, and should focus on winning and maintaining the initiative by turning cyberspace into a self-governing network. NOTES TO EDITORS Cyberspace and the National Security of the United Kingdom: Threats and Responses by Paul Cornish, Rex Hughes and David Livingstone. For interview bids and media enquiries, please contact Nicola Norton: +44 (0)20 7957 5739 +44 (0)79 1775 7528 nnorton@chathamhouse.org.uk ENDS Wed, 25 Mar 2009 15:31:11 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/541/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/541/ Human rights abuses on a massive scale continue to afflict the lives of millions of people across the continent of Africa. As in other parts of the world, the obstacles in pursuing justice are currently insurmountable for most victims. Against this backdrop, a new pan-African human rights court is about to open for business. The advent of the African Court on Human and Peoples' Rights marks the third instalment in efforts since the Second World War to create regional human rights courts. This new Court will have broad powers to enforce socio-economic rights and the collective rights of peoples. A new Chatham House briefing paper, Africa's New Human Rights Court: Whistling in the Wind? by Sonya Sceats aims to introduce the Court to a wider audience and explore the opportunities and many challenges it faces. Notes to Editors Africa's New Human Rights Court: Whistling in the Wind? Sonya Sceats, Associate Fellow, International Law, is available for interview. For interview bids and media enquiries, please contact Nicola Norton: +44 (0)20 7957 5739 +44 (0)79 1775 7528 nnorton@chathamhouse.org.uk ENDS Fri, 20 Mar 2009 17:33:32 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/533/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/533/ Chatham House today formally launched its Centre on Global Health Security and announced that Dr David Heymann will head the Centre. Dr Heymann will join Chatham House in April from his current position with the World Health Organization. The Centre on Global Health Security will draw on Chatham House's expertise and international networks in foreign policy and international affairs to broaden the debate over global health. It key aims will be to conduct research, host events and develop new policy initiatives and best practices. These activities reflect the growing need for close co-operation on global health goals across government departments, international institutions, civil society and the private sector. Dr David Heymann said: 'I am pleased that I will be working with Chatham House on this important project. Our new Centre on Global Health Security will explore the links between the broad, but universal goals of improving and strengthening health worldwide and raising levels of overall international security and prosperity.' The announcement was made at Chatham House's conference on 'Rethinking Global Health: Political and practical challenges from foreign and security policy' where Lord Malloch-Brown welcomed the new Centre saying that its work would be 'very important' and that the government has already started to 'join up international health strategy' across Whitehall. The Foreign Office Minister added that the imbalance in health provision between countries contributes to security threats to all of us. Notes to Editors: Read more about Chatham House's Centre on Global Health Security. Dr David Heymann is the World Health Organization's Assistant Director-General for Health Security and Environment and Representative of the Director-General for Polio Eradication. Prior to this, from July 1998 until July 2003, Dr Heymann was Executive Director of the WHO Communicable Diseases Cluster. From October 1995 to July 1998, Dr Heymann was Director of the WHO Programme on Emerging and other Communicable Diseases, and prior to that he was the chief of research activities in the WHO Global Programme on AIDS. Before joining WHO, Dr Heymann worked for 13 years as a medical epidemiologist in sub-Saharan Africa on assignment from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Dr Heymann also worked for two years in India as a medical epidemiologist in the WHO Smallpox Eradication Programme. Tue, 10 Mar 2009 16:41:07 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/526/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/526/ Events between Russia and Ukraine at the start of 2009 and Russia and Georgia in 2008 have brought transit pipelines back into the media spotlight. Despite the slowing of energy demand growth in the current recession, there can be little doubt that more energy will be needed. More oil and gas reserves are being discovered but they are in fields further away from markets, often in land-locked areas, precluding access to the high seas. There will thus be an increasing need for and dependence upon transit pipelines. However, such pipelines are inherently unstable, not just because of bad political relations between neighbours, but also owing to commercial disputes over the 'transit terms' - tariffs and offtake agreements that reward the transit countries. These economic disputes, no less than political disagreements, often result in the cessation of throughput, sometimes for a short period and sometimes for longer. A new Chatham House report, Transit Troubles: Pipelines as a Source of Conflict, by Paul Stevens, addresses three key questions: Why will oil and gas transit pipelines become more important to global energy markets in the future? Why has the history of such pipelines been littered with conflict between the various parties? What might be done to improve this record in the future and make transit pipelines less troublesome? Currently there is no objective, reasonable or fair way of setting 'transit terms'. The report concludes that the only practical solution which offers a serious possibility of reducing conflict is to introduce 'progressive' terms to existing and new transit agreements. NOTES TO EDITORS Read Transit Troubles: Pipelines as a Source of Conflict >> Paul Stevens is Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Development Programme. For media enquiries please contact: Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager +44 (0)20 7957 5739 +44 (0)79 1775 7528 ENDS Thu, 05 Mar 2009 15:54:21 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/521/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/521/ Japan's economy has suffered exceptional damage because of its high level of exposure to the massive downturn in world trade and investment, notably impacting on demand for cars, consumer electronics and investment equipment. The depth of Japan's recession looks set to be far worse than that of the US and the EU. However, the recession has also radically reshaped the global financial environment in ways that suggest unexpected opportunities for Japanese financial institutions and markets. One example of this has been the acquisition by Nomura of parts of Lehman Brothers' operations. Another is the drop in global interest rates - we are all Japan now. A new Chatham House report, The Outlook for Tokyo: New Opportunities or Long-term Decline for Japan's Financial Sector? reviews the outlook for Tokyo as a financial centre and the role of Japan's financial sector in the light of domestic targets as well as international trends and competition. Vanessa Rossi, the report's author, says: 'Japan's financial institutions should look to expand abroad even in the midst of the current exceptional global financial crisis. The Japanese corporate sector succeeded in doing exactly this during past global recessions.' Tokyo is an important player in the global financial system but it is neither a fully developed global financial centre on a par with New York or London, nor a key hub for emerging Asia like Hong Kong and Singapore. But it has to perform a key role as the intermediary between Japanese savers and the financing needs of the government and corporate sector. To do this, it needs to look for an international solution to the asset class imbalance in Japan's domestic markets. To ensure that it can continue to perform its intermediary role in the light of the global crisis and expected trends in markets, Japan should carefully appraise its international strategy. Its major financial institutions need to take rapid and strategic action. NOTES TO EDITORS Read the report: The Outlook for Tokyo: New Opportunities or Long-term Decline for Japan's Financial Sector? Vanessa Rossi is a Senior Research Fellow on the International Economics Programme. For media enquiries please contact: Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager +44 (0)20 7957 5739 +44 (0)79 1775 7528 ENDS Tue, 03 Mar 2009 15:27:07 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/515/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/515/ We are pleased to announce the nominees for the 2009 Chatham House Prize. The nominees are: Prince Saud Al-Faisal Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, President of Liberia HE Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President of Brazil The Chatham House Prize is awarded to the statesperson deemed to have made the most significant contribution to the improvement of international relations in the previous year. The winner will be announced later this year and will be presented with the crystal award. The award ceremony will take place in the autumn at a City of London venue. More about the nominees >> About the Chatham House Prize The selection process for the nominees draws on the expertise of Chatham House's research teams and three presidents - Lord Ashdown, Lord Hurd and Lord Robertson. Our members are then invited to vote for the winner in a ballot. The winner will be announced later this year. The winner is presented with a crystal award and a scroll signed by our Patron, Her Majesty The Queen at an award ceremony in the City of London in early autumn, with keynote speeches by leading figures in international affairs. Previous winners include: President John Kufuor of Ghana (2008), HH Sheikha Mozah, Chairperson, Qatar Foundation (2007), HE Joaquim Chissano, former President of Mozambique (2006) and HE President Victor Yushchenko of Ukraine (2005). More about the Prize and previous winners >> Contact Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager +44 (0)20 7957 5739 +44 (0)79 1775 7528 nnorton@chathamhouse.org.uk Fri, 27 Feb 2009 15:45:36 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/509/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/509/ A major new Chatham House report, drawing on our international expertise and contacts, offers an in-depth analysis of the Obama administration's ambitions to renew US leadership in the world. One month into Barack Obama's presidency, Chatham House is publishing a major new report, Ready to Lead? Rethinking America's Role in a Changed World. It explores how the Obama administration can promote US global leadership at a time when many of the pillars of its international role have been weakened. The report concludes that America must change the way it uses its power. The spread of democracy that US governments have championed over recent decades - and that reinforces its claim to international leadership - has stalled. The invasion of Iraq in 2003 has left the US directly entangled in the instability of Middle East rather than an external contributor to its security. Further, China and the EU are challenging US leadership regionally and on global issues such as climate change and international financial coordination. Dr Robin Niblett, Director of Chatham House and the report's author, says: 'In just four weeks, President Obama has moved rapidly to address questions about the legitimacy and the future direction of American foreign policy. However, restoring America's leadership role will be far more difficult.' This report looks at how the US will need to craft new ways of using its unique power and capacity to influence others. Its key conclusions are as follows: America needs to change how it uses its power by sharing leadership where partners have as much - or more - to offer.President Obama has promised to strengthen multilateral cooperation. He can do so if he chooses to share leadership in certain areas, such as tackling climate change and the global financial crisis, or even serve as one among equals in others. The US needs to focus less on its 'opponents' and more on supporting its friends and allies in Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Asia. The actions of many of America's principal competitors or opponents, such as Russia and Iran, are driven by internal political calculations over which current US policy has little or no influence. By focussing more on how it supports its allies, America will play to its strengths. America needs to place less emphasis on individual leaders and parties and more on governance and political processes.From the Clinton administration's relationship with Boris Yeltsin and Hosni Mubarak to the Bush administration's support for Pervez Musharraf or Ahmed Chalabi, successive US administrations have over-emphasized relationships with particular individuals. President Obama should not recreate the same reliance on personal relationships which blighted parts of the Bush administration's foreign policy. Notes to Editors Read the report: Ready to Lead? Rethinking America's Role in a Changed World >> More information on Chatham House project, Rethinking America's International Role >> Dr Robin Niblett is available for interview. For media enquiries please contact the Press Office: +44 (0)20 7957 5739 pressoffice@chathamhouse.org.uk Keith Burnet +44 (0)20 7314 2798 +44 (0)7714 200 920 ENDS Fri, 20 Feb 2009 09:53:24 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/508/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/508/ A new paper, Cyber-Security and Politically, Socially and Religiously Motivated Cyber-Attacks, focuses on the European Union as an international organization with a fragmented but developing interest in cyber-security. The paper examines the source and nature of cyber threats; reviews the current multilateral initiatives to address security issues; and examines the EU's response to the cyber-security challenge. Dr Paul Cornish, author of the paper, concludes that the EU faces a broad range of cyber-threats including hacking, serious and organized crime, ideological and political extremism, and state-sponsored cyber-aggression. Although these threats do not constitute a vast cyber-conspiracy against the EU, there is no doubt that the EU is challenged comprehensively, even systematically, by this range of threats. The paper recommends that the European Union establishes a Cyber-Security Coordinator within the Council Secretariat to act in close liaison with EU institutions and member governments. However, there should be no attempt at a centralized, cross-cutting approach to cyber-security as this would conflict with the political character and structures of the EU. Notes to Editors Cyber-Security and Politically, Socially and Religiously Motivated Cyber-Attacks is published by the European Parliament's Office of the Director-General for External Policies. The study was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs. The paper was written by Dr Paul Cornish, Head, International Security Programme and Carrington Chair in International Security, Chatham House. * In March 2009, Chatham House will publish Cyber-Space and the National Security of the United Kingdom, a major report, sponsored by Detica Ltd. This major piece of research, co-authored by Dr Paul Cornish, Dr Rex Hughes and Mr David Livingstone, will analyze the perceived threats from cyber-space to the security of the UK. More information on the Cyberspace and National Security project >> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 11:28:46 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/481/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/481/ The UK food chain needs to be prepared to manage continued volatility in global food markets, says a new Chatham House report. Looking ahead, food supply arrangements will be required to operate profitably around a significantly higher price norm, one that reflects the true cost of resources and incorporates wider social and ecological considerations. Food Futures: Rethinking UK Strategy, says the UK is not immune to what happens in the global food system. The recent spike in food commodity prices underlined our interdependency and demonstrated the political and social importance of affordable food. Some of the effects of change are already being felt as access to scarce resources becomes a strategic concern for many countries. These pressures and the market responses they bring could provoke defensive trade and political reactions by governments, disrupting trade. This report argues for action now to ensure future food supply needs can be met. The environmental impacts of modern agriculture and of the wider food chain can no longer be ignored. More food will have to be produced, but much more sustainably. Increased public investment in research on agriculture and food will be needed. National and devolved governments must recognize their role as drivers of transformation. The UK government and European Union should be taking a lead - developing a vision for the future and the policies to catalyse that transition. For the consumer, new uncertainties over the affordability of food, along with continuing environmental and health concerns, will mean changes in consumption patterns. Notes to Editors Read Food Futures: Rethinking UK Strategy >> This report is published as part of the project, 'UK Food Supply in the 21st Century: The New Dynamic'. For media enquiries please contact: Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager Direct: +44 (0)20 7957 5739 Mobile: +44 (0)7917 757 528 ENDS Wed, 28 Jan 2009 10:16:22 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/480/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/480/ Recent falls in food prices are no more than a temporary reprieve and are set to resume their upward trend once the world emerges from the current economic downturn. This is one of the conclusions of a new Chatham House report, The Feeding of the Nine Billion: Global Food Security for the 21st Century, which urges policymakers to start planning now for a future 'food crunch'. The report assesses the outlook for global food supply in a long term context of expanding population, increasing affluence, climate change concerns and growing resource scarcity. The report's author, Alex Evans, says: 'The 20th century Green Revolution made incredible advances in improving crop yields. Now, we need a 21st century Green Revolution to repeat that success. Although enough food is produced today to feed everyone, nearly a billion people are undernourished - about the same number as are overweight. 'Food supply will have to grow by 50% by 2030 to meet projected demand but climate change, water scarcity and competition for land will make it much harder to achieve this demanding target. A return to high oil prices will also increase food prices, as more crops are converted into bio-fuels.' The report recommends investing more in agriculture, with a focus on small farmers; improving importer countries' security of supply through changes to trade rules; and a new 'International Energy Agency For Food' to manage a global system of food reserves and help protect against future price spikes. Sam Bickersteth, Head of Programme Policy at Oxfam, said: 'This report should act as a wake-up call for all those who believe that the food crisis of the last two years is over. World leaders have a window of opportunity to act to prevent a further escalation of the crisis. They must produce coordinated action now and reverse decades of under-investment in agriculture to prevent millions more people falling into hunger.' Notes to Editors Read The Feeding of the Nine Billion >> Alex Evans is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation, at New York University, where he runs CIC's work on climate change and global public goods. From 2003 to 2006 he worked as Special Adviser to Secretary of State Hilary Benn at the UK Department for International Development. For interview bids please contact: Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager Direct: +44 (0)20 7957 5739 Mobile: +44 (0)7917 757 528 Email Nicola Norton Fri, 23 Jan 2009 11:28:29 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/479/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/479/ Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House says: 'It is just possible that the country's financial meltdown will now give President Obama the chance to carry out one of the largest investments in America's economic regeneration in over 70 years. If so, America could once again lead principally by example rather than by diplomatic weight and military force. Conscious of the responsibility that he carries and the intentions of some of America's enemies, he reminded Americans that 'our nation is at war'. The critical difference is that he did not say America was at war against terrorism -which is, after all, a dogma - but against 'a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Overall, it is to be hoped that the magnanimous self-confidence and pragmatism which were the themes of President Obama's inaugural address will also now be the hallmarks of his presidency.' Read full comment >> Experts available for comment: Robin Niblett +44 (0)207 957 5702 Robin Shepherd +44 (0)7875 446 698 Richard Whitman +44 (0)7951 541 890 Event Thursday 22 January 2009 17:30 to 18:30 Regaining the Initiative: Opportunities for the US Under President ObamaDr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House, will evaluate current US foreign policy, assess promising areas of future US influence, and suggest specific ways for US engagement to impact on global and regional challenges. Articles The Limits and Potential of Obama's Foreign Policy: Living Up To Expectations, Dr Robin Niblett, The World Today, January 2009 US Policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Antidote to Insurgency Ayesha Khan, The World Today, January 2009 Bringing Hegemony Back In: The United States and International Order Ian Clark, International Affairs, January 2009 United States Presidency and Europe: Over to You, EuropeDr Robin Niblett, The World Today, December 2008 Transcript Major Foreign Policy Challenges for the Next US PresidentZbigniew Brzezinski speaking at Chatham House on 17 December 2008 For all media enquiries, please contact the press office: Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager nnorton@chathamhouse.org.uk +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 +44 (0) 7917 757 528 Tue, 20 Jan 2009 16:53:45 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/478/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/478/ Civilians in all regions of Sudan face a serious risk of renewed violence and conflict if the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) fails, says a new Chatham House report. The CPA was signed on 9 January 2005 by Sudan's National Congress Party-led central government and the Southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army, ending more than two decades of war. The conflict killed and displaced millions of people. On the fourth anniversary of its signing, the CPA is at a critical juncture. Elections are due in 2009, and they will set the stage for a referendum on self-determination for Southern Sudan in 2011. A breakdown in the CPA would have devastating effects for all Sudan. Many decades of mismanaged and unequal development have left this country facing a serious risk of fragmentation. The CPA's proposals for a fairer division of wealth and power could stop this fragmentation. If they are not implemented, Sudan could see a replication of the crisis in Darfur across the country. Against the Gathering Storm: Securing Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement, by Dr Edward Thomas, calls on international supporters of the CPA to engage urgently, thoughtfully and multilaterally with the CPA process. The crisis in Darfur and the possible indictment of President Omar al-Bashir have forced Bashir's National Congress Party to re-examine domestic alliances and consider previously unpalatable deals, outside CPA processes. A reversal of progress now will bring heavy future costs. Stalling or a reversal in implementation would be a tragic outcome for the CPA, which, despite its flaws, remains the most thoughtful, considered and far-reaching document in Sudanese history. Its ideas for sharing wealth and power offer a model for other countries in the Horn of Africa. Notes to Editors Read Against the Gathering Storm: Securing Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement >> Read press release in Arabic >> Read Executive Summary in Arabic >> The report is launched at Chatham House on 9 January. Details >> Edward Thomas holds a PhD in the History of Sudan and has published extensively on Sudanese politics. He has worked for the United Nations in Sudan, and with UNICEF in Khartoum as a child protection adviser. Edward Thomas is available for interview. Contact him directly on +44 (0)7760 216 994 PRESS OFFICE Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 +44 (0) 7917 757 528 ENDS Thu, 08 Jan 2009 15:20:28 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/477/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/477/ Chatham House has been named as the No. 1 think tank based outside of the United States in a major survey published in the new issue of Foreign Policy magazine. Chatham House is also listed in second place behind the Washington DC-based Brookings Institution on the survey's world ranking of Security and International Affairs Think Tanks. The survey, Think Tank Index, is undertaken by the international relations programme at the University of Pennsylvania and offers the first comprehensive ranking of the world's top think tanks. Classifying itself as 'the insiders' guide', it is based on a worldwide survey of hundreds of scholars and experts. The index is published in full in the January/February issue of Foreign Policy. Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House said, 'I am delighted that Chatham House's work has been recognized in this way. We have worked hard in recent years to ensure that Chatham House is in a position to offer independent analysis and influential ideas on what we consider to be the major new challenges to international security and prosperity. This survey confirms that we are living up to the goals we have set ourselves'. Top Non-US Think Tanks 1 - Chatham House 2 - International Institute for Strategic Studies 3 - Stockholm International Peace Research Institute 4 - Overseas Development Institute 5 - Centre for European Policy Studies Top Security and International Affairs Think Tanks 1 - Brookings Institution 2 - Chatham House 3 - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 4 - Council on Foreign Relations 5 - International Institute for Strategic Studies Chatham House is also listed in one of the survey's five categories of think tanks, named 'The Scholars' which are described as: 'the stars of the think tank world, these powerhouses of policy are regularly relied upon to set agendas and craft new initiatives'. Notes to Editors READ FULL SURVEY RESULTS HERE Contact Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 +44 (0) 7917 757 528 ENDS Tue, 06 Jan 2009 17:13:54 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/476/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/476/ '…..we have not exhausted our non-military options in confronting this threat; in many ways, we have yet to try them.' Barack Obama Iran's economic and political weaknesses could provide the catalyst for a breakthrough in the nuclear dispute, says a new Chatham House report compiled by the former UK ambassador to Iran, Sir Richard Dalton. Iran's domestic politics, its energy industry and its regional power may not be strong enough for the Iranian leadership to resist international demands for a serious negotiation over its nuclear programme. Despite the triumphalist rhetoric, the economy remains Iran's Achilles' heel. Sanctions have their place, but will be limited in their effects. Both the United States and Iran should recognize that they will not achieve what they want through the policies they have adopted so far. However, Iran may be closer to reviewing its strategy than is commonly understood. Iran: Breaking the Nuclear Deadlock grapples with how negotiations might be conducted and concludes that a breakthrough starting in 2009 is possible. The report also cautions that the debate about military action against Iran has not weighed sufficiently what behaviour by Iran would constitute an unacceptable threat. Any military intervention which was not necessary to respond to the threat of an imminent attack by Iran would be contrary to international law. Richard Dalton says: 'It is clear that no strategy, including attacking known nuclear facilities in Iran or a comprehensive agreement, can deliver a guarantee that Iran will not build a nuclear weapon. 'It is not clear yet whether there is any offer Iran will be prepared to accept in return for transparency, acceptance of intrusive monitoring in the future, and long-term international involvement in its nuclear affairs. 'All the available options are about managing risk and providing degrees of assurance against anticipated dangers.' Notes to Editors Read the report - Iran: Breaking the Nuclear Deadlock >> The report was launched at Chatham House on Wednesday 17 December. Participants: Sir Richard Dalton, Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme and formerly British Ambassador to Iran (2002-2006) Professor Ali Ansari, Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme and Director of the Institute of Iranian Studies, University of St Andrews Elizabeth Wilmshurst, Associate Fellow, International Law, Chatham House. Richard Dalton is available for interview. PRESS OFFICE Nicola Norton, Media Relations Manager +44 (0) 20 7957 5739 +44 (0) 7917 757 528 ENDS Thu, 11 Dec 2008 11:57:59 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/475/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/475/ President Kufuor has successfully promoted Ghana as a haven of political and economic stability but, as he comes to the end of his two terms in office, cracks are beginning to appear and tensions are building between ruling and opposition parties. Read article >> This article by Sola Tayo was published in the November 2008 issue of The World Today. Current issue >> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:40:53 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/474/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/474/ Yemen presents a 'perfect storm' of problems for Western governments confronting the prospect of state failure in this strategically important Red Sea country, according to a new Chatham House paper. Yemen is the poorest state in the Arab world, where jihadi networks appear to be growing as operating conditions in Iraq and Saudi Arabia become more difficult. Yemen's economy is heavily dependent on revenue from oil sales but oil production is declining. Based on original research conducted over 16 months in Yemen, this paper by journalist and film-maker Ginny Hill says future instability in this weak and incomplete state has the potential to expand a lawless zone stretching from northern Kenya, through Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, to Saudi Arabia. Piracy, smuggling and violent jihad would flourish, with implications for the security of shipping routes, the transit of oil through the Suez Canal and the internal security of Yemen's neighbours. 'Yemen: Fear of Failure' concludes that Yemen's window of opportunity to shape its own future and create a post-oil economy is narrowing. This fragile state faces several complex and intertwined challenges: the strain on political instability posed by the impending transition of power, multiple internal threats to security, rapid population growth and dwindling water resources. The scale of the problem and the speed of action required pose a challenge both to the international community and to advocates of reform within Yemen. Western governments need to work towards an effective regional approach that includes the tacit approval of Saudi Arabia. The prospect of state collapse in Yemen would reduce any chance of progress towards peace in Somalia and further endanger the security of countries throughout the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa. NOTES TO EDITORS Read paper: Yemen: Fear of Failure Ginny Hill is a freelance journalist and TV producer. She has reported from Yemen and the Horn of Africa for the BBC, the Economist, the Christian Science Monitor and Jane's Islamic Affairs Analysis. Her film on Somali refugees in Yemen was broadcast by Channel 4 News, CNN, al-Jazeera English and France 3. Ginny Hill is available for interview on +44 (0) 7779 790 356 For all other media enquiries, please contact Nicola Norton +44 (0)20 7957 5739 pressoffice@chathamhouse.org.uk Ends Wed, 12 Nov 2008 11:31:35 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/473/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/473/ Chatham House experts offer their perspectives on the key foreign policy and economic challenges facing the new administration. The following quotes and comments from Chatham House are available for immediate use. Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House Mr Obama's first job will be to keep Americans safe and not to please the international gallery. This does not mean that Europeans should resign themselves to be disappointed. Read full comment >> Alex Vines, Research Director and Head, Africa Programme: Reining in stratospherically high expectations both from within Africa, and from within his own administration, will be a principle pre-occupation for the first years of Obama's Africa policy. Read full comment >> Dr Gareth Price, Head, Asia Programme: Barack Obama, whose formative years were spent in Indonesia, in some ways brings greater cultural awareness of the diverse region than any previous president. Read full comment >> Dr DeAnne Julius, Chairman, Chatham House: The downward lurch of the US economy during the final month of the campaign undoubtedly helped Mr Obama win the election. Can he now return the favour by arresting the economic decline? The fundamentals are against him. Read full comment >> Dr Paola Subacchi, Research Director, International Economics Cries for the end of US economic hegemony may be premature. Despite being badly hit by the credit crisis, the US may still show great resilience. Read full comment >> Robin Shepherd, Senior Research Fellow, Europe There are many unanswered questions on Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel-Palestine and Russia. Obama needs to put meat on the bone now. Read full comment >> Dr Claire Spencer, Head, Middle East Programme: The main headaches for the US administration will remain the three 'Is': Iran, Iraq and the lingering Israel-Palestine conflict. Read full comment >> James Sherr, Head, Russia and Eurasia Programme: It is important for the USA that Russia regain respect for its competence, interests and the judicious use of American power. Read full comment >> Notes to Editors Read all comments in full >> More information on the Chatham House Project, 'Rethinking the United States' International Role' >> Forthcoming event:Monday 17 November 2008 The Whitehead Lecture: Major Foreign Policy Challenges for the Next US President The 2008 Whitehead Lecture will be given by Dr Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Advisor to the President of the United States (1977-1981). Contact: Nicola Norton Media Relations Manager ++ (0) 20 7957 5739 ENDS Tue, 04 Nov 2008 17:48:08 +0000 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/471/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/471/ A new paper by Chatham House says that the once-in-a-century economic meltdown means that OECD countries' simultaneous collapse in consumer and business spending will get worse and more extraordinary 'out of the box' measures may still be needed before the situation turns around. The paper, Synchronized Dive Into Recession: Focus on Damage Limitation, by Vanessa Rossi, Senior Research Fellow, International Economics Programme, also analyzes China's increasingly important role as the single largest contributor to economic growth. Summary Points The global financial system has suffered a once-in-a-century meltdown that almost brought the world economy to a halt in late September. Confidence and trust have been shattered. In spite of concerted and extraordinary efforts on the part of central banks and political leaders, including recapitalizing the banks, it is not yet certain that the waves of panic and destruction have been halted. Many of the repercussions have yet to emerge, including possible legal action as well as economic damage. Even before this latest explosion, the leading OECD economies were plunging into an unusually synchronized recession, driven by the simultaneous collapse in consumer and business spending. This will now get worse. Will a severe OECD recession engulf the rest of the world? Up to mid-2008, the emerging markets remained strong - 'decoupling' did work. Now the crisis has deepened, no region will remain immune to shock waves. This time round, the outcome for China will be much more important because it has doubled its share of world GDP over the last decade and is now the single largest contributor to global growth. China will fight to avoid recession, but can it win? If it can keep up growth, bolstered by its enormous pool of savings pent up in the banking system, this will provide important sustenance for the global economy. Without doubt, this crisis will require substantial, persistent and coordinated global efforts to turn around - possibly including yet more extraordinary 'out of the box' measures. The US and EU are now getting to grips with the immensity of the task. The message has become 'whatever it takes' to halt further widespread destruction. Note to Editors Read Synchronized Dive Into Recession: Focus on Damage Limitation Vanessa Rossi is Senior Research Fellow, International Economics Programme, Chatham House. Contact Nicola Norton Media Relations Manager ++ (0) 20 7957 5739 ENDS Wed, 15 Oct 2008 10:13:40 +0100 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/470/ http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/470/ The current financial crisis should come as no surprise, writes Dr Paola Subacchi in this month's The World Today. As early as 2004 structural cracks became apparent and now the stability of the international financial system is at stake. The ultimate goal is to prevent a systemic crisis but it is not clear who should take the lead. Also in this month's issue: Martin Plaut, Africa Editor of the BBC World Service, examines the crisis facing South Africa following the removal of President Thabo Mbeki from office. He concludes that what is at stake is the question of whether the judiciary is above political interference. Romilly Gregory of Oxfam explains how cheap mobile phone devices and mobile internet services are fast-becoming critical tools in helping a billion people around the world. Other articles look at Russia and Georgia and the international arms trade. More about The World Today >> Full list of contents: Financial Crisis: Panic, Blame and Crash Avoidance Paola Subacchi Economic Crisis: Down They Fall Vanessa Rossi Russia and Georgia: A Dangerous GameJames Sherr Moscow's Domestic Policy: Russian Roulette Lilia Shevtsova Georgia, Russia and Energy: Going for Gas John Roberts Two-Tier NATO: Alliance DividedTimo Noetzel and Benjamin Schreer Food Reserves: Just One Failed Harvest...Daryll E Ray and Harwood D Schaffer Mobile Phones: Dialling Change Romilly Gregory South African Judicary: Threat to JusticeMartin Plaut South Africa's Leadership: Uncertain Future James Hamill International Arms Trade Treaty: Gun Control Paul Cornish Mon, 06 Oct 2008 12:56:19 +0100